Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Middle East war
Consensus Summary
Australian political polls reveal Labor’s support has plummeted to its lowest since the 2023 election, with Anthony Albanese’s primary vote dropping to 31% amid rising fuel prices and public frustration over the Middle East war. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show One Nation surging to 26-29%, outpacing the Coalition’s 17-21%, while Labor’s net approval rating sits at -17. A majority of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran, with 72% opposing it and 61% blaming US President Donald Trump for the petrol crisis. The government has intervened by underwriting fuel imports and warning against hoarding, but internal divisions persist, with men more supportive of US military action than women. Contradictions exist between polls on One Nation’s exact vote share and the Coalition’s decline, highlighting varying survey methodologies.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in Newspoll (down from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2023 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge, both higher than the Coalition’s 21% (Newspoll) or 17% (Redbridge).
- 72% of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran, with only 23% approving (reported in both polls).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is -17 (57% dissatisfied, 39% satisfied) in Newspoll, down from December 2023 levels.
- Australia has not received a formal request from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s criticism.
- 61% of voters blame US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blame the Australian government (Redbridge poll).
- Labor’s two-party preferred lead over One Nation is 53% to 47% in Redbridge, and over the Coalition is 55% to 45%.
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns during the fuel crisis (mentioned in Article 1).
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Anthony Albanese announced Australia would underwrite the purchase of shiploads of fuel and fertiliser to address supply chain disruptions, calling it the ‘biggest intervention to date.’
- Albanese stated fuel security is a matter of ‘personal responsibility’ and warned against hoarding petrol, citing images of Australians filling four jerry cans at once.
- Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government is considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures, stating ‘People are experiencing higher fuel prices because of the conflict in the Middle East.’
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation,’ citing economic pain and questioning US President Biden’s judgment, while noting his personal pro-American stance.
- Newspoll shows 63% of voters oppose Australia providing military support in the Strait of Hormuz, with 30% supporting it and 7% undecided.
- Redbridge poll found 61% of voters solely blame Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blame the government (not mentioned in Article 1).
- Angus Taylor’s net approval rating is -2 (42% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied, 23% uncommitted) in Newspoll, compared to Albanese’s -17.
- One Nation voters were most likely to support US military action against Iran, ahead of Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters (not detailed in Article 1).
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%) in the Redbridge poll (not specified in Article 1).
- The Australian’s Newspoll and Financial Review’s Redbridge poll both surveyed voters from Monday to Thursday/Friday last week, with slightly different sample sizes (1232 vs 1003).
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote slipped slightly to 26%, while Article 2 reports it rose to 29% in Redbridge.
- Article 1 reports the Coalition’s primary vote at 21%, but Article 2’s Redbridge poll shows it at a record low of 17%.
- Article 1 does not mention the 61% of voters blaming Trump for the petrol crisis, only the 14% blaming the government, while Article 2 highlights this as a key finding.
- Article 1 does not specify gender differences in approval of US military action, while Article 2 notes men (30%) were twice as likely to approve as women (16%).
- Article 1 quotes Andrew Hastie’s criticism of the US attack on Iran as a ‘huge miscalculation,’ but Article 2 does not include this direct quote or context.
Source Articles
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