Leadership crisis and potential spill in Victorian Labor Party ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing internal pressure to step down amid record-low approval ratings of -37% and concerns over her leadership ahead of the November 2024 election. Multiple sources confirm factional powerbrokers from both the Left and Right are discussing a potential leadership challenge, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams as the primary contenders. Allan has dismissed the speculation as âscallywag gossipâ and insists she has strong caucus support, though anonymous sources in The Age and Guardian reveal deep divisions within the party. While a challenge is not imminent, the Guardian highlights Allanâs political vulnerabilities tied to past controversies like the cancelled Commonwealth Games and construction union corruption. The Age notes that a spill would require >60% caucus support and a party member vote, with some factional leaders cautioning against instability. Despite united public denials from ministers like Jaclyn Symes and Gabrielle Williams, internal polling and factional tensions suggest the crisis could escalate if Allanâs unpopularity persists.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership spill speculation due to low approval ratings and upcoming November 2024 election
- Allanâs net approval rating is -37% (DemosAU poll in Herald Sun) and only 20% of voters prefer her as premier (Resolve polling for The Age, February 2024)
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (Right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (Left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders
- Allan dismissed leadership speculation as âanonymous gossipâ from âscallywagsâ and stated she has âgreat support from my strong and united Labor teamâ
- Victorian Labor Party has 69 seats in caucus, with Left faction holding ~39 seats and Right faction holding the remaining ~30
- A leadership challenge would require a vote of party members and caucus, with ALP national rules requiring >60% caucus support to replace a premier (though Victorian-specific rules are unclear)
- Last Victorian Labor leadership spill occurred in 1999 when Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby as opposition leader
- Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrewsâ resignation
- A Redbridge survey (Australian Financial Review) found 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor in the November election
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Allan criticized Liberal Partyâs alliance with One Nation, stating âAll theyâre offering to the Victorian community is cuts and divisionâ
- Allan mentioned âorganised crime infiltrating huge government infrastructure contractsâ as a major concern
- Allanâs focus on âcost of livingâ was emphasized as her priority over leadership speculation
- Internal polling commissioned by Labor and media outlets indicates Allanâs unpopularity remains a drag on re-election prospects
- A factional chief stated âanyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better resultâ
- A senior right faction figure said âthe transaction cost of changing the leadership for a second time this term would likely be greater than the benefitâ
- Party HQ distanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a potential 20-seat loss
- Mordialloc MP Tim Richardson noted leadership spill rules require a vote among party members and caucus, with equal weight
- No-one has suggested anyone is âcounting numbersâ to gauge support for a full leadership challenge
- A move on Allan is not expected this week, but Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely
- Jess Wilson (Liberal opposition leader) is described as a ârelatively unknown quantity to votersâ
- Local Government Minister Nick Staikos said ânobody within the party had approached him to canvass a change in leadershipâ
- Allanâs âbaggageâ includes her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and oversight of the Big Build during alleged corruption in construction unions
- She was described as âalways on borrowed timeâ due to lack of support from Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping
- A Socialist Left MP stated âthey see it as an opportunity to moveâ because her polls are down
- One MP warned public leaks can âcreate a sense of inevitability that doesnât yet existâ
- A suggestion to wait until after the May state budget to allow Allan to âdeliver the bad newsâ before considering a challenge
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports Socialist Left factionâs south-east group is directly pushing for a leadership change, but these MPs emphatically denied it to the Guardian
- The Age states âa factional chief offered the view that anyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better result,â while the Guardian notes senior right faction figures are reluctant to move without left faction coordination
- The Guardian claims Allanâs âhesitation to act on corruptionâ is a major issue, but this detail is not mentioned in other sources
- The Age reports internal polling shows Labor heading for a loss of up to 20 seats, but Party HQ distanced itself from these claims
- The Guardian suggests a leadership spill would require coordination between factions, while The Age implies the left faction alone could trigger a challenge
Source Articles
âScallywagsâ: Premier bats away spill gossip
The Victorian Premier has batted away leadership spill rumours as âanonymous gossipâ peddled by âscallywagâ colleagues....
Jacinta Allan dismisses leadership rumblings as 'scallywag' gossip
The Victorian premier denounces speculation about her leadership as "scallywag" gossip amid growing concern that she could cost Labor government in November's state election....
Allan rejects leadership speculation as âscallywag gossipâ as MPs publicly back leader
Premier Jacinta Allan and a conga line of Labor MPs have dismissed speculative reports of a possible leadership challenge before the state election....
A âfew scallywagsâ gossiping or a premier under threat? Inside Laborâs push to ditch Jacinta Allan
More than a dozen Victorian Labor sources, including ministers and factional powerbrokers, confirm move for leadership change Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking ne...