Rising psychotic homicides in Victoria linked to mental health system failures
Consensus Summary
The immediate next steps include the Australian Society of Psychiatrists’ planned letter to federal Health Minister Mark Butler on October 29, 2026, advocating for a national observatory to monitor mental health service demand. Experts like Dr. Darjee have called for a 'wholesale review' of the royal commission’s recommendations, particularly regarding the prioritization of severe mental illness. Meanwhile, the Victorian government has yet to respond to specific questions about the crisis, though a spokesperson reiterated its commitment to 'safe, compassionate treatment' for those with serious mental illness. The unresolved question remains whether public outrage over these tragedies will finally compel political action, or if the system’s fragmentation will persist, leaving vulnerable individuals—and the community at large—at continued risk. As Dr. Gunaratne warned, 'We have effective treatments, but it’s still so hard to get someone into care,' underscoring the urgent need for reform.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- 43 homicides in Victoria between 2024 and 2025 were committed by people with psychosis, out of an estimated 126 total homicides in that period (about one in three).
- 45 people diagnosed with psychotic disorders were charged with homicides in Victoria between January 2024 and December 2025.
- In the 18 years between 1997 and 2015, there were 77 homicides committed by someone experiencing psychosis in Victoria.
- The rate of psychotic homicides in 2024-25 rose to 3.1 per million people per year, compared to 0.79 per million in the earlier decade (1997-2015).
- Eighty-four percent (43 out of 51) of homicide offenders with psychosis had previously received treatment from mental health services, while half were connected to services at the time of the incident.
- Dr. Rajan Darjee, a forensic psychiatrist at Swinburne University, led the research on psychotic homicides in Victoria.
- The findings are to be presented at a gathering of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law on October 25, 2026.
- The Australian Society of Psychiatrists will write to federal Health Minister Mark Butler on October 29, 2026, with an urgent proposal to fund a national mental health service demand observatory.
- The Mental Health and Wellbeing Act was introduced in Victoria in 2022.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Homicides committed by people experiencing psychosis in Victoria have quintupled, jumping from just over four per year a decade ago to more than 20 in 2024-25.
- Twelve of the cases in the past two years involved someone accused of killing a stranger while in the grip of psychosis, compared to one or two such cases in that time previously.
- Dr. Pramudie Gunaratne, head of the Australian Society of Psychiatrists, said the Haines case and others 'shows what happens when we’re flying blind'.
- The Westfield Bondi Junction attacks in 2024 involved Joel Cauchi, a man living with schizophrenia who had fallen into homelessness, and resulted in a fatal stabbing spree.
- Victoria Police’s counter-terrorism command strategy noted in 2022 that there has been an increase in the presence of mental disorders among terrorists, especially lone actors.
- ASIO reported earlier in 2026 observing a rise in domestic actors driven by personal grievance, ideology, conspiracy theories, and anti-government views.
- Former nurse and advocate for mental health resources in Victoria’s north-east, Haines, had been lobbying Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to address an estimated resource gap between the regions and the cities.
- The Carroll government had paused its plan to establish regional mental health and wellbeing boards, with little improvement since the 2021 royal commission into mental health.
- The data suggests that half of all stranger homicides in Victoria in 2024-25 were committed by people with psychosis, as were two in three intimate partner and family homicides.
- Professor Patrick McGorry, who chaired the expert advisory committee for the Royal Commission into Victoria's Mental Health System, called the homicide data a 'public policy failure'.
- The royal commission ran from 2018 to 2021 and was described as 'largely a successful blueprint' but its recommendations have been delayed or poorly implemented.
- Dr. Darjee believes there should be a 'wholesale review' of the royal commission's recommendations, particularly regarding the prioritization of severe mental illness over a broad spectrum of 'wellbeing' issues.
- Forensicare chief executive Colmán O'Driscoll agreed that compulsory treatment orders should be used as a last resort but warned against 'swinging the pendulum too far the other way' in avoiding their use when necessary.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Age states that 12 of the cases in the past two years involved someone accused of killing a stranger while in the grip of psychosis, while ABC does not provide this specific figure.
- The Age reports that 33 additional deaths could have been prevented with better mental health care, while ABC does not explicitly state this figure.
Source Articles
Psychiatrists wanted to understand homicide patterns. They found a deadly warning
Psychiatrists warn gaps in Victoria’s mental healthcare are allowing preventable tragedies in the wake of the attack on MP Helen Haines, including a recent quintupling of homicides by people with psychosis.
One in three homicides fuelled by psychosis, as doctors fear growing crisis
Frustrated psychiatrists and lawyers say an alarming uptick in homicides by people with psychosis is a triple tragedy for perpetrators, victims and the wider public because many of the deaths could have been prevented.
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