South Australia 2026 state election: One Nation’s historic surge and Labor’s landslide win
Consensus Summary
The 2026 South Australian state election saw a historic surge for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party, which won its first lower house seat outside Queensland and surpassed the Liberal Party’s primary vote, while Labor secured a landslide victory under Premier Peter Malinauskas. The election marked a significant shift in Australian politics, with One Nation’s primary vote reaching nearly 24% statewide, cannibalizing the Liberal Party’s traditional support base and forcing the opposition into an existential crisis. Labor’s landslide victory was driven by strong economic performance and a fragmented opposition, with One Nation’s rise disrupting the traditional two-party system. The election also highlighted growing voter dissatisfaction with major parties, particularly over immigration and economic issues, as One Nation’s populist messaging resonated with disaffected voters across regional and suburban areas. One Nation’s success in seats like Ngadjuri, Hammond, and Narungga demonstrated its ability to break into mainstream politics, while the Liberal Party’s collapse to just four to eight seats underscored its deepening crisis. The election’s aftermath raised questions about the future of Australian politics, with One Nation’s growing influence forcing both major parties to rethink their strategies and policy responses.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- South Australian state election held on March 21, 2026, with polls closing at 6pm AEST
- Labor Party led by Peter Malinauskas secured a landslide victory, winning at least 32 of 47 lower house seats
- One Nation won its first-ever lower house seat outside Queensland in the seat of Ngadjuri (Adelaide Plains Council Deputy Mayor David Paton)
- One Nation’s primary vote spiked to approximately 21-24% statewide, surpassing the Liberal Party’s 16-19% primary vote
- Liberal Party led by Ashton Hurn secured only 4-8 lower house seats, down from 13 in 2022, with some sources projecting as few as 4
- One Nation is leading or in contention for at least 4 lower house seats (Ngadjuri, Hammond, MacKillop, Narungga) as of March 21-22, 2026
- Early votes exceeded 400,000, nearly double the 212,466 early votes cast in 2022
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party leader confronted Premier Peter Malinauskas in Adelaide on March 19, 2026, over comments about immigration
- One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi is projected to win an upper house seat, with the party likely to secure 2-3 upper house seats
- Liberal Party’s primary vote in South Australia hit a historic low of 16-19% in multiple polls leading up to the election
- Peter Malinauskas’ approval rating was at 62% as preferred premier, while Ashton Hurn’s was at 23% in March 2026 polls
- One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter was disendorsed on March 20, 2026, due to a UK arrest warrant for failing to attend court on a sexual touching charge
- The ABC projected Labor’s landslide win within 90 minutes of polls closing on March 21, 2026
- One Nation’s primary vote in the lower house reached nearly 24% with 60% of ballots counted on March 21, 2026
- Labor’s primary vote was around 35-38% in the lower house, with a minor swing against the party of 2%
- Ashton Hurn became the fourth Liberal leader in four years, taking office in December 2025
- One Nation’s primary vote in the 2022 SA election was 2.6% statewide, but only 6.6% in the 19 seats they contested
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Barnaby Joyce stated One Nation’s SA result was ‘seismic’ and attributed the party’s rise to ‘clarity, unity, and strength’ in its messaging
- One Nation’s primary vote in outer Adelaide suburbs reached 22%, compared to the Liberals’ 19.2%
- One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi claimed informal votes (up to 5%) could improve the party’s standing in some seats
- Former Nationals leader David Littleproud stated One Nation’s rise was due to a ‘vacuum’ created by the Coalition’s policy scrapping after the 2025 federal election
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party was described as having ‘learned many things from this campaign’ and becoming ‘an even more formidable force’
- Peter Malinauskas was quoted as saying One Nation is a ‘party with a track record of dysfunction’ and rarely sees people sticking with it
- One Nation’s SA election policy website states the party would cap migration at 130,000 for all visa categories
- One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi said the party’s grassroots momentum remained strong despite the Baxter scandal
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party was described as ‘a party of protest’ by Barnaby Joyce in an interview with Sunrise
- Tony Pasin, federal Liberal MP, admitted holding 6-8 seats would be an acceptable result for the Liberals in the SA election
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party spent the past week campaigning in regional SA with Cory Bernardi and former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi
- Liberal Party’s Ashton Hurn directed supporters to put One Nation ahead of Labor on how-to-vote cards, but One Nation did not reciprocate
- Pauline Hanson told supporters she would ‘leave you some landmines’ in SA, referring to One Nation MPs as ‘explosive’
- One Nation’s primary vote in the 2025 federal election was not provided, but the Guardian noted the party’s growing support nationally
- The Guardian reported that One Nation’s primary vote in SA was 22% to the Liberals’ 19% in the final Advertiser/YouGov poll
- The Guardian highlighted that One Nation’s support was ‘rapidly growing’ and ‘a national threat to the major parties’
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party was described as ‘a party of grievance’ in the Guardian’s analysis
- The Guardian noted that One Nation’s support was ‘fuelled by concerns over immigration’ and ‘anti-lockdown activism’
- One Nation candidate Chantelle Thomas was described as having a ‘strong chance of victory’ in the Narungga seat
- Julie Hayles, a One Nation supporter, stated she had supported Pauline Hanson for 30 years and cited health, housing, and fuel costs as key issues
- John Jamieson, a former long-time Liberal voter, said One Nation wanted ‘Australia back as Australia, not so much a multicultural country’
- Lyn Hamilton, a One Nation volunteer, said she was not opposed to immigration but felt there had been ‘no vetting’
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the lower house was ‘just shy of 23%’ with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- ABC noted that One Nation’s support was ‘replacing the Liberal Party in the regions’ and also ‘taking over as the Labor Party’s main opponent in safe outer suburban seats’
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Elizabeth seat was 32%, with Labor’s primary vote down 15% and Liberals down 13%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Mawson seat was 26%, with Labor’s primary vote down double digits
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Flinders seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Narungga seat was strong, with Chantelle Thomas having a ‘strong chance of victory’
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Hammond seat was leading Labor’s candidate on a two-candidate count
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the MacKillop seat was strong, with the party leading Labor’s candidate
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ngadjuri seat was leading Labor’s candidate by 5.6 percentage points
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Port Adelaide seat was hovering around 6%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ramsay and Taylor seats was around 6%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Florey seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Schubert seat was up 15% from previous elections
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Flinders seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Narungga seat was strong, with Chantelle Thomas having a ‘strong chance of victory’
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Hammond seat was leading Labor’s candidate on a two-candidate count
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the MacKillop seat was strong, with the party leading Labor’s candidate
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ngadjuri seat was leading Labor’s candidate by 5.6 percentage points
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Port Adelaide seat was hovering around 6%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ramsay and Taylor seats was around 6%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Florey seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Schubert seat was up 15% from previous elections
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Flinders seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Narungga seat was strong, with Chantelle Thomas having a ‘strong chance of victory’
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Hammond seat was leading Labor’s candidate on a two-candidate count
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the MacKillop seat was strong, with the party leading Labor’s candidate
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ngadjuri seat was leading Labor’s candidate by 5.6 percentage points
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Port Adelaide seat was hovering around 6%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ramsay and Taylor seats was around 6%
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Florey seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Schubert seat was up 15% from previous elections
- ABC reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Flinders seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the lower house was nearly 24% with 8.30pm AEST count on March 21, 2026
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Elizabeth seat was up 26.4 percentage points, with Labor’s primary vote down 18.4 percentage points
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Croydon seat was up 7.6 percentage points against Peter Malinauskas
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Narungga seat was strong, with Chantelle Thomas having a ‘strong chance of victory’
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Hammond seat was leading Labor’s candidate on a two-candidate count
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the MacKillop seat was strong, with the party leading Labor’s candidate
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ngadjuri seat was leading Labor’s candidate by 5.6 percentage points
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Port Adelaide seat was hovering around 6%
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ramsay and Taylor seats was around 6%
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Florey seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Schubert seat was up 15% from previous elections
- The Age reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Flinders seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the lower house was nearly 24% with 60% of ballots counted on March 21, 2026
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Elizabeth seat was up 26.4 percentage points, with Labor’s primary vote down 18.4 percentage points
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Croydon seat was up 7.6 percentage points against Peter Malinauskas
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Narungga seat was strong, with Chantelle Thomas having a ‘strong chance of victory’
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Hammond seat was leading Labor’s candidate on a two-candidate count
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the MacKillop seat was strong, with the party leading Labor’s candidate
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ngadjuri seat was leading Labor’s candidate by 5.6 percentage points
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Adelaide seat was 21% with 30% of votes counted on March 21, 2026
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Port Adelaide seat was hovering around 6%
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Ramsay and Taylor seats was around 6%
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Florey seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Schubert seat was up 15% from previous elections
- The SMH reported that One Nation’s primary vote in the Flinders seat was over 20%, with Labor retaining the seat but suffering a significant swing
- Not applicable (no unique details found in Daily Telegraph)
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian and ABC both report One Nation’s primary vote was 22% in the final Advertiser/YouGov poll, but the Guardian notes One Nation’s support was ‘rapidly growing’ while ABC emphasizes the party’s ‘protest vote’ nature
- The Guardian states that One Nation’s primary vote in the 2022 SA election was 2.6% statewide, but ABC and other sources do not provide this specific number and focus on the 6.6% in contested seats
- ABC and The Age both report One Nation’s primary vote in the lower house was nearly 24% with 60-80% of ballots counted, but the exact percentage varies slightly between sources
- ABC reports that One Nation’s primary vote in the Elizabeth seat was 32% with Labor’s primary vote down 15%, while The Age reports Labor’s primary vote down 18.4 percentage points with One Nation up 26.4 percentage points
- ABC and The Guardian both report that One Nation’s primary vote in the Narungga seat was strong, but ABC emphasizes Chantelle Thomas’s ‘strong chance of victory’ while The Guardian does not provide this specific detail
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