Queensland Stafford byelection between LNP and Labor candidates
Consensus Summary
The Stafford byelection in Queensland’s northern Brisbane seat is a tightly contested race between Labor’s Luke Richmond and LNP’s Fiona Hammond, triggered by the death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April 2026. Historically a safe Labor seat since 1989, Stafford’s 5.3% margin from the 2024 election makes it vulnerable, especially after Sullivan’s expulsion from Labor in May 2025. Both parties are campaigning on local issues: Labor on healthcare cuts at the local hospital, while the LNP emphasizes fuel sovereignty. Early voting suggests a turnout of around 80%, down from 90% in 2024, raising concerns about voter engagement. Political analysts, including Griffith University’s Paul Williams, predict the LNP could win with 51–52% of the vote, a result that would deal a severe blow to Labor leader Steven Miles’ leadership. The Greens’ refusal to recommend preferences and One Nation’s absence from the race add complexity, with the LNP potentially benefiting from fragmented minor-party support. Miles has downplayed the byelection’s impact, but a loss would mark the first time in 50 years a state opposition party has lost a byelection to the sitting government.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Stafford byelection is being held on 2026-05-16 (Saturday) due to the death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April 2026.
- The two main candidates are Labor’s Luke Richmond and LNP’s Fiona Hammond.
- Stafford is a marginal seat with a 5.3% two-party preferred margin in the 2024 election, historically held by Labor since 1989 (except 2001–2006).
- Jimmy Sullivan was expelled from the Labor Party in May 2025 after a months-long leave of absence and government attacks in parliament.
- The Greens did not recommend preferences to either major party in their how-to-vote card for this byelection.
- One Nation did not stand a candidate in the Stafford byelection.
- Early voting turnout (as of 2026-05-15) was 35% of the 41,000 electorate, with a projected final turnout of around 80% (down from 90% in 2024).
- The LNP’s campaign has focused heavily on fuel sovereignty, while Labor has emphasized healthcare cuts at the local hospital.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Luke Richmond described the campaign as 'one of the great joys of my life'.
- Premier David Crisafulli called the LNP the 'underdog' but emphasized their policy vision.
- The Greens’ candidate, Jess Lane, secured 18% of the primary vote in the 2024 state election.
- Queensland Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen expressed concern about the projected 80% turnout, down from 90% in 2024.
- The LNP disputed Labor’s claim about hospital bed cuts during the campaign.
- Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams predicted the LNP’s Fiona Hammond would win 51–52% of the vote after preferences.
- Williams stated that even reducing Labor’s margin from 55% to 53% would technically be a loss for Labor and Steven Miles’ leadership.
- Williams noted One Nation’s absence could allow them to poll 12–20% of the vote, aiding the LNP on preferences.
- Steven Miles dismissed the byelection’s impact on his leadership, saying the result would not change the government or Labor’s leadership.
- The Greens’ open ticket preference policy was described as only consequential in a very close result.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states the 2024 election saw a 6.83% swing against Jimmy Sullivan, while the ABC does not mention this specific swing figure.
- The Guardian claims the LNP’s victory would be 'unexpected and historic,' while the ABC frames it as a 'close' contest without emphasizing its rarity.
- The Guardian attributes a 5.3% two-party preferred margin to Labor in 2024, while the ABC states it was 'just over 5%' without specifying the exact figure.
- The Guardian suggests One Nation’s absence could push their vote to 12–20%, while the ABC states One Nation is focusing on the 2028 election and did not stand a candidate.
Source Articles
Stafford byelection tipped to swing towards LNP as danger looms for Steven Miles’ leadership of Queensland Labor
Voters in northern Brisbane electorate go to polls after sudden death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast A byelection in the Brisbane seat of Stafford is expected to swing towards the sitting LNP Queensland government in a result experts say would likely be fatal to former premier Steven Miles’ leadership of the Labor party. Voters in the northern Brisbane electorate of Stafford have gone to the polls after the sudden death of for
Voters head to polls for Stafford by-election
Labor candidate Luke Richmond wants to make the contest a referendum on health, while LNP candidate Fiona Hammond is focussed on fuel, the cost of living, and crime.