Australia’s Easter weather forecast and potential cyclone threat next week
Consensus Summary
Australia is set for a relatively calm Easter weather forecast with mild temperatures and scattered showers across most capital cities, following a wet February-March period. A tropical low, currently between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, is expected to develop into a cyclone by Sunday in the Coral Sea, with potential landfall scenarios ranging from Rockhampton to Cape York Peninsula mid-next week. Both sources agree on the high chance of this system becoming a cyclone, named Owen if it forms in Australian waters, and its uncertain but concerning trajectory. Sydney and Brisbane are forecast to experience showers and windy conditions, while Canberra remains mostly dry. The high-pressure system currently south of Western Australia will bring settled weather for Easter, though thunderstorms are expected in inland WA and the Top End. Contradictions exist in the specifics of precipitation probabilities and timing for certain regions, such as Darwin and Melbourne, as well as the mention of marine wind warnings in Queensland. Despite the mostly benign Easter weather, meteorologists urge caution due to the potential cyclone threat and lingering flood risks in Queensland’s northeast.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- A tropical low (37U) between Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands is expected to deepen and strengthen over the weekend, with a high chance of becoming a cyclone by Sunday in the Coral Sea (Guardian, ABC).
- The cyclone, if formed in Australian waters, would be named Owen (Guardian).
- The system could move toward the Australian coast from mid-next week, with potential landfall scenarios ranging from Rockhampton to Cape York Peninsula (ABC, Guardian).
- Sydney is forecast to see showers from Good Friday, with maximums in the low to mid-20s and rain most days except Monday (Guardian, ABC).
- Brisbane will experience warmer temperatures (high 20s) and a chance of rain for the first three days of Easter, with windy conditions along the Queensland coast (Guardian, ABC).
- Canberra is expected to be mostly dry over Easter, with maximum temperatures ranging between 19 and 25°C (Guardian, ABC).
- A high-pressure system is currently centered south of Western Australia and will travel east toward the Tasman Sea, bringing generally settled weather for Easter (ABC).
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a blend of fine days and showers for most capital cities over Easter, with no city forecast to be completely dry or a washout (Guardian).
- Temperatures in the Pilbara and Kimberley will reach around 40°C this Easter, while Tasmania’s highlands will dip to freezing (ABC).
- A trough of low pressure is expected to bring showers to Tasmania, Victoria, and parts of South Australia on Easter Monday (ABC).
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Senior meteorologist Jonathan How explicitly warned that ‘if you leave chocolate out in the sun, it will melt’ in Adelaide due to 29°C on Sunday (Guardian).
- The Guardian notes catchments in Queensland’s northeast tropical coast are still soaked, so showers could lead to isolated river and creek rises (Guardian).
- The Guardian mentions the system’s naming rights depend on where it forms, as it is near the boundary of Papua New Guinea and Fiji’s areas of responsibility (Guardian).
- Thunderstorms were expected to roll through inland Western Australia on Good Friday, with the possibility of some reaching Perth (Guardian).
- Darwin is forecast to have isolated showers, storms, and temperatures in the 30s (Guardian).
- ABC states Australia has just experienced its third wettest February-March on record (ABC).
- ABC highlights that the hottest place this Easter will be the Pilbara and Kimberley, with inland towns hitting around 40°C (ABC).
- ABC provides a detailed state-by-state breakdown including specific precipitation probabilities for Brisbane (50-60% chance of rain Friday-Sunday) and Sydney (5-20mm rain total) (ABC).
- ABC mentions the system could follow a similar track to Cyclone Narelle and notes it could be the shortest gap between direct cyclone strikes on Queensland since 2011 (ABC).
- ABC includes a map showing the probability of a tropical cyclone passing within 300km of locations by April 11 (ABC).
- ABC notes that the monsoon is taking a break, but typical wet season storms will still fire up each day over the Top End (ABC).
- ABC states that the vast majority of Australia will receive less than 1mm of rain through the next four days (ABC).
- ABC mentions that the system named 37U could stall or track south well before reaching the Queensland coast (ABC).
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian says Darwin will see isolated showers, storms, and temperatures in the 30s, while ABC states Darwin has a 50-70% chance of precipitation each day with highs between 32°C and 34°C (ABC does not mention isolated showers).
- The Guardian mentions thunderstorms expected to roll through inland Western Australia on Good Friday with a possibility of reaching Perth, but ABC does not mention this specific timing or location for thunderstorms in WA.
- The Guardian states that no capital city is forecast to be completely dry, while ABC states that the vast majority of Australia will receive less than 1mm of rain through the next four days (which could imply some areas are dry).
- The Guardian says showers are expected in Melbourne from Friday to Sunday with showers on Monday, while ABC says Melbourne will see a shower or two on Friday, mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday, and potentially showery Monday (ABC implies fewer showers overall).
- The Guardian mentions marine wind warnings expected along parts of the Queensland coast throughout the weekend, but ABC does not mention this specific detail.
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