Australian federal budget backlash boosts One Nation support, reshaping 2028 election dynamics
Consensus Summary
Australian politics is undergoing a seismic shift as One Nation surges ahead of the Coalition and nearly matches Labor’s primary vote following the May 2026 federal budget. The budget’s controversial changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing have triggered voter backlash, with polls showing Labor’s support eroding from 30–31% in April to 28–29% in May, while One Nation’s vote climbed to 28–31%. The Coalition, meanwhile, has stagnated at 20–23%, leaving it marginalized in a potential three-way contest. Public dissatisfaction is acute, with 60–63% of respondents believing Australia is heading in the wrong direction, and only 25–26% approving of the budget. Pauline Hanson’s rising popularity—including a net-zero favourability rating and 25% preferred prime minister support—highlights a growing anti-establishment sentiment, while Anthony Albanese’s approval has plummeted to -17 or -19. The next election, likely in 2028, could see a hung parliament if One Nation continues gaining ground, as both major parties struggle to connect with voters amid economic uncertainty and policy resistance.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- One Nation’s primary vote increased to 28% (Guardian) and 31% (Newscomau) in May 2026, surpassing or nearing Labor’s 28–29% support.
- Labor’s primary vote fell to 28–29% in May 2026, down from 30% (Guardian) and 31% (Newscomau) in April.
- The Coalition’s primary vote was 20–23% in May 2026, down from 22–24% in April.
- Anthony Albanese’s net favourability dropped to -17 (Guardian) and -19 (Newscomau) in May 2026.
- Pauline Hanson’s net favourability was at 0 (Newscomau) and her preferred PM support was 25% (Newscomau) in May 2026.
- The budget introduced changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing in May 2026, restricting negative gearing to new properties and altering CGT discounts.
- 60–63% of respondents in polls said Australia is heading in the wrong direction in May 2026.
- Only 25–26% of Australians approved of the 2026–27 budget overall (Guardian: 25%, Newscomau implied low support).
- The poll margin of error was approximately 3% (Guardian) and 3.4% (Newscomau).
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Only 25% of respondents backed the budget, while 56% believed Labor had fallen short of expectations since the 2025 election.
- Angus Taylor’s hardline immigration policies (capping immigration to new house builds and limiting welfare to citizens) had majority support (58% and 57%, respectively).
- The $250 Working Australians Tax Offset was the most popular budget measure (47% support).
- 33% of voters supported taxing assets and wages equally, while 32% wanted investment income taxed higher than wages.
- The poll was conducted by Essential Media with 1,000+ respondents between May 19–25, 2026.
- One Nation’s primary vote surged by 4 points to 31% in the AFR/Redbridge poll (May 25–28), while Labor dropped 3 points to 28%.
- Redbridge Group Director Kos Samaras stated the two-party system is ‘gone’ and the contest is now between Labor and One Nation, with the Coalition as a ‘spectator’.
- Pauline Hanson said she was ‘prepared for leadership’ and considering a move from the Senate to the House of Representatives.
- The poll showed Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over One Nation narrowed from 55–45 to 51–49, and over the Coalition at 51–49 (52–48 with 2025 preferences).
- The Roy Morgan poll (May 18–24) showed One Nation at 25.5% and the Coalition at 23%, with Labor leading 53–47 on two-party preferred.
- The poll attributed voter dissatisfaction to fuel shortages, energy crises, and the US-Iran ceasefire’s economic impact.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports One Nation’s primary vote was 28% (May 2026), while Newscomau reports it was 31% (AFR/Redbridge poll) and 25.5% (Roy Morgan poll).
- The Guardian states Labor’s primary vote was 29% in May 2026, while Newscomau reports it as 28% (AFR/Redbridge) and 31% in December 2025 (trend).
- The Guardian’s poll (May 19–25) and Newscomau’s Roy Morgan poll (May 18–24) differ on One Nation’s primary vote (28% vs. 25.5%).
- Newscomau’s AFR/Redbridge poll (May 25–28) shows Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over One Nation at 51–49, while Roy Morgan (May 18–24) shows Labor leading 53–47.
- The Guardian’s Essential poll (May 2026) shows 60% of Australians disapprove of Albanese, while Newscomau’s Redbridge poll shows his net favourability at -19 (implied ~64% disapproval).
Source Articles
Shock new poll shakes federal politics
A dramatic public response to the federal budget has reshaped the political landscape, driving a major realignment in primary votes according to a new poll.
Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s housing and tax changes fail to win over voters as support for One Nation swells
Just 25% of Australians polled back the budget while the majority believe the government has fallen short of expectations over the past year Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Labor’s key budget measures on housing and tax have failed to win over Australians, with only a third or fewer voters backing negative gearing and CGT changes – and many holding significant doubts the changes will make things easier for first home buyers, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
Poll shock: One Nation surges past the Coalition
One Nation’s lead over the Coalition has reached its widest margin since the Liberal leadership spill that forced Susan Ley out.