Australia’s Coalition proposes 80% tobacco excise cut to combat illicit trade
Consensus Summary
Australia’s opposition Coalition is proposing an 80% cut to tobacco excise, reducing the price of a packet of cigarettes from about $30 to $6, alongside legalizing and regulating vapes and nicotine pouches. The move aims to combat the illicit tobacco trade, which controls over half of all sales and has seen nicotine consumption rise by about 30% since 2021. Public health experts, including the Australian Medical Association and Labor’s Tanya Plibersek, strongly oppose the plan, warning it could increase smoking rates and undermine decades of tobacco control efforts. The Coalition argues the policy will reduce profits for organized crime, with Parliamentary Budget Office modelling suggesting it could boost tax revenue by about $8 billion over four years. One Nation’s earlier proposal of a 75% excise cut appears to have influenced the Coalition’s stance, as both parties seek to address the black market’s dominance. Meanwhile, law enforcement challenges persist, with violent incidents like firebombings linked to the tobacco trade, and the illegal vape market remaining a significant issue.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Angus Taylor’s Coalition plans to cut tobacco excise by 80%, reducing the price of a standard 20-cigarette packet from about $30 to about $6
- More than half (over 50%) of all tobacco sales in Australia are currently controlled by illicit dealers
- The Coalition’s plan includes legalising and regulating vapes and nicotine pouches for adults, with a 50¢/ml excise on vapes and 2.5¢/mg on pouches
- The Coalition proposes a $200 million law enforcement push to combat illicit tobacco sales, including increased funding for the Australian Border Force and federal police
- Parliamentary Budget Office modelling estimates the Coalition’s tobacco policy would increase tax revenue by about $8 billion over four years
- One Nation proposed a 75% excise cut two weeks before the Coalition’s announcement
- The Australian Medical Association (AMA) president, Danielle McMullen, stated the Coalition’s plan would undermine decades of public health efforts and increase smoking rates
- Labor’s Tanya Plibersek called the Coalition’s plan ‘will kill people’ and argued it would undermine Australia’s low smoking rates
- Nicotine consumption in Australia rose by about 30% since 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
- The illicit tobacco market share jumps to 80% when including vapes and nicotine pouches
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of gold to the UK from the US and Canada, citing geopolitical unrest
- A six-year-old boy died from scurvy despite long-term concerns over diet, as found by the Queensland coroner
- Gang violence in Sydney is not ‘out of control,’ according to the police minister, following two shootings in two days
- Australia’s new EPA approved a Queensland coal project until 2055, clearing threatened woodland and koala habitat
- Vanuatu’s climate minister Ralph Regenvanu criticized Australia for not stopping fossil fuel expansion, calling for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels
- Anthony Albanese denied Pacific leaders had raised objections to fossil fuel expansions, stating they ‘have respect for the position that we’ve taken’
- One Nation won the Western Australian byelection for the seat of Secret Harbour on Saturday
- Australians are buying electric vehicles (EVs) instead of holidaying in Europe, according to the latest national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
- The Coalition’s excise cut would be reviewed after two years
- The National Drug Strategy Health Survey found daily smoking among Australians aged 14+ fell from 8.3% in 2022-23 to a record low 5.6% in 2025, while daily vaping remained at 3.6%
- The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) conducted the National Drug Strategy Health Survey
- The Coalition’s policy assumes lower cigarette prices would draw customers away from illicit alternatives
- Shadow Health Minister Anne Ruston acknowledged the Coalition wants to see smoking and vaping rates decrease but noted it isn’t happening under Labor’s current policies
- The ABS estimated nicotine consumption rose by about 30% in the past four years, but this includes vapes and other nicotine products
- The Coalition’s excise cut would reduce the cost of a legal cigarette packet from around $50 to $26
- The illicit tobacco trade has generated an estimated $4 billion to $7 billion in profits for crime gangs
- Nicotine consumption rose about 40% between 2017 and 2025 due to the black market
- Tobacco excise revenue peaked at around $16 billion in 2019-20 and fell to around $8 billion in the last financial year, forecast to halve again this year
- There have been 193 firebombings and other forms of arson linked to the tobacco trade in Victoria, with six deaths
- A ute reversed into a tobacco shop in Melton, Victoria, and two men set it on fire, with one critically injured in an explosion
- The illegal vape market is worth about $1.6 billion, with 96% of vapes being illegal
- Former deputy chief medical officer Nick Coatsworth argued that cancer charities and lobby groups oppose the Coalition’s plan because their goal is to eliminate smoking entirely
- The Coalition’s policy assumes smokers will choose legal products over illicit ones, reducing crime profits
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian and ABC state the Coalition’s excise cut would reduce the price of a packet of 20 cigarettes from about $30 to about $6, but The West says it would reduce the cost from around $50 to $26
- The Guardian and ABC report that illicit tobacco sales account for over 50% of the market, while The West states the illicit market controls as much as 80% of the market
- The Guardian and ABC mention a $200 million law enforcement push, but The West does not specify this exact figure, focusing instead on broader law enforcement challenges
- The Guardian and ABC cite a 30% rise in nicotine consumption since 2021, while The West states a 40% rise between 2017 and 2025, with differing timeframes and bases for comparison
- The Guardian and ABC report that the Coalition’s policy would increase tax revenue by about $8 billion over four years, but The West does not mention this specific revenue estimate
Source Articles
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