Australian political polling shows Labor’s declining support amid fuel crisis and Iran war backlash
Consensus Summary
Australian political polling reveals Labor’s support has plummeted to its lowest since the May election, with the Albanese government’s primary vote collapsing to 31% amid rising public frustration over fuel prices and the Iran war. Both Newspoll and Redbridge polls show One Nation surging to 26-29%, while the Coalition’s support remains at a record low of 17-21%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with major parties. The crisis stems from global energy shocks triggered by the US-Iran conflict, with 72% of voters opposing US military action and 61% blaming Donald Trump for petrol price hikes. Albanese’s net approval rating has dropped sharply to -17, and the government is scrambling to address the affordability crisis, including underwriting fuel imports and warning against hoarding. While both sources agree on the core trends, Article 1 provides more granular polling details (e.g., gender splits on war approval), while Article 2 highlights specific government responses like fuel excise cuts and public warnings about petrol stockpiling.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Albanese’s Labor government primary vote dropped to 31% in the latest Newspoll (from 36% in November 2023 and 34.6% at the May election)
- One Nation’s primary vote is at 26% in Newspoll and 29% in Redbridge poll (both sources report recent figures)
- The Coalition’s primary vote is at a record low of 17% in Redbridge and 21% in Newspoll
- 72% of voters disapprove of US military action against Iran, with only 23% approving (reported in both polls)
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is at -17 (down 18 points since December 2023) in Newspoll
- Australia has denied receiving formal requests for military support in the Strait of Hormuz despite US pressure
- Petrol price crisis is linked to global energy shocks from the Iran war, with 61% blaming US President Donald Trump (Redbridge) and 50% disapproving of the war (Newspoll)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Redbridge poll found Labor led One Nation by 53% to 47% on two-party preferred basis (under preferences from May election)
- Redbridge poll found Labor led the Coalition by 55% to 45% on two-party preferred basis (using May election preferences)
- 57% dissatisfied with Albanese’s performance vs. 39% satisfied (Newspoll, Article 1)
- 42% dissatisfied with Angus Taylor’s performance vs. 35% satisfied (Newspoll, Article 1)
- Men were twice as likely to approve of US military action (30%) as women (16%) in Newspoll (Article 1)
- 65% of every age group disapproved of US military action in Iran (Article 1)
- Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek confirmed government considering fuel excise cuts and cost-of-living measures (quoted in Article 2)
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal) called US attack on Iran a ‘huge miscalculation’ and warned of economic pain (Article 2)
- Australia announced underwriting of ‘shiploads’ of fuel imports to boost supply (Article 2)
- Bunnings reported running out of jerry cans due to hoarding concerns (Article 2)
- Albanese warned against petrol hoarding and cited ‘four jerry cans’ being filled at servos (Article 2)
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 reports One Nation’s primary vote dropped to 26% in Newspoll, while Article 2 does not mention this specific Newspoll figure for One Nation
- Article 1 states One Nation’s primary vote dropped one point to 26% in Newspoll, but Article 2 omits this detail entirely
- Article 1 reports Labor’s primary vote at 31% in Newspoll (consistent with Article 2), but Article 2 does not specify the exact Newspoll date range for this figure
- Article 1 cites 61% blaming Trump for petrol prices (Redbridge), while Article 2 focuses on broader disapproval of US military action without this exact percentage
- Article 1 includes a 55% vs. 45% Labor-Coalition two-party preferred lead (Redbridge), but Article 2 does not reference this specific breakdown
Source Articles
One Nation rises as Coalition future dire: Poll
The Coalition’s popularity with voters has taken a turn for the worse as a cost of living crunch places immense pressure on voters....
Anthony Albanese smashed in latest Newspoll over fuel, war
As the Prime Minister prepares to discuss shock measures to address the fuel crisis, a new poll shows furious voters are turning on his government....