Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Iran war backlash
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals Labor’s declining support amid public frustration over the fuel crisis and US military action in Iran. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show Labor’s primary vote at 31%, down from its election peak, while One Nation’s support remains elevated at 26-29%, surpassing the Coalition’s 17-21%. The Iran war and soaring fuel prices dominate voter concerns, with 72% opposing US military action and 61% blaming global energy shocks for rising petrol costs. The Albanese government has responded by underwriting additional fuel imports and warning against hoarding, though internal dissatisfaction with the PM’s leadership remains high. While both sources agree on Labor’s decline and public opposition to the war, discrepancies exist in the exact polling figures for One Nation and the Coalition, as well as specific blame attribution for the fuel crisis.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in two recent polls (Newspoll and Redbridge), down from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2024 federal election
- One Nation’s primary vote was 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge, higher than the Coalition’s 21% (Newspoll) and 17% (Redbridge)
- 72% of voters disapproved of US military action against Iran in both Newspoll and Redbridge polls
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating was -17 in Redbridge and 57% dissatisfied with his performance in Newspoll
- The petrol crisis was primarily blamed on the Iran war (61% in Redbridge), with 14% blaming the government
- Australia announced it would underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Redbridge poll found Labor led One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis, with Labor leading the Coalition 55% to 45% under May 2024 preference flows
- 63% of voters opposed Australia providing military support in the Strait of Hormuz, with 30% supporting it
- One Nation voters were most likely to support US military action in Iran, ahead of Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%)
- Australia denied receiving any formal request for military support in the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s public criticism
- Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government was considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures
- Liberal MP Andrew Hastie called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and warned of economic pain
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns, with Albanese warning against irresponsible fuel stockpiling
- Albanese stated fuel security was a ‘personal responsibility’ and criticized Australians filling multiple jerry cans at once
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 reports One Nation’s primary vote dropped to 26% in Newspoll, while Article 2 states One Nation’s support ‘slipped slightly’ without specifying the exact percentage
- Article 1 states the Coalition’s primary vote was 21% in Newspoll, but Article 2 does not provide a direct comparison to prior polls for the Coalition’s exact percentage
- Article 1 claims the Coalition’s primary vote was a ‘record low of 17%’ in Redbridge, but Article 2 does not mention this specific figure
- Article 1 notes 61% blamed US President Donald Trump for the petrol price crisis, while Article 2 does not reference this specific statistic
- Article 1 reports 65% of every age group disapproved of US military action, but Article 2 does not specify this breakdown by age group
Source Articles
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