Leadership crisis and potential challenge to Jacinta Allan as Victorian Premier ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing internal pressure over her leadership amid record-low approval ratings of -37% and speculation about a potential challenge ahead of the November 2024 election. The most likely contenders are Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (Right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (Left faction), both of whom publicly dismiss any plans to challenge Allan. While multiple sources confirm factional discussions about a leadership change, no formal challenge has been announced, and Allanâs supporters emphasize her united caucus backing. The Socialist Left faction, which controls nearly 60% of Laborâs 69 seats, is reportedly the driving force behind the push, citing her unpopularity and perceived lack of factional support since her appointment by former Premier Daniel Andrews. Contradictions exist between sources on the intensity of these discussions, with some portraying them as preliminary and others suggesting coordinated factional maneuvering. Despite the speculation, most ministers and MPs publicly reaffirm their loyalty to Allan, arguing that a leadership spill could destabilize the party further and signal defeatism. Some within Labor propose alternative solutions like retirements and ministry refreshes to address concerns without a full leadership change.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership speculation amid low approval ratings and upcoming November 2024 election
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (Right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (Left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders
- Jacinta Allan dismissed leadership rumors as 'scallywag gossip' and stated she has 'great support from my strong and united team' (ABC, NEWSCOMAU, THEAGE, GUARDIAN)
- Jacinta Allanâs net approval rating is -37% (DemosAU poll cited in Herald Sun and Guardian Australia)
- The Victorian Labor Party has 69 parliamentary seats in total (THEAGE, GUARDIAN)
- The Socialist Left faction controls approximately 39 of the 69 Labor caucus seats (GUARDIAN)
- No formal leadership challenge has occurred in Victorian Labor since 1999 (ABC, THEAGE)
- Jacinta Allan became Premier in September 2023 following Daniel Andrews' resignation (THEAGE, GUARDIAN)
- Labor is seeking a fourth consecutive term in the November 2024 election (NEWSCOMAU, THEAGE)
- 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor in a statewide Redbridge survey (NEWSCOMAU)
- The ALPâs 2013 national party rules require a vote of party members and caucus for a leadership challenge (THEAGE, GUARDIAN)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- ABC reported multiple Labor figures confirmed preliminary conversations about a potential leadership challenge but stressed they were not 'counting numbers' to gauge support for a full-throated attack
- ABC cited a 2022 state election where Labor lost half a dozen MPs to the left due to branch-stacking scandal and factional tensions
- ABC mentioned Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely, with some fearing instability could make Allanâs leadership untenable
- ABC noted that if Allan chose to fight a challenge, the party could be bogged down in a lengthy process before the election
- NEWSCOMAU highlighted concerns about organised crime infiltrating government infrastructure contracts as a factor in leadership pressure
- NEWSCOMAU reported the Herald Sun confirmed 'more than a dozen senior sources across both Left and Right factions' discussing leadership change
- NEWSCOMAU included Allanâs criticism of the Liberal Partyâs relationship with One Nation, stating they offer 'cuts and more division'
- THEAGE reported that backroom discussions about leadership change are driven by factional powerbrokers who previously failed to move against Allan a year ago
- THEAGE mentioned that a senior right faction figure said the transaction cost of changing leadership would likely outweigh benefits, warning it would signal 'no confidence in your own premier'
- THEAGE included a quote from an anonymous right faction MP: 'Change is death'
- THEAGE noted that Laborâs 2013 rules require more than 60% of caucus support to replace a sitting premier, though itâs unclear if this applies to state premiers
- Guardian Australia reported Allanâs baggage includes her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and oversight of the Big Build amid corruption allegations
- Guardian Australia cited a DemosAU poll (Herald Sun) putting Allanâs net approval at -37%, her lowest since taking over from Andrews in late 2023
- Guardian Australia detailed a push from a grouping of Socialist Left MPs in the southeast, who allegedly blame Allan for not having their support since her appointment by Andrews
- Guardian Australia reported that a senior right faction figure said 'nothing will happen' without the left pulling the trigger, and that a spill would look like 'an admission we think weâre going to lose'
- Guardian Australia mentioned that some within Labor argue for a 'reset' through retirements and ministry refreshes rather than a leadership spill
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC and THEAGE state that no one has suggested 'counting numbers' to gauge support for a challenge, but GUARDIAN implies some MPs are 'weighing the future' and 'quietly weighing' a leadership change
- NEWSCOMAU reports 'more than a dozen senior sources' across factions discussing leadership change, while ABC and THEAGE describe these as 'preliminary conversations' or 'backroom discussions' without formal intent
- THEAGE claims a senior right faction figure said 'nothing will happen' without the left pulling the trigger, but GUARDIAN reports a right faction MP explicitly denying support for a spill and calling it 'not a magic wand'
- ABC and THEAGE emphasize that Labor MPs are mostly supportive of Allan despite polling concerns, while GUARDIAN highlights that some Socialist Left MPs have 'never been happy' with her leadership since her appointment
- NEWSCOMAU states that 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor, but this figure is not corroborated by other sources as a consensus fact
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