Victorian 2026 election preference deals and Prahran seat dynamics

Consensus Summary

The Victorian 2026 election hinges on a controversial preference deal between the Liberal Party and One Nation, which could reshape the state’s political landscape. The Liberals have confirmed they will preference One Nation above Labor in key seats, including Prahran and Caulfield, while Labor will run an open ticket in these seats, refusing to direct preferences to other parties. Prahran, currently held by Liberal Rachel Westaway on a razor-thin 1.3% margin, is a battleground where the Greens are seeking to reclaim the seat they lost in a 2025 byelection. The Greens accuse Labor of abandoning them to secure a Liberal-One Nation government, a claim Labor dismisses as a 'principled stand' against One Nation’s policies.

The preference deal follows a turbulent political climate, including Labor’s decision not to field a candidate in the 2025 Prahran byelection, which contributed to the Greens’ loss. The Jewish community in Caulfield and St Kilda East has also played a role, with groups like J-United campaigning against the Greens over their stance on the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Liberals’ alliance with One Nation has drawn criticism from moderate voters, who argue the party is prioritizing far-right support over traditional conservative values. The Greens, buoyed by recent polling gains, see Prahran as a critical test of their ability to regain inner-city seats.

Key figures in the debate include Liberal leader Jess Wilson, who defended the preference deal as a strategic choice, and Labor minister Anthony Carbines, who accused the Liberals of a 'nudge-nudge wink-wink' arrangement with One Nation. Greens leader Ellen Sandell condemned Labor’s open ticket as 'unforgivable,' warning it could hand the election to a divisive coalition. One Nation’s James Ashby made clear his party’s hostility toward Labor, stating they would 'put them last' to ensure their removal from power. The tension between these parties reflects broader divisions over immigration, social policies, and the future direction of Victoria.

While the Guardian and ABC agree on the core details of the preference deal and its potential consequences, they differ in emphasis. The Guardian highlights the role of community groups like J-United in the Prahran byelection and the Liberals’ internal strategy of not explicitly campaigning to put Labor last. ABC, however, focuses on the broader electoral implications, including the loss of polling booths in regional areas and the Greens’ proposed healthcare expansions in Richmond. The ABC also provides deeper context on the Liberals’ leadership struggles, including Brad Battin’s downfall and Jess Wilson’s rise, which has shaped the party’s current approach.

The election, set for November 28, promises to be one of the most consequential in Victoria’s history, with the balance of power potentially resting on a single seat. The preference deal has already sparked outrage among voters, particularly those who oppose One Nation’s policies. Labor’s refusal to direct preferences to the Greens in Prahran could further alienate progressive voters, while the Liberals’ alliance with One Nation risks losing moderate support. As parties campaign across the state, the outcome remains uncertain, with the Greens, Liberals, and Labor all vying for influence in a tightly contested race.