Victoria’s Big Build royal commission hearings begin amid election fallout

Consensus Summary

Victoria’s royal commission into the Big Build corruption scandal is set to begin public hearings in early November 2026, just two weeks before the 28 November state election. The inquiry, ordered by Premier Ben Carroll, will scrutinize Labor’s handling of major infrastructure projects over the past 12 years, including allegations of criminal infiltration and financial mismanagement. Both the *Guardian* and ABC agree the hearings will force Labor to confront long-standing corruption claims, with the CFMEU and Sunbury rail projects as early focal points. Polling from August 2024, cited by both outlets, shows ‘corruption and integrity failures’ remain the top voter concern, with 2,084 respondents identifying the issue as a barrier to supporting Labor.

The royal commission’s establishment marks a sharp turn from the tenure of Jacinta Allan, who resisted calls for an inquiry despite mounting allegations. Carroll, who became premier after Allan’s downfall, framed the commission as a necessary step to restore integrity, though Labor insiders now fear the timing could derail its election campaign. The *Guardian* highlights that Deborah Glass, the state’s ombudsman from 2014 to 2024, had publicly demanded the inquiry as early as June 2024, weeks before Allan’s resignation. Early submissions, including those from planning expert William McDougall, accuse Labor of prioritizing political announcements over rigorous analysis, creating conditions for misconduct.

Key figures in the drama include Carroll, who has positioned the commission as proof of his commitment to transparency, and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, who faces pressure over the Coalition’s fiscal plans. The *Guardian* reports that Labor’s internal divisions are deepening, with some MPs and unions—like the Electrical Trades Union—distancing themselves from the party amid the scandal. Meanwhile, ABC notes that the Coalition plans to broaden the inquiry’s scope to include all trade unions and political incentives behind the Big Build, potentially inflicting further damage on Labor. Both outlets emphasize the high stakes: if Labor loses, the royal commission will define Carroll’s legacy, while the Coalition could use it to exploit voter discontent.

The two sources diverge on framing and emphasis. The *Guardian* focuses on the human cost of the scandal, quoting Glass’s call for a ‘necessary examination of a shameful chapter in Victoria’s history,’ and detailing the CFMEU’s role in the Sunbury rail project controversies. ABC, however, leans into the electoral calculus, with former strategist Kosmos Samaras criticizing Carroll for making the scandal a central campaign issue. The ABC also highlights fiscal concerns, including Labor’s $197 billion debt and the Reserve Bank’s rate hike to an 18-year high on Melbourne Cup Day, framing economic anxiety as a parallel election battleground. While the *Guardian* stresses the union movement’s fractures, ABC underscores the Coalition’s delayed release of costings, set for the campaign’s final days.

Unresolved questions loom over the hearings and their political fallout. The *Guardian* suggests the commission could deliver a ‘forensic analysis’ of the Big Build’s failures, though it acknowledges the process will take time. ABC, however, warns that Labor’s poll position remains weak, with no bounce expected from Carroll’s integrity push. The Coalition’s plans to sell government land for a $1.3 billion budget boost—announced just days before the hearings—add another layer of uncertainty. Both outlets agree the next two weeks will be pivotal, but they differ on whether the commission will ultimately benefit Labor’s credibility or accelerate its electoral decline. Early voting begins on November 18, with at least 1 million ballots already cast before the election, adding urgency to the unfolding drama.