Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Middle East war
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals a sharp decline in support for Anthony Albanese’s Labor government amid rising fuel prices and global instability caused by the Middle East war. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote dropping to around 31-32%, while One Nation’s support remains strong at 26-29%, surpassing the Coalition’s 17-21%. The US military action against Iran is widely unpopular, with 72% of voters disapproving, and a majority opposing Australia providing military support. The fuel crisis has intensified, with hoarding concerns leading to shortages of jerry cans, and the government intervening to secure additional fuel cargoes. While both sources agree on the broad trends, discrepancies exist in exact vote percentages and additional details like voter blame for the petrol crisis and gender-based approval ratings for US military action.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in the latest Newspoll (from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2024 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% (Newspoll) and 29% (Redbridge), both higher than the Coalition’s 21% (Newspoll) and 17% (Redbridge).
- 72% of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran, with only 23% approving (reported in both polls).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is -17 (Newspoll) and 57% of voters are dissatisfied with his performance (Newspoll).
- Australia has not received a formal request from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 61% of voters blame US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blame the Australian government (Redbridge poll).
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns during the fuel crisis (mentioned in Article 1).
- Anthony Albanese announced Australia would underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages (Article 1).
- The Redbridge poll shows Labor leading One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government was considering new cost-of-living measures, including a potential cut to fuel excise.
- Anthony Albanese stated fuel security was a matter of ‘personal responsibility’ and warned against hoarding petrol, citing images of Australians filling four jerry cans at a time.
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and criticized the economic impact, noting Iran’s ability to disrupt global supply chains.
- The article includes a quote from Albanese discussing discussions with state premiers on potential shock measures like future fuel rationing and work-from-home rules.
- The article mentions the US attack on Iran was criticized by Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie, who is pro-America but critical of the strategic decision.
- The Redbridge poll found 61% of voters solely blamed Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blamed the government.
- Anthony Albanese’s net favourability rating dropped to -17, a decline of 18 percentage points since December 2023.
- Angus Taylor’s dissatisfaction rating was 42%, with 35% satisfied and 23% uncommitted (compared to Albanese’s 57% dissatisfaction).
- The Redbridge poll showed One Nation’s primary vote at 29%, while Labor’s remained unchanged at 32%.
- The article notes that One Nation voters were most likely to support US military action against Iran, ahead of Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters.
- Men were twice as likely to approve of the US military action (30%) as women (16%).
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote slipped slightly to 26%, while Article 2 reports One Nation’s primary vote rose to 29% in the Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 reports Labor’s primary vote at 31% (Newspoll), while Article 2 reports Labor’s primary vote unchanged at 32% (Redbridge).
- Article 1 does not mention the 61% of voters blaming Donald Trump for the petrol crisis, which is reported in Article 2.
- Article 1 does not include the breakdown of dissatisfaction ratings for Angus Taylor (42% dissatisfied), which is reported in Article 2.
- Article 1 does not mention the gender disparity in approval of US military action (30% men vs 16% women), which is reported in Article 2.
Source Articles
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