Australia's net overseas migration trends and political debate in 2025-2026
Consensus Summary
Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) fell to 301,000 in 2025, down from 306,000 in 2024, marking the lowest increase since the 556,000 peak in 2022 after border reopening. Both sources agree NOM has remained above 300,000 for 14 consecutive quarters, well above the government’s long-term target of 225,000. Political debate centers on whether the decline is sufficient, with the opposition Coalition and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party demanding deeper cuts, while Labor defends its measured approach, emphasizing housing supply and workforce needs. Economists note regional disparities, with Queensland and Western Australia seeing significant migration increases due to strong local economies, while NSW and Victoria have returned to pre-pandemic levels. The government’s May 2026 budget projects further declines, but critics argue current levels remain unsustainable amid housing and infrastructure pressures.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Net overseas migration (NOM) in Australia was 301,000 in 2025, down slightly from 306,000 in 2024.
- NOM has remained above 300,000 for 14 consecutive quarters as of 2025.
- The peak of NOM was 556,000 in 2022 following the reopening of borders after COVID-19.
- The Australian government’s long-term forecast for NOM is around 225,000 per year.
- The May 2026 federal budget forecast NOM to drop to 295,000 in 2026-27, 245,000 in 2027-28, and 225,000 in 2028-29.
- Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that NOM has 'come down under Labor' and is 'lower again' in 2025.
- Queensland’s NOM increased by 75% and Western Australia’s by 250% compared to pre-COVID levels.
- NSW and Victoria’s NOM returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party advocates for capping visas at 130,000 per year and deporting visa overstayers.
- Shadow Immigration Minister Jonno Duniam criticized Labor for failing to reduce migration, calling 301,000 'far too high'.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Immigration Minister Tony Burke described the government’s approach as 'sensible' and 'measured', prioritizing skilled workers.
- The federal budget revised up migration forecasts by 55,000 people across the current and next financial year, attributing it to temporary migrants staying longer.
- The total population increased by 1.5% in 2025, rising by 412,500 people.
- International student numbers declined slightly, and temporary visa holders reduced by 10% over the year.
- Opposition Leader Angus Taylor foreshadowed 'sweeping cuts' to migration under a Coalition government, linking it to housing supply.
- Tony Burke conceded migration must align with housing supply but warned cutting migration 'the wrong way' could worsen housing shortages.
- Economist Terry Rawnsley from KPMG noted Australia has settled into a 'new normal' of NOM around 300,000 per year, 25% above historical levels.
- Australia’s mid-2025 population was about 350,000 less than Treasury’s 2019 pre-pandemic prediction.
- Pauline Hanson declared multiculturalism a 'failed policy' and called for a 'monocultural' society in a National Press Club address.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The ABC states the 2025 NOM figure is 'almost unchanged' from 2024 (306,000), while the Guardian describes it as a 'lowest increase since mid-2022' without specifying the exact change.
- The ABC reports the government revised up migration forecasts by 55,000 people, but the Guardian does not mention this specific revision.
Source Articles
Migration dips as Coalition accuses government of failing to meet targets
Net overseas migration remained above 300,000 last year, fuelling opposition claims Labor has locked in an unsustainable new normal despite the number of arrivals continuing to fall.
Australian net overseas migration falls to lowest level since 2022 – but the Coalition says that’s still too high
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show migration growth is above pre-pandemic levels but tracking steadily down Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Net overseas migration added 301,000 people to Australia’s population last year, the lowest increase since mid-2022 but still above the pre-pandemic pace. The new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics come amid an increasingly fraught political debate around immigration, following Pauline Hanson’s declaration