Sydney and Melbourne traffic drops as fuel prices surge due to Middle East conflict
Consensus Summary
Rising fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict have led to significant changes in transport habits across Sydney and Melbourne. Both sources confirm steep declines in road traffic, with Sydneyâs Harbour Bridge seeing weekday trips drop from ~144,000 to ~135,000 and toll road usage falling modestly. Diesel prices surged by ~$1.20/litre, while petrol rose ~50c/litre, prompting motorists to reduce driving, shift to public transport, cycling, or walking. Sydneyâs Opal card usage rose 1.2â1.5% in late March, and cycling/walking increased sharply. Melbourne also saw dramatic traffic drops, particularly on airport-linked highways like Tullamarine Freeway, which fell nearly 50% at its lowest point. While both articles agree on broad trends, specifics like weekend traffic declines (Guardianâs 20%) and Queensland public transport booms (Guardian) lack ABC corroboration. Analysts warn of prolonged weakness if fuel prices remain elevated, with toll road operators reporting slower growth in March 2026 compared to prior years.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Average weekday trips on Sydney Harbour Bridge fell from 143,510 (ABC) / 144,000 (Guardian) in early March to ~134,835 (ABC) / ~135,000 (Guardian) by late March
- Diesel prices rose from ~$1.83 (ABC) / unspecified (Guardian) in February to ~$3.01 (ABC) / unspecified (Guardian) in April, with petrol up ~50c/litre (Guardian) since the Middle East conflict began
- Sydney traffic fell 7% on the Cross City Tunnel and >6% on the M2, Eastern Distributor, and Sydney Harbour Bridge between early March and early April (Guardian) / 6% on Harbour Bridge, 7% on City West Link, 5% on Epping/Parramatta Roads (ABC)
- Public transport use in Sydney rose 1.2â1.5% (ABC) / unspecified (Guardian) in late March compared to 2025, with Opal card trips averaging 2.408M (ABC) in the week of March 23
- Transurbanâs Sydney toll roads saw combined daily trips fall by 6,000 in Q1 2026 (Guardian) / average daily traffic growth of 0.6% (ABC) in March, with WestConnex up 10,000/day and M5 up 2,000/day (Guardian)
- Cycling in Greater Sydney rose 10.4% since January (ABC) / unspecified (Guardian) and walking increased 37.69% over three months (ABC)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Average petrol price spiked from $1.68/litre in February to $2.20/litre in April (NSW FuelCheck data)
- Car trips on City West Link fell 7%, Epping Road 5%, Parramatta Road 5% since March
- Weekend trips on Sydney Harbour Bridge fell to 89,000/day by early April (Guardianâs 89,000 is not explicitly stated in ABC)
- Public transport uptick began in mid-March, coinciding with sustained fuel price expectations
- Traffic on Sydneyâs arterial roads fell sharply from mid-March, per Transport for NSW data
- Average weekday Opal card trips rose from 2.378M (2025) to 2.408M (March 23, 2026) (+1.2%) and 2.405M (March 30, 2026) (+1.5%)
- Train/metro trips showed sustained week-on-week increases vs. 2025
- Walking data from 99 sites showed a 37.69% increase in âwalksâ over three months
- Cycling data from 294 monitored sites showed a 10.4% rise in daily counts since January
- Traffic fell 20% on Sydneyâs weekend trips on key highways, with 14 of 23 roads losing â„20% weekend trips
- Sydney airport traffic fell 9% on Airport Drive and 7% on Qantas Drive due to flight cancellations and higher airfares
- Melbourneâs Tullamarine Freeway traffic fell 20% (week ending 1 March to 22 March) and nearly 50% by week ending 6 April
- Melbourneâs M1 and M80 traffic fell 15% (week ending 1 March to 22 March) and 30% by week ending 6 April (30,000 fewer trips/day)
- Public transport patronage in southeast Queensland rose 7% by March 29, with rail up 12.6%, light rail 9.9%, ferry 6.6%, and bus 5.3%
- RBC analyst Owen Birrell noted underlying traffic fell 3.4% in March 2026, implying ~20,000 fewer daily trips vs. 2025
- Transurbanâs Brisbane highways saw traffic grow just 0.7% YoY (excluding Tropical Cyclone Alfred), down from 2.7% in December
- Birrell warned of âweakness accelerating into Marchâ and concerns for April/May if Middle East conflict persists
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The ABC states diesel prices rose from $1.83 to $3.01/litre, while the Guardian does not specify the exact February price but notes a 140c/litre increase since the US-Iran conflict
- The Guardian claims Sydney traffic fell 20% on weekend trips, but the ABC does not mention this specific percentage for weekends, only weekday declines
- The Guardian reports Melbourneâs Tullamarine Freeway traffic fell nearly 50% by week ending 6 April, while the ABC does not cover Melbourne traffic trends at all
- The ABC highlights a 1.2â1.5% increase in Sydney Opal card trips, but the Guardian does not provide specific Sydney public transport numbers, only noting a boom in southeast Queensland
- The Guardian cites a 3.4% March traffic drop in Australia (per RBC), while the ABCâs Sydney-specific data shows smaller declines (5â7%) and no national figure
Source Articles
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