Victorian Labor leadership crisis ahead of November 2026 state election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Labor Premier Jacinta Allan faces a leadership challenge after factional powerbrokers from both Left and Right factions met on Sunday night and reportedly concluded she no longer has the support of a majority of the 69-member caucus. The crisis comes four months out from the November 28 state election, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll identified as the most likely replacement despite publicly ruling out a challenge last month in June. Allan, who became premier in September 2023, has defiantly refused to resign and is expected to be offered a voluntary exit on Monday, with a potential leadership ballot as early as Tuesday. Polling shows Allan’s likeability at minus 36, with Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leading preferred premier polling at 43 per cent to Allan’s 24 per cent. A contested leadership process could take up to six weeks, involving both caucus and party membership votes, and would likely paralyze the government ahead of the election. Allan’s supporters, including Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny, dismiss the speculation as idle gossip, while critics argue her leadership is doomed and a change is necessary to restore voter confidence.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan became Victorian premier in September 2023 following Daniel Andrews' resignation
- Victorian Labor caucus consists of 69 MPs
- The state election is scheduled for November 28
- Factional powerbrokers from both Left and Right met on Sunday night to assess Allan’s support
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll is the most likely replacement for Allan
- Carroll publicly ruled out challenging Allan at a press conference last month (June)
- Cabinet is scheduled to meet on Monday
- Allan’s likeability rating is at minus 36, her equal lowest result on record
- Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leads preferred premier polling with 43 per cent, Allan has 24 per cent
- A leadership spill process could take up to six weeks
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Allan is expected to be offered the opportunity to resign on Monday, with a leadership challenge potentially on Tuesday
- Allan’s Bendigo East seat is under threat from the Nationals
- A growing cohort of Labor MPs believe the government needs a royal commission into Big Build corruption, which Allan has ruled out
- Some loyal MPs are still backing Allan, with senior figures dismissing the spill threat as failing
- A delegation is mooted to approach Allan to resign voluntarily
- If Allan refuses to resign, a leadership ballot would involve the entire Victorian Labor membership in a weeks-long process
- Plans to set up a new organised crime commission are top of the Monday cabinet agenda
- Allan spent Sunday night at her home in Bendigo with senior advisers and told supporters she would not resign regardless of factional decisions
- The leadership manoeuvres are taking place in the absence of a declared challenger
- A contested leadership ballot would require a caucus vote and party membership ballot, with even weight given to both
- If Allan and Carroll are leadership candidates, both would be sidelined from their day jobs, and an interim leader appointed
- A leaked policy suggests amending rate cap rules to allow councils to recoup staff costs, supported by the Australian Services Union but criticized as a cost-of-living attack
- The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows Allan’s likeability at minus 36, her equal lowest result on record
- The factional conveners did not sufficiently canvass the views of all parliamentarians before the meeting
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC states the leadership challenge is four months out from the November state election, while THEAGE does not explicitly mention the four-month timeline but focuses on the November 28 date
- ABC mentions a delegation is mooted to approach Allan to resign on Monday, while THEAGE suggests this is one of several options being considered but does not specify a Monday deadline
- ABC states that if Allan refuses to resign, a leadership challenge is expected at Tuesday’s caucus meeting, while THEAGE implies this could happen but does not specify Tuesday as the exact date
- ABC notes that some loyal MPs are still backing Allan with senior figures dismissing the spill threat, while THEAGE cites seven sources saying Allan would lose if her leadership came to a vote of the 69 MPs
Source Articles
Victorian premier facing leadership challenge this week
Factional convenors from both the right and left of the party room met on Sunday night to discuss whether Jacinta Allan still had the support of a majority of caucus. The ABC understands they agreed she did not.
Jacinta Allan’s leadership on the line in crucial meeting of Labor chiefs
Labor’s factional chiefs met on Sunday night to gauge whether the premier still has the majority support of her MPs.
Extraordinary meeting of Labor conveners resolves to move against Jacinta Allan
Allan remained defiant as factional conveners from across the party broadly agreed her days as premier were numbered.