Australia's record-breaking warm winter and spring heat forecast
Consensus Summary
Australia experienced its warmest winter on record in 2026, with Sydney breaking its 167-year record for winter mean temperature at 15.3C, surpassing the previous 2013 record of 15.0C. Melbourne matched its 2005 record winter mean temperature of 12.2C, while Canberra saw its warmest winter maximum at 14.7C. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that all states except the Northern Territory ranked in their top 10 warmest winters since 1910, with Australia’s winter mean temperature 1.45C above the 1961–1990 average. Snowfall was notably absent in areas like the Blue Mountains, marking the fourth consecutive year without snow. The El Niño event in the Pacific is expected to strengthen through spring, contributing to forecasts of unusually high temperatures across southern Australia, with spring temperatures predicted to be the warmest on record. Spring temperatures are forecast to be 2C to 3C above the 1981–2018 average, with cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane experiencing temperatures 5C to 7C above normal. Rainfall patterns are expected to shift, with below-average rainfall in southern and eastern Australia but above-average rainfall in the west from October. The record warmth follows a northern hemisphere summer marked by extreme heatwaves, wildfires, and intense rainfall events, underscoring the broader impacts of climate change.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Sydney recorded its warmest winter on record with a mean temperature of 15.3C at Observatory Hill, breaking the previous record of 15.0C set in 2013
- Melbourne equalled its 2005 record for winter mean temperature of 12.2C
- Canberra recorded its warmest winter maximum, with an average maximum temperature of 14.7C
- Australia’s mean temperature was 1.45C above the 1961–1990 average for winter, the equal third-highest on record since national observations began in 1910
- All other states and territories except the Northern Territory were in their top 10 warmest winters on record since 1910
- Sydney’s lowest maximum this winter was a record of 15.5C on June 25, 3.6C above the typical coldest day, beating the old record of 14.6C from 1979
- Canberra’s coldest day this winter brought a high of 9.5C on July 13, the highest ever lowest winter maximum, and 3C warmer than Canberra’s typical coldest day of the year
- Snow did not fall in the Blue Mountains west of Sydney for the fourth consecutive year
- The El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is expected to continue strengthening through spring, likely peaking in late spring or summer
- The national average rainfall for winter was 8% above the 1961–1990 average
- South Australia recorded its sixth wettest winter on record
- The BoM’s long-range forecast shows below average rainfall is expected to continue through parts of southern and eastern Australia through spring, while above average rainfall is expected in large parts of the west from October
- Melbourne and Canberra are set to see their warmest start to spring in five years
- Sydney is predicted to reach 27C on Wednesday, 7C above normal for September
- Brisbane is tipped to hit 31C on Thursday and Friday, about 7C above the long-term average
- Modelling is forecasting temperatures during the next three months to be the warmest on record for an Australian spring across southern states
- The BOM’s ACCESS-S model predicts much of southern Australia will see temperatures between 2C and 3C above the 1981 to 2018 average for spring
- Australia’s area-averaged mean temperature in July was 1.14 degrees above the 1961-90 average, the warmest since 2023
- Tasmania and Queensland were within their top seventh- and 10th-warmest July on record since 1910, respectively
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Australia’s national annual average temperature is about 1.5C higher than in 1910
- A horror northern hemisphere summer of record-breaking heatwaves, drought and wildfires in Europe and North America, and intense rain and typhoons in Asia
- Snowfall in Australia is pretty rare, and just notching the temperature up to a couple of degrees during winter basically puts us above freezing point most of the time
- Parts of inland NSW, Victoria, South Australia, and parts of the Northern Territory had above average rainfall, with parts of far-western NSW near the SA border experiencing their wettest winter on record
- Sydney's mean temperature was 15.3C, 2.3C above the long-term average, and only a fraction of a degree below Brisbane's winter climate last century
- Hobart's mean of 10.4C equals Melbourne's long-term winter average
- Melbourne's 12.2C was just 0.8C off Sydney's historic winter climate
- Brisbane only registered two maximums below 20C, and Canberra just one below 10C
- The forecast converts to a temperature between 3C to 4C above pre-industrial levels
- There is a greater than 80 per cent chance southern Australia will record maximum temperatures in the top 20 per cent of years, while for minimums the 80 per cent plus area covers around two-thirds of the country
- The multi-model prediction for January shows a forecast anomaly of 1C to 2C across most of Australia, with a baseline of 1993 to 2016
- Climate change was already having a significant impact by the turn of the century
- Sydney has just experienced its warmest winter in 167 years of records
- The mean seasonal temperature for this winter stood at 15.27 degrees, about 2.25 degrees above the long-term winter average, and was on track to beat the previous record of 14.95 degrees set in 2013
- Western Europe enters autumn having been battered by a rolling series of heatwaves and its hottest ever June and July period
- Over the northern summer, 634,022 hectares of land burnt across the EU, more than double the long-term average
- The most intense El Nino event so far recorded is brewing in the Pacific Ocean
- The NSW government has announced a massive investment in drone surveillance and installed two tagged shark listening stations in Sydney Harbour
- Hobart is experiencing its warmest first day of spring in 13 years
- Sydney is forecast to reach 30 degrees by the weekend, while Brisbane could hit 32 degrees
- Queensland is predicted to be an exception to the warm weather pattern, with the state’s far north likely to stay within normal spring temperatures
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian states Sydney’s winter mean temperature was 15.3C, while SMH states it was 15.27 degrees
- The Guardian says all other states and territories except the Northern Territory were in their top 10 warmest winters on record, but SMH states Tasmania and Queensland were only in their top seventh- and 10th-warmest July on record, respectively
- The Guardian says Australia’s mean temperature was 1.45C above the 1961–1990 average for winter, while SMH states Australia’s area-averaged mean temperature in July was 1.14 degrees above the 1961-90 average
- The ABC states the baseline for the BOM’s ACCESS-S model is 1981 to 2018, while it mentions a multi-model prediction for January using a 1993 to 2016 baseline
Source Articles
Sydney records warmest winter on record as Melbourne equals previous hottest temperatures
New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania just experienced their warmest-ever winters – and BoM says above-average temperatures expected to continue Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Australia’s two biggest cities had their hottest and equal hottest winters on record, with three eastern states also breaking temperature records. The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) spring outlook shows above average daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to continue for much of the
Spring scorcher to follow record warm winter for south-east capitals
Winter has been the warmest on record for Sydney and Melbourne, with Canberra also recording its highest ever temperatures, while this season will rank as the second-warmest on record for Adelaide and Hobart.
What weather can we expect across Australia this spring?
After a warm winter, Australians are entering spring under the influence of an El Niño that is expected to intensify further.
Sydney set for spring sizzle after warm winter
The vivid displays of colour marking the early start to spring serve as illustrations of a rapidly warming world.
Warmer than average spring ahead as temperatures soar across Australia
Multiple cities are experiencing their hottest start to the season in years.
More Environment stories
Flash flood disaster in Grand Canyon National Park leaves missing, evacuations, and infrastructure damage
H5 bird flu spreads to Australian mammals, threatening wildlife and research stations
Australia's H5 bird flu outbreak spreads among native birds, causing mass mortality events
Drone captures rare humpback whale birth off NSW north coast
French tourist dies in Death Valley after heat exposure and car mishap
Geraldton playground closed due to thallium detection in sandpit
Latest cross-verified stories
Australia drops Marnus Labuschagne from ODI squad ahead of World Cup and South Africa tour
Methylamphetamine found hidden in McMuffin during WA police traffic stop
Queensland introduces strict e-bike and e-scooter laws with age and licensing requirements
China warns Pacific nations over Taiwan's presence at 2026 Pacific Islands Forum
Conviction of Duane 'Keffe D' Davis in 1996 murder of Tupac Shakur
Raelene Polymiadis trial for alleged insulin-related murders of her parents
Browse all stories from September 2026 in the archive.