South Australia election: One Nation’s historic gains and Liberal Party’s decline
Consensus Summary
The South Australian state election delivered a historic shift in Australian politics, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party winning at least two lower house seats—Ngadjuri and Hammond—for the first time outside Queensland. Securing 22% of the primary vote, One Nation surpassed the Liberal Party’s 19.2%, marking its strongest electoral performance since the 1998 Queensland state election. Labor won a landslide with 38-40% of the vote, re-electing Premier Peter Malinauskas with an increased majority, but the real story was the collapse of the Liberal Party’s support, which dropped to just 4-7 seats despite holding the official opposition title. Analysts attributed One Nation’s gains to voter frustration with major parties over issues like cost-of-living, housing affordability, and immigration, with preference flows from the Liberals playing a key role in securing seats. The election exposed deep cracks in the traditional two-party system, as One Nation’s vote was spread across urban and regional areas, cannibalizing both Liberal and Labor support. While Labor celebrated its victory, the rise of One Nation—now a legitimate third force—has forced all parties to rethink their strategies ahead of upcoming state elections in Victoria and New South Wales, as well as the 2028 federal election. The results also highlighted economic instability, with rising oil prices and global disruptions amplifying voter discontent, setting the stage for further political realignment.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- One Nation won at least two lower house seats in South Australia’s parliament: Ngadjuri (David Paton) and Hammond (Robert Roylance), marking its first lower house wins outside Queensland
- One Nation secured 22% of the primary vote in the lower house, surpassing the Liberal Party’s 19.2% and making it the second-highest polling party after Labor’s 38-40%
- Labor won a landslide victory in South Australia, securing 32-38 seats in the 47-member lower house, with Premier Peter Malinauskas re-elected
- The Liberal Party’s primary vote dropped to 19.2% (lower house) and 16% (upper house), resulting in just 4-7 lower house seats, down from previous elections
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is leading in at least two more lower house seats (Narungga and MacKillop) as of mid-counting, with preference flows still being determined
- Liberal Party preferences for One Nation over Labor in several seats helped One Nation win those seats, according to electoral analysts and the Electoral Commission of SA
- One Nation’s upper house candidates include former federal senator Cory Bernardi, who is projected to win at least two seats, potentially giving the party a balance-of-power role
- The SA election was held amid rising global oil prices and economic instability, with voters citing cost-of-living, housing, and immigration as key concerns driving support for One Nation
- Former Nationals deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce appeared on Sunrise (Article 1) and Sky News (Article 4) to celebrate One Nation’s SA results, calling it a ‘seismic shift’
- Labor’s primary vote slipped by about 2% in the lower house, while One Nation’s vote surged by 19.4% compared to previous elections
- The seat of Ngadjuri was renamed from Frome in 2024 due to traditional owners’ concerns over its namesake, Edward Charles Frome, who burned down an Aboriginal village
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Barnaby Joyce’s quote: ‘You better understand the seismic shift out there in Australia’ (Article 1)
- Peter Malinauskas recited Henry Lawson’s poem *The Duty of Australians* in his victory speech, emphasizing a ‘subdued form of patriotism’ (Article 1)
- Tanya Plibersek praised Malinauskas’ leadership and Labor’s focus on education, health, and the economy as major factors in the landslide win (Article 1)
- One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi claimed Labor ‘prefers to keep the Liberal Party alive as a controlled opposition’ (Article 11)
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was ahead in four lower house seats (Ngadjuri, Hammond, Narungga, MacKillop) and in contention in two others (Stuart, Light) as of Sunday evening (Article 2)
- Liberal senator Andrew McLachlan said the party ‘should always preference One Nation last’ (Article 2)
- One Nation’s pollster data showed most supporters were voting as a protest against major parties, with only 10% supporting their policies (Article 2)
- Pauline Hanson referenced Peter Malinauskas’ ‘landmines’ comment in her election night speech, saying she was leaving ‘landmines’ in the form of One Nation MPs (Article 2)
- Liberal Party elder John Howard’s 2017 blessing to WA One Nation for a preference deal was mentioned as a contrast to the current SA strategy (Article 10)
- ABC projected One Nation’s candidate David Paton would win Ngadjuri with a 5.6 percentage point lead over Labor’s Tony Piccolo (Article 3)
- ABC reported One Nation’s Robert Roylance won Hammond with 55.5% of the vote to Labor’s 44.5% on a two-candidate preferred count (Article 5)
- ABC highlighted that One Nation’s vote was spread across the state, with Labor dominating outer suburbs and Liberals holding regional seats where One Nation was second (Article 12)
- ABC noted that One Nation’s informal votes (up to 5% in some seats) would be counted on Monday, potentially improving their standing (Article 11)
- ABC interviewed One Nation supporters like Garry Houlahan (Florey) and Julie Hayles (Narungga), who cited cost-of-living, health, and immigration as key issues (Article 6)
- ABC’s tally-room analyst Ben Raue said One Nation’s preference flows were complex due to independents and minor parties, making predictions tricky (Article 12)
- ABC reported that One Nation’s upper house candidates included Cory Bernardi, who defended his stance on immigration by comparing it to ‘buying cattle’ (Article 6)
- Peter Hartcher described One Nation’s rise as a ‘political earthquake’ and warned of a ‘continent of landmines’ if the trend continues (Article 8)
- The Age cited International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol’s warning that oil prices would remain elevated due to Middle East damage, contributing to economic instability (Article 8)
- The Age quoted Premier Malinauskas acknowledging housing and immigration as the ‘biggest issues’ driving One Nation’s support (Article 8)
- The Age mentioned that Labor’s primary vote was 31.8% while One Nation’s was 22.4% and Liberals’ was 19.2% (Article 10)
- N/A (no unique details beyond Guardian/other sources)
- One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi claimed informal votes (up to 5% in some seats) would improve their standing in undecided seats (Article 11)
- Bernardi accused Labor and Liberals of a ‘cozy deal’ to deny One Nation representation (Article 11)
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Article 1 (Newscomaustralia) states Labor’s primary vote slipped by ‘about 2%’, while Article 10 (Guardian/The Age) reports Labor’s primary vote was 31.8% (down from previous elections but no explicit 2% swing mentioned).
- Article 2 (Guardian) says One Nation was ahead in four lower house seats (Ngadjuri, Hammond, Narungga, MacKillop) and in contention in two others (Stuart, Light), but Article 12 (ABC) states One Nation was only declared in Ngadjuri and Hammond with Narungga/MacKillop still undecided as of mid-counting.
- Article 11 (Newscomaustralia) claims One Nation is ‘likely’ to win three more seats (Hammond, Narungga, MacKillop), while Article 5 (ABC) confirms Hammond but only mentions Narungga/MacKillop as ‘ahead’ without a definitive win.
- Article 4 (ABC) reports Barnaby Joyce’s comment about ‘buying cattle’ (immigration analogy) was described as ‘deeply offensive’ by the Australian National Imams Council, but Article 6 (ABC) does not repeat this exact quote or reaction in the same detail.
- Article 1 (Newscomaustralia) and Article 11 (Newscomaustralia) emphasize Labor’s landslide with 32-38 seats, while Article 10 (Guardian/The Age) states Labor won 33 seats with 60% of votes counted, implying a potential discrepancy in final seat counts.
Source Articles
One Nation’s historic SA wins
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has scored a historic breakthrough, projected to win two lower house seats in South Australia....
Across much of Adelaide, One Nation has cannibalised the Liberal vote
Labor won the South Australian election in a landslide, but nationally, more attention has been on the undercard fight, which has left the Liberal Party deeply wounded....
Why isn't One Nation winning many seats in the SA election despite its high vote?
One Nation has received more than 20 per cent of the primary vote in South Australia, and so far, its lower house seat count remains slight. Why is that, and why are onlookers so interested in the res...
One Nation wins at least one SA seat as Liberals consider ‘sobering lessons’ from election defeat
Labor’s Peter Malinauskas secures at least 32 seats while Pauline Hanson’s party outpolls Liberals and could become de facto opposition One Nation will win at least one South Australian lower house se...
One Nation’s surge in South Australia is a warning - fiddling at the edges is no longer enough | Tony Barry
There is a structural realignment under way, with the Liberal party the early and obvious victim in Saturday’s South Australian state election As the ballots are counted in South Australia, it’s now c...
As One Nation's vote soars, SA supporters explain their reasons
Heading into the South Australian election, One Nation was backing its chances to pick up votes from across the political spectrum, and supporters say various factors informed their decisions....
Conditions are ripe for a party of grievance like One Nation to keep growing
One Nation delivers its best electoral result in nearly 30 years, demonstrating that opinion polls showing its vote rising was not a political beat-up but a real electoral phenomenon that will lead to...
Why SA farmers are turning from the Liberal Party towards One Nation
Rural SA electorates that were once safe Liberal seats are now marginal, thanks to voters swinging towards One Nation....
The times suit Hanson. But for Albanese, it’s a minefield
The world we are now walking into will present untold riches of resentment for protest parties to foment. That spells big trouble for the Labor government....
Liberal party preferences handed seats to One Nation in South Australian election, analysts say
Pauline Hanson’s party will have at least two seats in the upper house and at least one and likely more in the lower house Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast The Liberal part...
Breaking: One Nation wins first seat in SA Parliament's Lower House, ABC projects
One Nation is projected to win its first seat in South Australia's Lower House, the first time the party has done so outside of Queensland....
Barnaby basks in One Nation’s ‘seismic’ SA result
New One Nation member Barnaby Joyce says the huge swing to the populist party in South Australia is a “seismic shift” for Australian politics....
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation likely to win second South Australian lower house seat
ABC projects rightwing populist party will pick up the electorate of Hammond from the Liberals Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast One Nation has secured a second seat in Sout...
Breaking: One Nation wins second SA lower house seat, ABC projects
One Nation has won its second lower house seat in South Australia's parliament, days after the state election, the ABC is projecting....