Potential strong El Niño event and its impacts on Australia’s weather and global temperatures
Consensus Summary
Two news articles from 2026 highlight the growing likelihood of an El Niño event developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with potential impacts on Australia’s weather and global temperatures. Both sources agree that El Niño could lead to drier and hotter conditions in Australia’s southeast, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, with below-average rainfall forecasted for May to July 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology and other global organizations, including the World Meteorological Organization, have noted increasing confidence in the event’s development, though there is some disagreement about its strength and timing. El Niño events typically raise global temperatures by around 0.1–0.2°C, and experts warn this event could contribute to breaching the 1.5°C global warming threshold. The Indian Ocean’s temperature patterns may also play a role in influencing Australia’s rainfall, with some models suggesting cooling in the northwest could further reduce precipitation. While forecasters emphasize that the strength of El Niño does not always correlate with the severity of its impacts, the consensus is that Australians should prepare for heightened risks of drought, heatwaves, and fire conditions in the coming months.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- A potential El Niño event is forecasted to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming months, with a likelihood of emerging by July 2026.
- The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has indicated that sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are currently near average, but sub-surface temperatures are unusually warm (anomalies exceeding 6C in some areas).
- El Niño events typically lead to below-average rainfall in winter and spring, above-average maximum temperatures (outside the tropics), increased drought risk, and more intense heat extremes in southern Australia.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has noted an increasing chance of an El Niño developing in the Pacific, which historically increases the chances of hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s east.
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts below-average rainfall for May to July 2026 in much of eastern Australia, including Queensland and New South Wales.
- El Niño events can raise global average temperatures by around 0.1–0.2°C, with some experts suggesting this event could contribute to breaching the 1.5°C global warming threshold.
- The Indian Ocean’s temperature patterns may also influence Australia’s rainfall, with some models suggesting cooling in the northwest could further reduce rainfall chances.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Weatherzone predicts a 'very strong' or 'super El Niño' event, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest this century, potentially exceeding thresholds used by other organizations.
- Sky News Australia meteorologist Rob Sharpe predicted in March an 80% chance of an El Niño event developing, with the Indian Ocean likely joining forces to exacerbate impacts.
- Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecasted a 70% chance of El Niño developing by June 2026 and a 94% probability of it persisting through the end of 2026.
- The UK’s Met Office stated there is growing confidence that this event could be at the 'upper end of the historical range,' with global temperatures potentially rising by around 0.1°C.
- The 1998 El Niño event was previously the warmest year on record at the time, with El Niño contributing to increased temperatures.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s Caitlin Minney stated that forecasts at this time of year tend to be less reliable, and the strength of an El Niño does not necessarily correlate with the intensity of its impacts on Australia’s rainfall.
- Dr. Peter van Rensch from Monash University noted that El Niño’s influence on Australian rainfall is historically strongest in June-July and October-November, and its impacts depend on the location of the warmest Pacific waters.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast shows the bottom two-thirds of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures from May to July 2026, with climate change contributing to this trend.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Newscomau states that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently classified as 'neutral,' while the Guardian does not explicitly mention the current ENSO status but focuses on the potential development of El Niño.
- Newscomau suggests that some models predict a 'super El Niño' event, while the Guardian cautions that forecasts at this time of year are less reliable and warns against overemphasizing the term 'super El Niño.'
- Newscomau cites a 94% probability of El Niño persisting through the end of 2026 from Columbia University, while the Guardian does not provide a specific probability figure for persistence.
Source Articles
‘Very strong event’: What looming ‘super El Nino’ means for Aussies this winter
After a summer of extreme heat, bushfires and dry conditions, millions of Australians have been told they’re not in the clear yet.
Australia’s south-east set for drier and hotter winter as BoM forecasts potential El Niño
Queensland and NSW set for lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, while temperatures in most of the country likely to be higher than normal Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Large parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean. Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to