Farrer by-election: Coalition preferences One Nation over independent Michelle Milthorpe
Consensus Summary
The Farrer by-election in New South Wales has become a pivotal contest between independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley, with the Liberal and National parties strategically preferencing Farley over Milthorpe. Milthorpe, a teacher backed by Climate 200, has positioned herself as a regional voice critical of major parties, while One Nation seeks to expand its influence following strong recent polling. The Coalition’s decision to preference One Nation has drawn sharp criticism from Milthorpe, who argues it reflects fear of losing support to Hanson’s party. The by-election, triggered by the retirement of long-serving MP Sussan Ley, is seen as a test for One Nation’s federal ambitions after its surge in South Australia. Milthorpe’s campaign highlights regional issues like immigration, renewable energy infrastructure, and justice reforms, contrasting with One Nation’s focus on stricter immigration policies. With preferences potentially decisive, the outcome hinges on voter behavior and whether the Coalition’s strategy will backfire by handing the seat to One Nation.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Liberal and National parties will preference One Nation candidate David Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe in the Farrer by-election.
- Michelle Milthorpe is a 47-year-old teacher from Jindera, NSW, running as an independent in the Farrer by-election.
- David Farley, the One Nation candidate, is a 69-year-old local agribusiness consultant.
- The Farrer by-election is triggered by the retirement of former opposition leader Sussan Ley, who announced her departure after a leadership challenge in early 2026.
- Michelle Milthorpe’s campaign is backed by Climate 200, a funding vehicle linked to the teal independent movement.
- Matt Canavan, Nationals Leader, stated in a social media post that the Nationals are preferencing One Nation ahead of Milthorpe because she is backed by supporters of net zero and water buybacks.
- The by-election is scheduled for 9 May 2026.
- Michelle Milthorpe previously reduced Sussan Ley’s margin to 6.2% at the 2025 federal election.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Michelle Milthorpe claimed the Coalition preferenced One Nation due to fears Pauline Hanson’s party will 'wipe them out'.
- Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski instructed voters to put herself first, Nationals candidate Brad Robertson second, and David Farley fourth, with Milthorpe placed ninth.
- One Nation candidate David Farley instructed voters to put Brad Robertson second, Raissa Butkowski last, and Milthorpe second-last at 11th.
- Michelle Milthorpe mentioned her family’s history of voting for the Nationals and Liberals, including her admiration for former Nationals leader Tim Fischer.
- The Coalition’s preference deal comes after weeks of pressure on Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce over the rehiring of convicted rapist Sean Black.
- Michelle Milthorpe began her political journey after typing 'how to become an independent' in her phone in February 2024 while dissatisfied with Sussan Ley.
- Milthorpe’s daughters disclosed a sexual assault case in 2013, leading her to advocate for justice reforms, including pre-recorded testimonies for child survivors.
- Milthorpe rejects the 'teal' label, arguing her regional context differs from inner-city independents like Helen Haines.
- She supports renewable energy but believes coal and gas are necessary for grid stability and criticizes the lack of infrastructure for regional communities hosting renewable projects.
- Milthorpe supports place-based immigration to address workforce shortages in health and aged care in Farrer.
- Milthorpe urged voters to consider preferences carefully, suggesting voting for her as number one or two and numbering every box.
- The latest Newspoll and Resolve polls show a slight dip in One Nation support, though Matt Canavan dismissed it as minor.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Newscomau states Michelle Milthorpe was placed ninth on the Liberals’ how-to-vote card, while the Guardian does not specify her exact position but confirms she is placed below One Nation.
- Newscomau claims Milthorpe was placed ninth on the Liberals’ card, but the Guardian’s mock how-to-vote card from Raissa Butkowski’s website lists Milthorpe in ninth position, aligning with Newscomau’s claim (not a contradiction, but clarification).
- Guardian mentions Milthorpe’s daughters were aged eight and five when they disclosed the sexual assault, while Newscomau does not provide specific ages.
Source Articles
‘Wipe them out’: Farrer candidate lashes preference deal
A Climate 200-backed independent has lashed a preference deal by the Coalition, claiming they are afraid One Nation will “wipe them out”.
Don’t call me a teal: independent Michelle Milthorpe carves a fresh path as she takes on One Nation in Farrer byelection
Milthorpe – a teacher and advocate for child sexual assault survivors – says city MPs have little understanding of challenges facing the regions Michelle Milthorpe has come a long way since 29 February 2024 when she first typed “how to become an independent” in her phone’s browser while sitting in her car. The teacher from Jindera, a short drive north of Albury, was fed up with the local member she had voted in many times before, Sussan Ley . Continue reading...
Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in blow to Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection
Independent candidate and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four cornered-contest for the 9 May poll Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast The Liberals and Nationals will preference One Nation ahead of Michelle Milthorpe in the Farrer byelection in a potential blow to the independent’s hopes of winning the 9 May race. Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four cornered-contest, meaning the flow of prefer