Australia's AUKUS nuclear submarine program faces delays, cost overruns, and 'plan B' debates
Consensus Summary
Australia’s AUKUS nuclear submarine program is facing growing concerns over delays, cost overruns, and the feasibility of meeting key milestones. The program, valued at up to $368 billion, hinges on acquiring three US Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s and building a new fleet of Australian-designed submarines by the 2040s. However, US submarine production has fallen behind schedule, with current rates of 1.1–1.2 boats per year far below the 2.33 needed to supply Australia. The US Navy now forecasts reaching two submarines per year by 2032, but even this falls short of AUKUS requirements. Meanwhile, Australia’s aging Collins-class submarines are undergoing an $11 billion extension to last into the 2040s, but critics warn this may not be enough to cover a potential capability gap. Defence Minister Richard Marles has dismissed calls for a 'plan B,' insisting Australia must stick to the AUKUS pathway, though some analysts argue the risks are too high to ignore contingency plans. The US Navy’s own shipbuilding plan excludes AUKUS submarines, raising further doubts about Australia’s ability to secure the promised vessels.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- AUKUS is Australia's largest-ever defence project, costing up to $368 billion over three decades.
- Australia plans to acquire three US Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, with the first expected in 2032.
- The US currently builds 1.1–1.2 Virginia-class submarines per year, but needs to reach 2.33 per year to supply Australia.
- Australia’s Collins-class submarines, the oldest of which is 30 years old, are undergoing an $11 billion 'life of type' extension to last into the 2040s.
- The US Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan excludes AUKUS submarines from its projections, mentioning it only as a footnote.
- Australia has contributed $2.76 billion (US$2 billion) to the US and $863 million (£469 million) to the UK to boost submarine-building capacity.
- The US Navy now takes 10 years to build a Virginia-class submarine, up from six years in the 2000s.
- Defence Minister Richard Marles has repeatedly stated Australia must 'stick to the plan' on AUKUS and dismissed calls for a 'plan B'.
- The first Australian-built AUKUS-class submarine is expected in the early 2040s, likely 2042.
- The US Navy’s production rate of Virginia-class submarines is forecast to reach two per year by 2032, still below the 2.33 needed for AUKUS.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Former Australian ambassador to the US, Joe Hockey, warned he was 'nervous' about the planned delivery of Virginia-class submarines to Australia.
- Defence Minister Richard Marles said trading ties with China cannot insulate Australia from conflict, citing Ukraine as an example.
- The Pentagon warned European allies, including the UK, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, of delayed missile shipments due to depleted US stockpiles from the war in Iran.
- Taiwan’s Defence Minister Wellington Koo said the first of 66 F-16V fighter jets, originally due in 2023, is now expected in September 2026, nearly three years behind schedule.
- Defence Minister Marles said AUKUS is 'kind of plan C' after considering building submarines in Japan or France.
- The Australian Navy’s chief, Mark Hammond, urged Australians to have more confidence in AUKUS and warned against 'politicising' the project.
- The US Navy’s shipbuilding plan explicitly excludes AUKUS submarines from its projections, mentioning it only as a footnote.
- The Congressional Research Service has considered an alternative where US-commanded Virginia-class submarines operate out of Australian bases instead of being sold to Australia.
- The US Navy’s Acting Secretary, Hung Cao, stated that submarines under US or Australian command would be 'interchangeable' to the enemy.
- The US Navy’s 2026 budget put an extra $400 million towards AUKUS over the next three years, bringing the Australian Submarine Agency’s total resourcing to $2.13 billion by mid-2029.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The ABC states Defence Minister Richard Marles is 'not alarmed' about US submarine production delays, while the Guardian highlights US Navy admissions that production targets are slipping further behind schedule.
- The ABC reports the US Navy aims to reach a production rate of 2.33 Virginia-class submarines per year by the early 2030s, but the Guardian notes the US Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan does not account for any additional submarines for AUKUS.
- The ABC claims the US Navy will reach two Virginia-class submarines per year by 2032, while the Guardian states the US Navy has pushed that target to 2032 but still falls short of the 2.33 needed for AUKUS.
- The ABC mentions a $2.75 billion Australian contribution to the US for submarine production, while the Guardian states the figure is $2.76 billion (US$2 billion).
Source Articles
No 'plan B' for submarines if AUKUS fails, says defence minister
The defence minister brushes off calls for a "plan B" in case AUKUS fails, declaring it would be a step towards "giving up" on acquiring any new submarines at all.
Why there's more talk of an AUKUS 'plan B'
Defence industry experts argue Australia should consider how to prevent a naval "capability gap" — or risk being left exposed.
As Aukus spending and delays blow out, will Australia’s nuclear submarines ever materialise?
The deal will cost Australia $368bn, but the strongest signal yet came this week that the US is not building enough subs for itself, let alone for Australia Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast As Australia’s Aukus spending blows out further, US submarine building falls years further behind: the strongest signal yet that America’s promised Virginia-class submarines are increasingly unlikely to ever materialise under Australian command. This week the US navy admitted it wo