Farrer by-election tests One Nation and independents against Coalition in Australia
Consensus Summary
The Farrer by-election on May 9, 2026, marks a historic test for Australian politics, as the Coalition’s long-held seat faces a challenge from One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe. Triggered by Sussan Ley’s resignation after losing the Liberal leadership, the race is framed by voter disillusionment with major parties, with water management, healthcare, and immigration dominating the campaign. Both the Liberal and Nationals parties are preferencing One Nation ahead of Milthorpe, a move critics argue could hand One Nation its first lower house seat. Milthorpe, backed by Climate 200 and regional groups, rejects the 'teal' label, while Farley leverages One Nation’s populist appeal, particularly on water and immigration. Early voting suggests high engagement, with 40% of voters casting ballots before election day. The outcome could reshape conservative politics, with potential national consequences for the Coalition’s future.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Farrer by-election is scheduled for May 9, 2026, triggered by Sussan Ley’s resignation as MP after losing the Liberal leadership in February 2026.
- Farrer is a large electorate covering 126,563 square kilometres (16% of NSW), including Albury, Griffith, Deniliquin, Leeton, and border towns along the Murray River.
- The frontrunners in the by-election are One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe, with the Liberal (Raissa Butkowski) and Nationals (Brad Robertson) trailing.
- The Liberal and Nationals parties are preferencing One Nation ahead of Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards, which could help Farley win the seat.
- Michelle Milthorpe is backed by the Voices for Farrer group and Climate 200, but rejects being labeled a 'teal' independent.
- Water management, healthcare shortages, and immigration are key issues in the campaign, with all major candidates opposing further water buybacks in the Murray-Darling Basin.
- Pre-polling opened on April 28, 2026, with nearly 50,000 voters (40% of the electorate) expected to cast early ballots.
- Farrer has been a Coalition stronghold since its creation in 1949, with Sussan Ley holding the seat for 25 years.
- One Nation’s David Farley is a former agribusiness consultant and chair of Speak Up 4 Water, while Milthorpe is a teacher and former advocate for child sexual assault survivors.
- Labor is not contesting the by-election, leaving the race to the Coalition, One Nation, and independents.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Former ABC election analyst Antony Green predicts One Nation will likely win Farrer due to Coalition preference deals, even if Milthorpe leads on first preferences.
- Griffith Business Chamber president John Nikolic welcomed national attention on Farrer, calling it a neglected region.
- Albury resident Alison Dandridge (96) said this by-election felt different from past elections, with more focus on local issues.
- Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski is a lawyer and Albury City councillor, while Nationals candidate Brad Robertson is a former Australian Army colonel.
- The ABC reported that 47,000 voters (40%) cast early ballots before May 9, with Albury’s pre-poll centre expected to boost Milthorpe’s vote.
- Marcia and Chris Wright, lifelong Labor voters, switched to One Nation due to rising costs and dissatisfaction with major parties.
- Jess Russell, a 32-year-old veterinarian, supports Milthorpe because she is 'not quite as right-wing as everyone else' and focuses on healthcare.
- One Nation’s rise coincides with Coalition pressure on immigration policies, with Farley emphasizing 'loose and wild' immigration settings.
- Greens candidate Richard Hendrie argues water buy-backs are necessary for river health, contrasting with other candidates’ opposition.
- Michelle Milthorpe’s campaign is partly funded by Climate 200, but she distances herself from the 'teal' label, emphasizing regional issues over climate.
- The Farrer count began on May 9, 2026, with polls closing and counting underway in Sussan Ley’s former seat.
- Liberal and National volunteers expressed 'resignation' about the outcome, with one MP reportedly predicting the Coalition had already lost the seat.
- Michelle Milthorpe noted a shift in voter sentiment since the 2025 federal election, with One Nation supporters viewing the party as a 'credible alternative'.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian reports One Nation’s support has 'fallen slightly' in recent polls, while the ABC notes One Nation remains a frontrunner with Farley leading in internal polling.
- The ABC states Milthorpe ‘secured 20% of first-preference votes in the 2025 federal election,’ but the Guardian does not explicitly confirm this exact figure.
- The Guardian describes Milthorpe as 'tipped to eclipse the Coalition’s two candidates,' while the ABC frames her as neck-and-neck with Farley but trailing in preference flows.
- The ABC mentions Milthorpe’s 'passion for health services' as a key issue, while the Guardian emphasizes her opposition to 'net zero' policies as a reason for Coalition preference deals.
- The Guardian cites Matt Canavan stating One Nation is preferred over Milthorpe due to her 'net zero and water buybacks' support, but the ABC does not attribute this specific reasoning to Canavan.
Source Articles
Farrer voters' return to the ballot box might make political history
A fascinating four-cornered contest is brewing as voters in the southern NSW seat of Farrer head to the ballot box for the second time in 12 months.
Newsroom Edition: Michelle Milthorpe on fighting One Nation in Farrer – podcast
This Saturday’s byelection in Sussan Ley’s former seat of Farrer is expected to be a tight two-horse race between a community independent and a One Nation candidate – with none of the major parties in serious contention. The independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe speaks to political editor Tom McIlroy on the Australian Politics podcast about her second time vying for the regional seat, why she resists being labelled as a ‘teal’ and her position on climate and environmental policies in her elec
Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in blow to Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection
Independent candidate and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four cornered-contest for the 9 May poll Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast The Liberals and Nationals will preference One Nation ahead of Michelle Milthorpe in the Farrer byelection in a potential blow to the independent’s hopes of winning the 9 May race. Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four cornered-contest, meaning the flow of prefer
Voters in Farrer set to elect new MP after three months in spotlight
After three months of intense campaigning, voters in the NSW electorate say whoever wins today's poll must act on the promise to make noise in Canberra.
Something has changed in Australia. The voters of Farrer may tell us what, and how much
The major parties look like also-rans in the byelection on 9 May, with One Nation and an independent favoured to fight it out. Is this a minor curiosity, or a political earthquake? Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast On the main strip of Holbrook, Marcia and Chris Wright are having an afternoon beer. The unassuming town sits almost halfway between Sydney and Melbourne, hundreds of kilometres down or up the Hume Highway. Continue reading...
Don’t call me a teal: independent Michelle Milthorpe carves a fresh path as she takes on One Nation in Farrer byelection
Milthorpe – a teacher and advocate for child sexual assault survivors – says city MPs have little understanding of challenges facing the regions Michelle Milthorpe has come a long way since 29 February 2024 when she first typed “how to become an independent” in her phone’s browser while sitting in her car. The teacher from Jindera, a short drive north of Albury, was fed up with the local member she had voted in many times before, Sussan Ley . Continue reading...
Farrer count kicks off as polls close
Counting is under way in the Farrer by-election, in a key vote that could shake up Australian politics and deal a blow to the major parties.
‘Wipe them out’: Farrer candidate lashes preference deal
A Climate 200-backed independent has lashed a preference deal by the Coalition, claiming they are afraid One Nation will “wipe them out”.
Michelle Milthorpe on fighting One Nation in Farrer - podcast
This Saturday’s byelection in Sussan Ley’s former seat of Farrer is expected to be a tight two-horse race between a community independent and a One Nation candidate – with none of the major parties in serious contention. The independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe speaks to political editor Tom McIlroy about her second time vying for the regional seat, why she resists being labelled as a ‘teal’ and her position on climate and environmental policies in her electorate Read more: Continue reading.
Everyone is talking about Farrer, here is what you need to know – podcast
This weekend’s byelection in the NSW regional electorate of Farrer could yield an historic result that signifies a shift in Australia’s political landscape. Since its creation, the seat has always been held by a Liberal or National candidate - the last being former opposition leader Sussan Ley, whose resignation triggered this vote. But the frontrunners this time are not from any of the major parties. Instead, it’s tipped to be a hotly contested battle between an independent and a One Nation can
The graphs that explain Farrer's by-election on Saturday
The first electoral test for both new coalition party leaders, Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan, sees the opposition at serious risk of losing Farrer for the first time since the seat was created in 1949.
Farrer voters speak up as pre-polling begins in blockbuster by-election
Pre-polling commences in the seat of Farrer for the hotly contested by-election triggered by the resignation of former opposition leader Sussan Ley.
One Nation's outcome in Farrer could be a watershed moment
The Coalition's preference deals in Farrer could help fracture the Liberal Party's moderate base and invigorate dissatisfied voters.
By echoing the hateful policies of One Nation, the Liberal party risks becoming a recruiting agent for extremist groups | Malcolm Turnbull
People who promote hatred of Muslims risk driving them to Islamic State. They are making Australia less safe The Farrer byelection looks as though it will be a contest between the local independent, Michelle Milthorpe, and the One Nation candidate, David Farley. Farrer’s last two MPs, Sussan Ley and Tim Fischer, led their parties. If voters elect Milthorpe or Farley, it will be another seat torn from Coalition heartland and handed to a minor party or independent. Continue reading...
Live: Polls close in Farrer as counting gets underway in Sussan Ley's former seat
Polling booths across Farrer have closed as a crowded contest of candidates jostle for Sussan Ley's former seat in NSW. Follow live.
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