Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Iran war backlash
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals Labor’s support has plummeted to its lowest since the May 2024 election, with Anthony Albanese’s government facing record dissatisfaction over the fuel crisis and US military action in Iran. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote at 31% or lower, while One Nation’s support remains elevated at 26-29%, though slightly down from recent peaks. The Coalition’s primary vote has hit a record low of 17-21%, reflecting voter frustration with economic pressures exacerbated by the Iran war and surging fuel prices. Overwhelming majorities—72% in both polls—oppose US military action, and Albanese’s net approval has collapsed to -17, with 57% dissatisfied. While both sources agree on Labor’s decline and public opposition to the war, they differ on specifics like One Nation’s exact vote shifts and the attribution of blame for petrol prices. The government has responded with emergency fuel measures, including underwriting international fuel purchases, while warning against hoarding amid shortages. Critics from both sides, including Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, have condemned the US strike as a strategic miscalculation, deepening public skepticism of foreign policy interventions.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in the latest Newspoll (from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2024 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge poll (both sources report recent figures).
- The Coalition’s primary vote is at a record low of 17% in Redbridge and 21% in Newspoll.
- 72% of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran, with only 23% approving (reported in both Newspoll results).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is at -17 (down 18 points since December 2023), with 57% dissatisfied with his performance.
- Australia has denied receiving formal requests from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s public criticism.
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to fuel hoarding concerns, with Albanese warning against excessive petrol stockpiling.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Redbridge poll found Labor led One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis (under May 2024 preferences).
- Redbridge poll showed 61% of voters blamed US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blamed the government.
- Newspoll found 63% of voters opposed Australia providing military support in the Strait of Hormuz, with 30% supporting it and 7% undecided.
- One Nation voters were most likely to support US military action in Iran, ahead of Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters.
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%).
- Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was -17, with 57% dissatisfied, 39% satisfied, and 4% uncommitted.
- Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government was considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures.
- Liberal MP Andrew Hastie called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and criticized Trump’s economic impact.
- Australia announced it would underwrite the purchase of ‘shiploads’ of fuel and fertiliser to address supply chain disruptions.
- Albanese stated fuel security was a ‘personal responsibility’ and warned against hoarding, citing Bunnings’ jerry can shortages.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 reports One Nation’s primary vote dropped to 26% in Newspoll, while Article 2 does not mention this specific drop and focuses on Labor’s decline.
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote dropped one point to 26% in Newspoll, but Article 2 does not provide a direct comparison to prior polls for One Nation.
- Article 1 notes One Nation’s primary vote dropped in Redbridge to 29% (from unspecified prior figure), while Article 2 does not reference Redbridge’s One Nation figure.
- Article 1 reports 61% blamed Trump for petrol prices, but Article 2 does not include this specific statistic—only mentions the broader fuel crisis context.
- Article 1 details gender splits on US military action (30% men vs 16% women approving), but Article 2 does not mention this breakdown.
Source Articles
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