Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Iran war backlash
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals Labor’s primary vote has plummeted to 31%—its lowest since the May 2024 election—amid growing voter frustration over soaring fuel prices and the US-led war in Iran. Both Newspoll and Redbridge surveys show One Nation surging ahead of the Coalition, with primary votes of 26% and 29% respectively, while the Coalition’s support remains weak at 17% to 21%. The Iran war, exacerbated by global energy shocks, is widely blamed for the petrol crisis, with 72% of voters opposing US military action and Donald Trump singled out by 61% as the primary cause of rising fuel costs. Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has collapsed to -17, with over half of Australians dissatisfied with his leadership. The government has responded by underwriting the purchase of additional fuel cargoes and warning against hoarding, though internal divisions and criticism from both sides of politics persist. While both articles agree on the scale of Labor’s decline and public opposition to the Iran war, they differ slightly in polling specifics and include unique details like Labor’s potential fuel excise cut and Bunnings’ jerry can shortages.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in two recent polls (Newspoll and Redbridge), down from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May 2024 federal election
- One Nation’s primary vote was 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge, both higher than the Coalition’s 21% (Newspoll) and 17% (Redbridge)
- 72% of voters disapproved of US military action against Iran in both Newspoll and Redbridge polls
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating was -17 in Newspoll, down 18 points since December 2023, with 57% dissatisfied with his performance
- Australia announced it would underwrite the purchase of additional fuel cargoes to address supply shortages, with Prime Minister Albanese confirming ‘shiploads’ of fuel would be delivered at subsidized rates
- Donald Trump was blamed by 61% of voters in the Redbridge poll for the petrol price crisis, triggered by global energy shocks from the Iran war
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Redbridge poll found Labor led One Nation by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis, while Labor led the Coalition by 55% to 45% under May 2024 preference flows
- 65% of every age group disapproved of US military action in Iran, with One Nation voters most likely to support the war (contrasting with Liberal, Labor, and Greens voters)
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%)
- Australia denied receiving any formal request from the US for military support in the Strait of Hormuz, despite Trump’s public criticism of Australia’s lack of support
- Newspoll surveyed 1232 voters from Monday to Thursday last week, while Redbridge surveyed 1003 voters from Monday to Friday
- Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek confirmed the government was considering a cut to fuel excise and new cost-of-living measures, stating ‘People are experiencing higher fuel prices because of the conflict in the Middle East’
- Liberal MP Andrew Hastie called the US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and warned of ‘acute economic pain’ and questions over Trump’s judgment
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns, with Albanese warning Australians against filling more than necessary and labeling it ‘not the Australian way’
- Albanese’s fuel security measures would also allow the purchase of fertiliser and other essentials, with the government underwriting ‘additional supplies’ from international sources
- Newspoll results were published in *The Australian* and included a breakdown showing 42% dissatisfied with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s performance (vs. 57% for Albanese)
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote dropped to 26% in Newspoll, while Article 2 reports it slipped slightly to 26% (no contradiction, but Article 1 also notes a 29% Redbridge figure not mentioned in Article 2)
- Article 1 reports the Coalition’s primary vote at 21% in Newspoll and 17% in Redbridge, while Article 2 only cites Newspoll’s 21% without mentioning Redbridge’s 17%
- Article 1 claims 61% of voters blamed Trump for the petrol price crisis (Redbridge poll), but Article 2 does not repeat this specific statistic
- Article 1 notes 57% dissatisfied with Albanese’s performance in Newspoll, while Article 2 does not provide this exact number but aligns with the broader context of declining support
- Article 1 states 72% disapproved of US military action (both polls), but Article 2 only references the 72% disapproval without specifying the poll source
Source Articles
One Nation rises as Coalition future dire: Poll
The Coalition’s popularity with voters has taken a turn for the worse as a cost of living crunch places immense pressure on voters....
Anthony Albanese smashed in latest Newspoll over fuel, war
As the Prime Minister prepares to discuss shock measures to address the fuel crisis, a new poll shows furious voters are turning on his government....