Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Middle East war
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals deep voter dissatisfaction with Anthony Albanese’s Labor government amid rising fuel prices and the Middle East war, pushing Labor’s support to its lowest since the May 2024 election. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote hovering around 31-32%, while One Nation’s support remains strong at 26-29%, outpacing the Coalition’s record-low 17-21%. The US military action against Iran faces overwhelming disapproval (72%), with voters largely blaming Donald Trump (61%) for the petrol crisis rather than the Australian government. Albanese’s government has responded by underwriting fuel imports and warning against hoarding, but his net approval rating remains negative at -17. Contradictions exist between polls on One Nation’s exact vote share and Labor’s stability, while gender disparities in war approval are highlighted only in one source.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in the latest Newspoll (from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2024 election).
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge poll, both higher than the Coalition’s primary vote (21% in Newspoll, 17% in Redbridge).
- The Coalition’s primary vote reached a record low of 17% in the Redbridge poll, down from 23% in February 2024.
- 72% of voters disapproved of US military action against Iran, with only 23% approving (reported in both Newspoll sources).
- Anthony Albanese announced Australia would underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages, including ‘shiploads’ of fuel at subsidized rates.
- 61% of voters blamed US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while 14% blamed the Australian government (Redbridge poll).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is at -17, with 57% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied (Newspoll).
- Australia has denied receiving any formal request from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government was considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures, stating ‘People are experiencing higher fuel prices because of the conflict in the Middle East.’
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation,’ citing economic pain and questioning US President Biden’s judgment.
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding, with Albanese warning Australians against excessive fuel stockpiling.
- Albanese stated fuel security was a ‘personal responsibility’ and criticized Australians filling up multiple jerry cans at once.
- The Redbridge poll found Labor led One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis, while Labor led the Coalition by 55% to 45% under May election preferences.
- 65% of every age group disapproved of US military action in Iran, with One Nation voters most likely to support the war compared to Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters.
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%).
- Angus Taylor’s net approval rating was 42% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied, and 23% uncommitted (Newspoll).
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote slipped slightly to 26%, while Article 2 reports One Nation’s vote rose to 29% in the Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 reports Labor’s primary vote at 31% (Newspoll), while Article 2 reports Labor’s primary vote unchanged at 32% (Redbridge).
- Article 1 claims the Coalition’s primary vote is 21%, but Article 2 states the Coalition’s primary vote dropped to a record low of 17% in the Redbridge poll.
- Article 1 does not mention gender differences in approval of US military action, while Article 2 reports men (30%) were twice as likely to approve as women (16%).
- Article 1 does not specify the exact timing of the Newspoll (only ‘latest’), while Article 2 clarifies both polls were conducted during the week of Monday to Thursday/Friday last week.
Source Articles
One Nation rises as Coalition future dire: Poll
The Coalition’s popularity with voters has taken a turn for the worse as a cost of living crunch places immense pressure on voters....
Anthony Albanese smashed in latest Newspoll over fuel, war
As the Prime Minister prepares to discuss shock measures to address the fuel crisis, a new poll shows furious voters are turning on his government....