Leadership crisis speculation within Victorian Labor Party ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing internal pressure over her leadership amid record-low approval ratings of -37% and concerns she may drag Labor to defeat in the November 2024 election. Multiple sources confirm factional discussions about a potential challenge, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams as the primary contenders. Allan dismisses the speculation as âscallywag gossip,â while senior MPs publicly reaffirm their support, though anonymous sources reveal divisions within the Socialist Left and right factions. Polling shows only 20% of voters back Allan, and One Nationâs growing influence among Coalition voters complicates Laborâs path to a fourth term. While no formal challenge is imminent, the Guardian highlights factional tensions and the Guardian/ABC debate whether a leadership change could reset the campaign or risk instability. Contradictions exist between sources on the urgency of a spill, the role of specific factions, and the severity of internal polling data.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership speculation ahead of the November 2024 state election
- Allanâs net approval rating is -37% (Demoscopy poll in Herald Sun and Resolve poll in The Age, February 2024)
- Only 20% of voters nominate Jacinta Allan as their preferred premier (Resolve poll, February 2024)
- Ben Carroll (Deputy Premier, Education Minister) and Gabrielle Williams (Transport Infrastructure Minister) are the most likely leadership contenders
- Allan dismissed leadership speculation as âanonymous gossipâ from âscallywagsâ (reported in The Age, Guardian, News.com.au, ABC)
- Victorian Labor Party has 69 seats in caucus, with Socialist Left faction holding ~39 seats
- Last Victorian Labor leadership spill occurred in 1999 (Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby)
- Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2024, seeking Laborâs historic fourth consecutive term
- 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor (Redbridge survey, Australian Financial Review)
- ALPâs 2013 national party rules require >60% caucus support to replace a sitting premier (rules untested in Victoria)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Allanâs unpopularity is linked to her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and Big Build corruption allegations (2010s construction union scandal)
- Anonymous Labor sources say factional powerbrokers tried and failed to challenge Allan in 2023 over election fears
- One factional chief stated âanyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better resultâ (anonymous source)
- Mordialloc MP Tim Richardson noted leadership spill rules require a vote among party members (adopted a decade ago)
- Senior right faction figure said âtransaction cost of changing leadership for a second time this term would likely be greater than the benefitâ
- Internal polling suggests Labor may lose up to 20 seats, but party HQ distanced itself from this claim
- South-east Socialist Left MPs are reportedly unhappy with Allanâs appointment by Daniel Andrews and are pushing for change
- One Socialist Left MP said âsheâs always on borrowed timeâ and ânever had their supportâ
- Another MP warned âpublic leaks can help create a sense of inevitability that doesnât yet existâ
- Some argue a leadership change should wait until after the May state budget or closer to election to avoid costly by-elections
- One MP suggested a âresetâ (retirements, ministry refresh) is needed instead of a rupture via spill
- Herald Sun reported âmore than a dozen senior sources across both Left and Right factionsâ confirmed leadership discussions
- Allanâs low approval ratings and organised crime concerns in infrastructure contracts are cited as internal pressures
- 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor (Redbridge survey, Australian Financial Review)
- ABC spoke to multiple Labor figures confirming âpreliminary conversationsâ about a potential challenge
- No one has âcounted numbersâ to gauge support for a full challenge yet
- Local Government Minister Nick Staikos said ânobody had approached him to canvass a change in leadershipâ
- Tim Richardson noted Labor would âsmash itâ during the November election despite leadership speculation
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports Socialist Left MPs in the south-east are pushing for a leadership change, but these MPs deny involvement and call it âa couple of people creating their own weatherâ
- The Age states factional powerbrokers tried and failed to challenge Allan in 2023, while the Guardian implies the right faction is currently reluctant to move without left support
- The Guardian suggests a leadership change could happen soon, but the ABC notes âno one has suggested anyone was counting numbersâ and a challenge is not expected this week
- The Age reports internal polling suggests Labor may lose up to 20 seats, but party HQ distanced itself from this claim in the same article
- The Guardian mentions Allanâs hesitation to act on corruption allegations during the Big Build, but this detail is not referenced in other sources
Source Articles
Allan rejects leadership speculation as âscallywag gossipâ as MPs publicly back leader
Premier Jacinta Allan and a conga line of Labor MPs have dismissed speculative reports of a possible leadership challenge before the state election....
âScallywagsâ: Premier bats away spill gossip
The Victorian Premier has batted away leadership spill rumours as âanonymous gossipâ peddled by âscallywagâ colleagues....
A âfew scallywagsâ gossiping or a premier under threat? Inside Laborâs push to ditch Jacinta Allan
More than a dozen Victorian Labor sources, including ministers and factional powerbrokers, confirm move for leadership change Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking ne...
Jacinta Allan dismisses leadership rumblings as 'scallywag' gossip
The Victorian premier denounces speculation about her leadership as "scallywag" gossip amid growing concern that she could cost Labor government in November's state election....