Nationals leader Matt Canavan eyes move to lower house after Michelle Landry's retirement

Consensus Summary

Michelle Landry, the Nationals MP for Capricornia, announced her retirement from federal politics ahead of the next election in 2028, clearing the path for Nationals leader Matt Canavan to potentially switch from the Senate to the lower house. Landry, who has held the seat since 2013, described her decision as the right time to step aside, citing a desire to focus on personal well-being. The move has sparked speculation about Canavan’s future, with both ABC and the Guardian reporting that he is considering running for Capricornia, a seat covering 90,000 square kilometers and encompassing key regional areas like Rockhampton and the Bowen Basin. Landry’s departure also raises concerns about the LNP’s ability to hold the seat amid a surge in support for One Nation, which is polling at 25% or higher nationwide, according to both outlets.

Landry’s retirement follows years of service, during which she secured over six billion dollars in projects for her electorate, including funding for infrastructure like the Rookwood Weir and Rockhampton Hospital car park. Her decision comes as the Nationals face pressure from One Nation’s rising popularity, which has led to internal discussions about replacing Canavan on the party’s Senate ticket. The Guardian notes that Canavan’s Senate seat is at risk, with pollster Kos Samaras warning he has a 'zero per cent' chance of re-election if One Nation’s momentum continues. Meanwhile, ABC highlights that Canavan has been a vocal advocate for hosting rowing events in Rockhampton for the 2032 Olympics, a factor that could influence his potential move to the lower house.

Both outlets emphasize Canavan’s willingness to 'do whatever it takes' to secure seats for the LNP, including potentially running in Capricornia. Landry, in her farewell remarks, criticized One Nation as 'not very pleasant' and 'obnoxious,' while the Guardian reports she dismissed speculation that her retirement was forced to make way for another Nationals candidate. Canavan, however, has not yet confirmed his intentions, though ABC notes that internal discussions are underway about who might replace him on the Senate ticket. The Guardian also highlights that One Nation’s surge could lead to a 'complete wipeout' of the Coalition in Queensland, with the party potentially losing Senate seats currently held by the LNP.

While both ABC and the Guardian agree on the core details—Landry’s retirement, Canavan’s potential move, and One Nation’s polling strength—they differ in emphasis. The ABC focuses on Landry’s achievements, including her 4.5% swing to the LNP in a former Labor stronghold, and her efforts to bring international flights to Rockhampton ahead of the 2032 Olympics. The Guardian, meanwhile, places greater weight on polling data, warning of Canavan’s precarious Senate position and One Nation’s potential to win multiple seats in Queensland. The outlets also vary slightly in their reporting of One Nation’s primary vote, with ABC citing Newspoll figures of 28% for One Nation and 20% for the Coalition, while the Guardian references its own Essential poll showing One Nation at 25% and the Coalition at 22%.

The next steps remain unclear, but both sources suggest Canavan’s future will hinge on internal LNP discussions and the party’s ability to counter One Nation’s surge. The Guardian’s pollster, Kos Samaras, predicts One Nation could win nearly every LNP-held seat in Queensland, including Senate spots, while ABC notes that Canavan’s move to the lower house would align with a broader Nationals strategy to have its leader in the House of Representatives. Landry’s retirement, however, leaves a significant void, and the party’s ability to hold Capricornia in 2028 will depend on whether Canavan can secure the nomination and whether One Nation’s momentum continues to grow. For now, the focus remains on Landry’s legacy and the uncertain political landscape ahead.