Leadership crisis and potential spill in Victorian Labor Party ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing internal pressure to step down amid negative polling and factional divisions ahead of the November 2024 state election. Her net approval rating sits at -37%, and concerns over her leadership have resurfaced despite her partyâs better-than-expected 2023 election result. Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams are the primary contenders, though both have publicly dismissed any challenge. Multiple sources confirm factional discussions about a potential leadership change, with the Socialist Left faction reportedly leading the push, though these MPs deny involvement. Allan has repeatedly dismissed the speculation as âscallywag gossip,â while ministers and MPs have rallied behind her, emphasizing unity. Contradictions exist between sources on the extent of factional support for a challenge, with some reporting active internal debates and others downplaying the threat. The partyâs rules require a 60% caucus vote for a replacement, and a contested spill could risk destabilizing the government before the election.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership spill speculation ahead of the November 2024 state election
- Her net approval rating is -37% (DemosAU poll in Herald Sun) and 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor (Redbridge survey for Australian Financial Review)
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (Right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (Left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders
- Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023 after succeeding Daniel Andrews
- Laborâs 2023 state election result was better than expected, temporarily easing leadership pressure on Allan
- A leadership challenge would require a vote of party members and caucus, with a 60% threshold for replacement (national ALP rules, though Victorian specifics unclear)
- The last Labor leadership spill in Victoria was in 1999 (Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby)
- Jess Wilson is the current Liberal Party leader in Victoria
- The Victorian Labor caucus has 69 seats (39 from Socialist Left faction)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Allan accused âscallywagsâ of spreading âanonymous gossipâ and dismissed leadership speculation as âpolitickingâ
- Allan framed Liberal Partyâs alliance with One Nation as offering âcuts and divisionâ while Labor focuses on ânew solutionsâ
- Allan claimed âgreat support from my strong and united Labor teamâ and denied focus on anonymous gossip
- A factional chief stated âanyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better resultâ in internal discussions
- A senior right faction figure said âthe transaction cost of changing the leadership for a second time this term would likely be greater than the benefitâ
- A right faction MP warned âchange is deathâ and urged holding nerve against Liberal instability
- Labor HQ distanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a 20-seat loss
- A right faction MP said âwe just have to keep the show on the roadâ
- ABC reported âmultiple Labor figuresâ confirmed âtalks about an alternative pathâ but no one âcounting numbersâ
- A Labor source said âa challenge is not expected this weekâ but âLabor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikelyâ
- ABC noted âno formal challengeâ since 1999 (Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby)
- Guardian cited âmore than a dozen Labor sourcesâ including ministers and factional powerbrokers confirming a âpush for a leadership changeâ
- The Guardian reported âa grouping of Socialist Left MPs within the south-eastâ as the primary drivers of the push, though they denied it
- Guardian noted Allanâs âbaggageâ includes âcancelled Commonwealth Games, Big Build corruption, and her role as Andrewsâ deputyâ
- A Socialist Left MP said âsheâs always on borrowed timeâ and ânever had their supportâ despite being ânotionally in the leftâ
- Guardian suggested waiting until after the May budget or closer to the election to avoid costly by-elections
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports âa grouping of Socialist Left MPs within the south-eastâ are driving the push for a leadership change, but these MPs deny it
- The Age says âa factional chief offered the view that anyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better result,â while ABC states âno one has suggested anyone was counting numbersâ
- The Guardian claims âa push for a leadership changeâ is underway with âmore than a dozen sourcesâ confirming it, but ABC says âno one has approachedâ ministers to canvass a change
- The Age reports âa senior right faction figure said the transaction cost of changing leadership would be greater than the benefit,â while the Guardian says âsenior figures on the right are reluctant to move without the left pulling the triggerâ
- The Guardian cites âinternal polling showing Labor heading for a loss of up to 20 seats,â but The Age states Labor HQ âdistanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a 20-seat lossâ
Source Articles
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