El Niño event amplified by climate change and its impacts on Australia and global weather
Consensus Summary
Both THEAGE and SMH report that the world is approaching an El Niño event, with Pacific Ocean temperatures at 0.7 degrees above normal, nearing Australia’s 0.8-degree threshold for declaration. Experts like Dr. Andrew Watkins from Monash University confirm the likelihood of El Niño developing this winter, though the US uses a lower 0.5-degree threshold. The World Meteorological Organisation predicts an 80% chance of El Niño between June and August 2026, rising to 90% by November, while NOAA expects it to emerge by July. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology forecasts reduced winter rainfall across southern and eastern regions, with broader impacts including drought, extreme heat, bushfire risks, and late harvests. The Climate Council highlights that climate change is intensifying these effects, making even La Niña years hotter than past El Niño years. Both sources emphasize the compounded risks of marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and reduced snow cover, with potential economic and environmental consequences globally.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The world is on the cusp of an El Niño weather event, with Pacific Ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific at 0.7 degrees warmer than normal (Australian threshold for El Niño is 0.8 degrees, US threshold is 0.5 degrees).
- Adjunct Professor Dr. Andrew Watkins from Monash University’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment stated that Australia is currently in a neutral phase but close to El Niño conditions.
- The World Meteorological Organisation issued a consensus declaration predicting an 80% chance of El Niño for June to August 2026, and a 90% chance between July and November 2026.
- The Bureau of Meteorology predicted lower winter rainfall averages across much of Victoria, NSW, the ACT, Queensland’s southern and central areas, Western Australia, and parts of Tasmania.
- The Climate Council warned that climate change is exacerbating El Niño and La Niña effects, with La Niña ‘cold years’ today hotter than El Niño ‘hot years’ of the last century.
- El Niño typically causes droughts, heat, and fire risks in Australia and Asia, floods in parts of the Americas, and reduced crop yields globally.
- The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated El Niño is likely to emerge by July 2026.
Source Articles
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