Australian political polling shows declining Labor support amid fuel crisis and Middle East war
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals deepening voter dissatisfaction with Anthony Albanese’s Labor government amid a fuel crisis and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote has plummeted to its lowest since the 2023 election, with support dropping to 31% or 32%—down from 36% in November. One Nation’s vote remains strong, though slightly divergent between sources (26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge), while the Coalition’s support continues to decline, hitting a record low of 17% in Redbridge. The US military strike on Iran has sparked widespread disapproval, with 72% of voters opposing the action and 63% rejecting Australia’s potential involvement in the Strait of Hormuz. Voter frustration is compounded by rising fuel prices, inflation, and uncertainty over the Iran conflict, with 61% blaming US President Donald Trump for the petrol crisis. Albanese’s government has responded by underwriting fuel imports and warning against hoarding, but his net approval rating remains negative at -17. Contradictions between sources include slight variations in vote percentages and gender-specific approval rates for US military action, with men more supportive than women.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in Newspoll (down from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2023 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge poll (both sources).
- The Coalition’s primary vote is at 21% in Newspoll and 17% in Redbridge poll (record low).
- 72% of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran (reported in both Newspoll sources).
- Anthony Albanese announced Australia will underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages.
- 61% of voters blame US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis (Redbridge poll).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is at -17 (57% dissatisfied, 39% satisfied) in Newspoll.
- Australia has denied receiving any formal request from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government is considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures.
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and warned of economic pain.
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns, with Albanese warning against excessive fuel stockpiling.
- Albanese stated fuel security is a matter of ‘personal responsibility’ and criticized Australians filling multiple jerry cans.
- The US attack on Iran is described as ‘smashing support for Albanese’s government’ and driving voters to One Nation.
- Albanese mentioned Australia will also secure additional fertiliser supplies under the new fuel security measures.
- Redbridge poll shows Labor leads One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis (55% to 45% over Coalition).
- 63% of voters oppose Australia providing military support in the Strait of Hormuz, while 30% support it.
- One Nation voters were most likely to support US military action against Iran compared to Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters.
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%).
- The affordability crisis, Iran war uncertainty, surging inflation, and fuel prices dominated national conversation during polling.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote slipped slightly to 26%, while Article 2 states it rose to 29% in Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 reports Labor’s primary vote at 31% (down from 36%), while Article 2 reports Labor’s primary vote unchanged at 32% in Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 claims the Coalition’s primary vote is 21%, but Article 2 states it dropped to a record low of 17% in Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 does not mention gender differences in approval of US military action, while Article 2 highlights men (30%) are twice as likely to approve as women (16%).
- Article 1 attributes blame for petrol prices to the Middle East war and US action, while Article 2 specifically states 61% blame US President Donald Trump.
Source Articles
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