Labor’s 2026 budget backlash fuels One Nation’s rise in Australian politics
Consensus Summary
Australian politics is undergoing a seismic shift as Labor’s 2026 federal budget faces widespread rejection, propelling Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to the front of the pack. Multiple polls confirm One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 31%, overtaking Labor’s 28% and the Coalition’s 20%, marking a historic challenge to the traditional two-party system. The budget’s controversial tax changes—restricting negative gearing and altering capital gains tax discounts—have alienated key demographics, particularly younger voters and renters, despite Labor’s claims of intergenerational fairness. Polls show only 25% of Australians approve of the budget overall, with deep skepticism about its economic impact, while One Nation capitalizes on pervasive pessimism, with 90% of its supporters believing the country is heading in the wrong direction. Labor’s approval ratings have plummeted, and even the Coalition struggles to benefit from the backlash, as voters increasingly reject both major parties in favor of anti-establishment alternatives. The political landscape now suggests a potential hung parliament if One Nation continues its rise, with Hanson positioning herself as a viable prime ministerial candidate, particularly among Gen X voters who overwhelmingly prefer her over Albanese.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- One Nation’s primary vote increased to 31% (from 27% in previous polls), surpassing Labor’s 28% and the Coalition’s 20% in multiple polls (Redbridge/AFR, ABC, News.com.au).
- Labor’s federal budget received broadly negative reception across demographics, with 55% of respondents in the Guardian Essential poll believing it would not benefit the nation.
- Pauline Hanson leads as preferred prime minister among Gen X voters (30% vs. Albanese’s 27%), according to ABC and News.com.au polls.
- The budget’s capital gains tax and negative gearing changes were the most controversial, with only 33% supporting the negative gearing restrictions and 32% supporting CGT changes for shares (Guardian Essential poll).
- 63% of respondents in the Redbridge/AFR poll believe Australia is heading in the wrong direction, with One Nation voters overwhelmingly (90%) sharing this view.
- Labor’s net approval rating dropped to -19 (Albanese) and -18 (Chalmers) in the AFR/Redbridge poll, while Hanson’s net favourability rose to 0.
- The budget’s $250 Working Australians Tax Offset was the most popular measure, with 47% support in the Guardian Essential poll.
- One Nation’s primary vote has surged past the Coalition’s in multiple polls, including a Roy Morgan poll showing One Nation at 25.5% vs. Coalition’s 23%.
- Only 25% of Australians in the Guardian Essential poll approved of the budget overall, with 39% disapproving and 24% ambivalent.
- The budget’s housing measures were designed to help 75,000 first-home buyers over a decade, but home ownership has fallen by 3% (280,000 homes) since the 50% CGT discount was introduced in 1999 (ABC, Guardian).
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Tony Barry (Redbridge director) stated: 'It’s as if Labor designed a budget to turbocharge more anti-establishment sentiment and pump up One Nation’s tyres.'
- Gen Z voters showed the least awareness of the budget, with 47% claiming they had not noticed 'very much' and 14% saying nothing at all.
- Pauline Hanson told Sky News she would not rule out running for a seat in the House of Representatives at the next election, referencing One Nation’s victory in the recent Farrer by-election.
- Housing Minister Clare O’Neil said: 'We’re tackling those changes and we’re doing it the right way' regarding intergenerational equity challenges.
- Treasurer Jim Chalmers said: 'We know supply is the main game, but tax policy plays an important role.'
- Kos Samaras (Redbridge Group Director) said: 'The two-party system most Australians grew up with is gone.'
- The Coalition now leads Labor on economic management by 28% to 22% in the AFR/Redbridge poll.
- Angus Taylor’s net favourability dropped from -2 to -4 in the AFR/Redbridge poll.
- Roy Morgan poll (May 18-24) showed 60.5% of Australians believe the country is 'going in the wrong direction'.
- The poll suggests a hung parliament is likely if Labor or the Coalition face One Nation in a two-party preferred scenario.
- Peter Lewis (Essential Media) noted: 'There’s high levels of uncertainty about the government’s budget policies and their impact.'
- Only 25% of respondents in the Guardian Essential poll backed the budget, while 56% believed Labor had fallen short of expectations since the 2025 election.
- The Coalition’s immigration policies (capping immigration to new house builds) gained 58% support in the Guardian Essential poll.
- The Guardian Essential poll found 30% of people believed Labor’s changes would make the housing market more unfair for young people.
- The poll was conducted after the budget was released two weeks prior (late May 2026).
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The ABC reports One Nation’s primary vote is at 31% in the Redbridge poll, while the Guardian Essential poll shows One Nation at 28% (one point behind Labor).
- The ABC states 6% of Gen Z voters noticed 'a great deal' about the budget, while the Guardian Essential poll does not provide a comparable breakdown for Gen Z awareness.
- News.com.au reports One Nation’s primary vote surged to 31% in the AFR/Redbridge poll, but the Roy Morgan poll (cited in News.com.au) shows One Nation at 25.5% in a separate survey.
- The ABC claims 58% of Gen Z voters think Australia is heading in the wrong direction, while the Guardian Essential poll does not specify Gen Z’s exact sentiment but notes broader pessimism.
- The Guardian Essential poll shows Labor’s primary vote at 29%, while the ABC reports it at 28% in the Redbridge poll.
Source Articles
Young Australians reject budget as One Nation popularity climbs further
Labor's federal budget is falling flat with its target demographic as millennials say they'd rather vote for One Nation than Labor or the Greens, according to a new Redbridge poll.
Shock new poll shakes federal politics
A dramatic public response to the federal budget has reshaped the political landscape, driving a major realignment in primary votes according to a new poll.
Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s housing and tax changes fail to win over voters as support for One Nation swells
Just 25% of Australians polled back the budget while the majority believe the government has fallen short of expectations over the past year Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Labor’s key budget measures on housing and tax have failed to win over Australians, with only a third or fewer voters backing negative gearing and CGT changes – and many holding significant doubts the changes will make things easier for first home buyers, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
Australians’ pessimism about the future is fuelling support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | Tony Barry
If Labor can’t define their purpose, their base will look elsewhere for change or political disruption For those Australians thinking of voting One Nation, Pauline Hanson is their wrecking ball and truth teller. One of the big conversation points among the political and media class is whether One Nation’s primary vote will run up against some form of a ceiling. Continue reading...
Poll shock: One Nation surges past the Coalition
One Nation’s lead over the Coalition has reached its widest margin since the Liberal leadership spill that forced Susan Ley out.