Australia's elevated bushfire risk in spring 2026 due to El Niño and dry conditions
Consensus Summary
Australia is facing an elevated bushfire risk across most states and territories this spring 2026, driven by a strong El Niño event declared in June 2026, dry conditions in the east, and increased fuel loads. The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) warns that regions like the Northern Territory, New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, Western Australia, and Tasmania are at heightened risk, with some areas—such as those affected by the 2019-20 bushfires—regrowing vegetation that could fuel intense fires. Experts caution that the combination of reduced rainfall, high temperatures, and potential climate drivers like a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could create extreme fire conditions, particularly if flash droughts or heatwaves occur. While both sources agree on the broad risks, they differ slightly on regional rainfall patterns and the intensity of the El Niño, though both emphasize the need for early community preparedness.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) released a seasonal outlook showing increased bushfire risk across most states and territories except the ACT in spring 2026.
- Dry conditions in eastern Australia and increased fuel loads in central and northern Australia are key factors driving the elevated bushfire risk.
- The Northern Territory, New South Wales (including Armidale and areas affected by the 2019-20 fires), and Queensland face heightened fire danger due to above-average fuel loads and low soil moisture.
- Victoria, Western Australia, and Tasmania also have increased fire risk in specific regions, including southern Victoria, eastern Tasmania, and parts of Western Australia like the Cape Range and Geraldton Hills.
- An El Niño event, declared in June 2026, is contributing to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, exacerbating fire conditions.
- The 2019-20 bushfires led to prolific vegetation regrowth in some areas, which now poses a heightened fire risk if dry conditions persist.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Soil moisture deficits expanded across eastern Australia and intensified in Western Australia by July 2026, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
- The last El Niño (2023-24) brought the warmest winter–spring since records began in 1910.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could emerge before spring, potentially worsening El Niño’s impacts.
- Professor David Bowman of the University of Tasmania warned that flash droughts and heatwaves could rapidly dry out landscapes, creating dangerous fire conditions, particularly in eastern Tasmania.
- Europe’s summer 2026 was marked by historic fires, prompting comparisons to Australia’s potential fire season.
- Andrew Warton, commissioner of Fire and Emergency Services NT, noted that intense rainfall and flooding earlier in 2026 drove above-average vegetation growth in the Barkly and southern NT regions.
- Alex Vaughan from the Arid Land Environment Centre attributed the NT’s fire risk to ‘dangerous and fire-promoting buffel grass,’ an invasive species dominating inland Australia.
- Ben Millington, deputy commissioner of the NSW Rural Fire Service, stated that some areas in NSW have not experienced fire activity since the 2019-20 black summer fires.
- The NT’s heightened risk follows a wet season with unburnt grass fuels remaining for over a year in some areas.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The ABC mentions a 'super El Niño' in 2026, while the Guardian refers to it simply as a 'strengthening El Niño system' without specifying its intensity.
- The ABC states that rainfall was above average for parts of northern and central Australia in July 2026, while the Guardian focuses on below-average rainfall in NSW and Victoria without mentioning northern Australia’s conditions.
Source Articles
El Niño loads the dice for more extreme fire conditions
Fears have been growing around what Australia's spring and summer will look like after the weather bureau declared an El Niño in June, which has the potential to become the strongest on record.
‘Prepare early’: bushfire authorities sound alarm for NT, NSW and Queensland
Effects of global heating in NT worsened by ‘dangerous and fire-promoting buffel grass’, expert says Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Fire authorities have warned large parts of the Northern Territory are facing heightened fire danger throughout spring, with above average fuel loads leaving much of the territory vulnerable. Low soil moisture has also led to elevated fire risk for parts of New South Wales, including some areas that were badly burned during the black su