Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Middle East war
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals deep voter dissatisfaction with Anthony Albanese’s Labor government amid rising fuel prices and the Middle East conflict, pushing support to its lowest since the May election. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote hovering around 31-32%, while One Nation’s support remains strong at 26-29%, outpacing the Coalition’s record-low 17-21%. The US military strike on Iran has faced overwhelming disapproval (72%), with voters largely blaming Trump for the petrol crisis rather than the government. Albanese’s approval ratings have plummeted, and the government has responded by underwriting fuel imports to combat shortages, though critics warn of hoarding. Contradictions exist between polls on One Nation’s exact vote share and Labor’s stability, while gender gaps in war approval and preference flows add nuance to the political landscape.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in the latest Newspoll (from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2024 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge poll, both higher than the Coalition’s 21% (Newspoll) or 17% (Redbridge).
- The Coalition’s primary vote fell to a record low of 17% in the Redbridge poll and 21% in Newspoll, with Angus Taylor’s net satisfaction rating at 35% satisfied vs. 42% dissatisfied.
- 72% of voters disapproved of US military action against Iran in both Newspoll and Redbridge poll, with 23% approving.
- Anthony Albanese announced Australia would underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages, including ‘shiploads’ of fuel at non-commercial terms.
- 61% of voters in the Redbridge poll blamed US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blamed the Australian government.
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating dropped to -17 in Redbridge poll, with 57% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied in Newspoll.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Tanya Plibersek confirmed Labor is considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures, stating ‘People are experiencing higher fuel prices because of the conflict in the Middle East.’
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and noted Iran’s economic leverage over the world, saying ‘they’re going to question the judgment of the President as this drags on.’
- Albanese warned against petrol hoarding, citing Bunnings running out of jerry cans and stating ‘That’s not the Australian way. People need to take what they need, and no more.’
- The article notes the US has not formally requested Australian military support for the Iran conflict, despite Trump’s public criticism of Australia’s stance.
- The Redbridge poll found Labor led One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis, while Labor led the Coalition by 55% to 45% under May election preference flows.
- 65% of every age group disapproved of US military action in Iran, with One Nation voters most likely to support the war compared to Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters.
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%).
- The article highlights that Australia has denied receiving any formal request for military support in the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s public comments.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote slipped slightly to 26%, while Article 2 reports One Nation’s vote rose to 29% in the Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 reports Labor’s primary vote at 31% (down from 36%), while Article 2 states Labor’s support remained unchanged at 32% in Redbridge.
- Article 1 claims the Coalition’s primary vote is 21%, but Article 2 reports it dropped to a record low of 17% in Redbridge.
- Article 1 does not mention gender differences in approval of US military action, while Article 2 states men (30%) were twice as likely to approve as women (16%).
- Article 1 does not reference the 61% of voters blaming Trump for the petrol crisis, which is mentioned in Article 2.
Source Articles
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