Leadership speculation and internal divisions within Victorian Labor Party ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing growing internal pressure to step down ahead of the November 2024 state election, with factional powerbrokers from both the left and right factions reportedly discussing a leadership challenge. Allan has dismissed the speculation as 'scallywag gossip,' while key ministers like Gabrielle Williams (left) and Ben Carroll (right) have publicly reaffirmed their support, denying any active push for a challenge. Polling shows Allanâs unpopularityâwith a net approval rating of -37%âis dragging down Laborâs prospects, though the party remains cautiously optimistic about its chances of securing a fourth consecutive term. The Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping is reportedly the most vocal in pushing for change, citing her controversial past roles and perceived lack of factional support, though others argue a leadership spill could destabilize the government further. While no formal challenge is imminent, the divisions highlight the partyâs internal tensions as it prepares for the election, with some advocating for a less dramatic 'reset' through ministry changes rather than a leadership spill.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership speculation ahead of the November 2024 state election
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders if a challenge occurs
- Jacinta Allan dismissed leadership speculation as 'anonymous gossip' and 'scallywag gossip' in multiple interviews (TheAge, ABC, NewsCorp)
- Laborâs state parliamentary caucus has 69 seats, with the Socialist Left faction holding approximately 39 seats
- Recent polling shows Jacinta Allanâs net approval rating at -37% (Demoscene poll cited in Guardian and Herald Sun)
- The Victorian Labor Party last had a leadership spill in 1999, with the current rules requiring a vote of party members and caucus (adopted in 2013)
- Ben Carroll stated he is 'not doing the numbers' and does not want to challenge Allan (TheAge, Guardian, ABC)
- Gabrielle Williams publicly denied seeking support for a leadership challenge and pledged full support to Allan (TheAge, Guardian, ABC)
- The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2024, with Labor seeking a fourth consecutive term
- The ALPâs national party rules require more than 60% support of caucus to replace a sitting premier (implied in TheAge and ABC)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Allan described speculative reports as 'anonymous gossip' from 'a few scallywags out there who might need a bit of a cuddle'
- A senior right faction figure said the 'transaction cost of changing the leadership for a second time this term would likely be greater than the benefit'
- One MP (right faction) said 'We just have to keep the show on the road. Change is death'
- Labor sources said the push for a leadership change is driven by the same factional powerbrokers who failed to move against Allan a year ago
- The partyâs Docklands headquarters distanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a 20-seat loss
- Allan became Victorian premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrews' resignation
- A right faction MP said 'You are signalling to the community you have no confidence in your own premier and not up to being in government'
- The ALPâs 2013 rules were adopted in response to the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era leadership instability
- Allanâs unpopularity is linked to her time as Daniel Andrewsâ deputy, the cancelled Commonwealth Games, and her role overseeing the Big Build during construction union corruption allegations
- The Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping has been 'never happy' with Allanâs appointment by Andrews and is now pushing for change due to her poor polling
- One Socialist Left MP said Allan is 'always on borrowed time' because she is 'notionally in the left' but lacks their support
- A senior right faction figure said 'nothing will happen' without the left pulling the trigger, noting 'a large enough grouping in the left are reluctant'
- Some within Labor argue for a 'reset' with retirements and ministry refreshes instead of a leadership spill
- A Redbridge survey found 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor
- The Herald Sun reported 'more than a dozen senior sources across both Left and Right factions' confirmed leadership discussions were under way
- Allan focused on cost of living and dismissed speculation as 'anonymous gossip peddled by scallywag colleagues'
- A Redbridge survey (commissioned by Australian Financial Review) found 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor
- Organised crime infiltration into government infrastructure contracts is a major concern for Allan
- The ABC spoke to multiple Labor figures who confirmed 'preliminary conversations' about a potential challenge but stressed no one was 'counting numbers'
- A move on Allan is 'not expected this week' but Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely
- Local Government Minister Nick Staikos said 'nobody within the party had approached him to canvass a change in leadership'
- Tim Richardson said 'Those two are absolutely wonderful leaders' referring to Carroll and Williams
- Steve Bracks rolled John Brumby as opposition leader in 1999, the last formal challenge in Victoria
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports the Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping is pushing for a leadership change, but the Guardian also quotes a Socialist Left MP denying this and calling it 'a couple of people creating their own weather'
- The Guardian states Allan is 'always on borrowed time' due to factional discontent, while TheAge and ABC emphasize her strong public backing from key ministers like Williams and Carroll
- The Guardian suggests a leadership challenge would require coordination between factions, but TheAge implies the right faction is reluctant to move without the left taking the lead
- TheAge and ABC report Allanâs net approval rating at -37% (Demoscene poll), but only TheAge and Guardian explicitly link this to her role in the Big Build and Commonwealth Games controversies
- The Guardian and NewsCorp cite a Redbridge survey showing 69% of Coalition voters would prefer One Nation over Labor, but only the Guardian connects this to broader Labor leadership instability
Source Articles
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