Australian political polling shows declining Labor support amid fuel crisis and Middle East war
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals deepening voter dissatisfaction with Anthony Albanese’s Labor government amid a fuel crisis and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote has plummeted to around 31-32%, its lowest since the 2023 election, while One Nation’s support remains strong at 26-29%. The Coalition’s primary vote has collapsed to a record low of 17%, signaling severe internal challenges despite leadership changes. The US military strike on Iran has sparked widespread disapproval, with 72% of voters opposing the action and 63% rejecting Australia’s potential involvement in the Strait of Hormuz. Voters overwhelmingly blame US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, with 61% holding him responsible. Albanese’s government has responded by underwriting the purchase of additional fuel cargoes and fertiliser supplies, while warning against fuel hoarding. The polls also highlight partisan divides, with One Nation voters more supportive of US military action and men twice as likely to approve of it compared to women. The data underscores growing economic anxiety and skepticism toward both major parties, with One Nation capitalizing on voter frustration over cost-of-living pressures and foreign policy decisions.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in Newspoll (down from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2023 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge poll (both sources).
- The Coalition’s primary vote is at 21% in Newspoll and 17% in Redbridge poll (record low).
- 72% of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran (reported in both Newspoll sources).
- Anthony Albanese announced Australia will underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages.
- 61% of voters blame US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis (Redbridge poll).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is at -17 (57% dissatisfied, 39% satisfied) in Newspoll.
- Australia has denied receiving any formal request from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government is considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures.
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and warned of economic pain.
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns, with Albanese warning against excessive fuel stockpiling.
- Albanese stated fuel security is a matter of ‘personal responsibility’ and criticized Australians filling multiple jerry cans.
- The US attack on Iran is described as ‘smashing support for Albanese’s government’ and driving voters to One Nation.
- Albanese mentioned Australia will also secure additional fertiliser supplies under the new fuel security measures.
- Redbridge poll shows Labor leads One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis (55% to 45% over Coalition).
- 63% of voters oppose Australia providing military support in the Strait of Hormuz, while 30% support it.
- One Nation voters were most likely to support US military action against Iran compared to Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters.
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%).
- The affordability crisis, Iran war uncertainty, surging inflation, and fuel prices dominated national conversation during polling.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote slipped slightly to 26%, while Article 2 states it rose to 29% in Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 reports Labor’s primary vote at 31% (down from 36%), while Article 2 reports Labor’s primary vote unchanged at 32% in Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 claims Labor’s primary vote is at its lowest since the election (31%), but Article 2 does not explicitly state this as a new low beyond the 31% figure.
- Article 1 does not mention the Coalition’s primary vote dropping to a record low of 17% (only states it’s at 21%), while Article 2 reports this record low.
- Article 1 does not specify the gender breakdown of disapproval for US military action (only mentions age groups), while Article 2 details men (30%) were twice as likely to approve as women (16%).
Source Articles
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