Queensland Stafford by-election results and implications for Labor and LNP
Consensus Summary
The Queensland Stafford by-election, triggered by the death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April 2026, saw Labor’s Luke Richmond narrowly defeat LNP’s Fiona Hammond with 51.2% of the two-party preferred vote, a margin of just 700 votes. Despite the win, Labor suffered a 4.1% swing away from it, reducing its margin to 1.2%, raising concerns about its future prospects. The by-election was historically significant as Stafford is a safe Labor seat, won nine times in the last ten elections. The LNP campaigned heavily on fuel sovereignty and health issues, while Labor focused on local healthcare concerns. Early voting figures showed strong participation, though turnout dropped slightly from 2024. The absence of One Nation and the Greens’ open ticket preferences were noted as factors influencing the result. Steven Miles’ leadership was described as secure for now, though internal Labor factions expressed dissatisfaction with the swing. The LNP celebrated the swing as a sign of growing support in Brisbane, while Labor attributed the result to a fragmented left-wing vote.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The by-election was triggered by the death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan, found dead in his home in April 2026.
- Labor candidate Luke Richmond defeated LNP candidate Fiona Hammond in the Stafford by-election, winning 51.2% of the two-party preferred vote (700 votes ahead).
- Labor suffered a 4.1% swing away from it to the LNP after preferences, reducing its margin to 1.2%.
- Stafford is a historically safe Labor seat, won by Labor in nine of the last ten elections (since 2001).
- The by-election was held on May 17, 2026, with polling day on May 15, 2026.
- Fiona Hammond is a former Brisbane City councillor and LNP candidate who previously contested Stafford in the 2024 state election.
- Luke Richmond was the Labor candidate and former assistant state secretary of Queensland Labor.
- One Nation did not contest the Stafford by-election, citing focus on the 2028 state election.
- The Greens ran an open ticket, not directing voters on preference allocation.
- Early voting figures showed 35% of the electorate’s 41,000 voters had cast ballots by Thursday night before polling day.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Premier David Crisafulli described the LNP as the 'underdog' in the campaign, contrasting with Labor's vision.
- Labor claimed the contest was a referendum on health, with the LNP disputing claims about hospital bed cuts.
- The LNP campaigned heavily on fuel sovereignty and long-term fuel supply announcements.
- Queensland Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen expressed concern about a potential turnout drop to 80%, down from 90% in 2024.
- Luke Richmond described the campaign as 'one of the great joys of my life'.
- Fiona Hammond conceded it was a 'Labor seat' but predicted the contest would be 'close'.
- Steven Miles dismissed attacks that a swing to Labor would be an indictment on his leadership.
- Jimmy Sullivan was expelled from Labor in May 2025 over legal and medical concerns, following a months-long leave of absence.
- Sullivan had a 6.83% swing against him in the 2024 election before his expulsion.
- Political scientist Paul Williams predicted a 51-52% LNP win after preferences, calling a Labor loss 'huge' and 'terminal' for Miles’ leadership.
- Williams suggested One Nation’s absence could have cost the LNP 12-20% of the vote, potentially guaranteeing an LNP win on preferences.
- Stafford was described as a 'historically working-class suburb' in north Brisbane.
- Labor claimed a 'biggest ever grassroots campaign' with 34,000 doors knocked and 27,000 calls made.
- Steven Miles accused the LNP of benefiting from a 'deal' with One Nation to not contest the seat, while using taxpayer funds for advertising.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian predicted a 51-52% LNP win after preferences, while ABC and Newscomau confirmed Labor won 51.2% of the two-party preferred vote.
- The Guardian stated a Labor loss would be 'terminal' for Steven Miles’ leadership, while ABC and Newscomau reported Miles’ leadership was 'safe for now' after the win.
- The Guardian claimed One Nation’s absence could have cost the LNP 12-20% of the vote, but ABC and Newscomau did not quantify its potential impact.
- ABC reported early voting at 35% of 41,000 voters, while Newscomau did not provide specific early voting figures.
Source Articles
Voters head to polls for Stafford by-election
Labor candidate Luke Richmond wants to make the contest a referendum on health, while LNP candidate Fiona Hammond is focussed on fuel, the cost of living, and crime.
Labor claims victory in Stafford by-election
Labor candidate Luke Richmond claims victory over the LNP's Fiona Hammond in a tight race in the north Brisbane electorate of Stafford.
Miles declares 'a win is a win' as Labor squeaks by in by-election
Labor candidate Luke Richmond will become the next member for Stafford, but the party's vote dropped several points.
Stafford byelection tipped to swing towards LNP as danger looms for Steven Miles’ leadership of Queensland Labor
Voters in northern Brisbane electorate go to polls after sudden death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast A byelection in the Brisbane seat of Stafford is expected to swing towards the sitting LNP Queensland government in a result experts say would likely be fatal to former premier Steven Miles’ leadership of the Labor party. Voters in the northern Brisbane electorate of Stafford have gone to the polls after the sudden death of for
Labor on track to win by-election in Brisbane seat of Stafford
At the end of counting on Saturday night, there has been a 4.1 per cent swing against Labor after preferences, with additional postal votes still to be counted.
Labor claims victory in crucial by-election
Labor has claimed victory in a crucial state by-election, despite the party suffering a significant swing and only a few hundred votes separating two candidates.