Leadership crisis speculation within Victorian Labor Party ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing growing speculation about her leadership amid low approval ratings and factional pressure ahead of the November 2024 state election. Multiple sources confirm internal discussions about a potential leadership challenge, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams as the most likely contenders. Allanâs net approval rating stands at -37%, the lowest among state leaders, and her handling of corruption scandals and infrastructure projects has drawn criticism. While Allan dismisses the rumors as âanonymous gossip,â factional powerbrokersâparticularly from the Socialist Leftâare reportedly pushing for a change, though a formal challenge is not imminent. Key ministers publicly back Allan, and factional unity remains strong, though some argue a leadership shift could reset the partyâs campaign against the Liberal opposition. The ALPâs rules require a vote among party members and caucus, but the process could destabilize the government if it becomes contested.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership spill speculation ahead of the November 2024 state election
- More than a dozen senior sources (from both Left and Right factions) confirmed leadership discussions are under way (Herald Sun, ABC, Guardian)
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (Right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (Left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders (The Age, ABC, Guardian)
- Jacinta Allanâs net approval rating is -37% (DemosAU poll cited in Herald Sun and Guardian)
- Jacinta Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023 after succeeding Daniel Andrews
- Victorian Labor Party caucus has 69 seats (Guardian, ABC)
- ALP national party rules require a vote of party members and caucus ballot for leadership challenges (ABC, Guardian)
- No formal leadership challenge has occurred in Victoria since 1999 (ABC, Guardian)
- Jacinta Allan dismissed leadership speculation as 'anonymous gossip' from 'scallywags' (all four sources)
- 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor (Redbridge survey commissioned by Australian Financial Review, cited in NEWSCOMAU)
- Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2024 (all sources)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Liberal Partyâs cozying up to One Nation is a key attack point for Labor (Allanâs quote)
- Redbridge survey found 69% of Coalition voters would prefer One Nation over Labor
- Allan accused Liberals of offering 'cuts and more division'
- Allan said she has 'great support from her strong and united Labor team'
- Allan mentioned 'organised crime infiltrating huge government infrastructure contracts' as a concern
- Factional powerbrokers tried but failed to move against Allan a year ago when Laborâs election result was better-than-expected
- Backroom discussions about leadership change have taken place in recent weeks
- One factional chief said anyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better result
- Victorian Labor Party HQ distanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a 20-seat loss
- ALPâs 2013 national party rules require more than 60% of caucus support to replace a sitting premier (unsure if this applies to state premiers)
- MPs from both factions believe the government has reached a point of needing to mitigate an almost certain election loss
- A senior right faction figure said the transaction cost of changing leadership would likely be greater than the benefit
- MPs from the right faction said they needed to 'hold their nerve' against an unstable opposition
- Tim Richardson said a leadership spill would require a vote among party members and caucus, with equal weight
- No-one has suggested anyone was 'counting numbers' to gauge support for a full leadership challenge
- Jess Wilson (Liberal leader) is described as a 'relatively unknown quantity' to voters
- Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely
- A move on Allan is not expected this week
- Local Government Minister Nick Staikos said nobody had approached him to canvass a change in leadership
- Mordialloc MP Tim Richardson said Labor would 'smash it' during the November election
- Steve Bracks rolled John Brumby as opposition leader in 1999 (context for last leadership spill)
- Jacinta Allanâs baggage includes her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and the Big Build corruption scandal
- Allanâs hesitation to act on corruption allegations is cited as a major issue
- The south-east Socialist Left faction (about 39 of 69 caucus seats) is blamed for the latest rumours
- Andrews himself was a member of the south-east grouping
- One MP said Allan is 'always on borrowed time' because she lacks left faction support
- A senior right faction figure said 'nothing will happen' without the left pulling the trigger
- Some argue waiting until after the May state budget would allow Allan to 'deliver the bad news' before a potential challenge
- Others suggest bringing forward retirements and refreshing the ministry as a less dramatic reset
- Benita Kolovos is Guardian Australiaâs Victorian state correspondent
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports Allanâs baggage includes her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and Big Build corruption, but this is not mentioned in other sources
- The Guardian states the south-east Socialist Left faction (39 of 69 seats) is driving the push for a leadership change, while other sources do not specify factional numbers or blame
- The Guardian claims Allan lacks left faction support and is 'always on borrowed time,' but other sources emphasize her public backing from key ministers like Williams and Carroll
- The Age reports a factional chief said anyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better result, while ABC and Guardian do not quote this exact sentiment
- The Guardian mentions a 20-seat loss claim from party HQ, but The Age explicitly states party HQ distanced itself from such claims
Source Articles
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