Leadership crisis and potential spill in Victorian Labor Party ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing internal pressure to step down amid persistent negative polling and factional dissent ahead of the November 2024 state election. Her net approval rating sits at -37%, the lowest among state leaders, with concerns over her handling of corruption allegations during her tenure as Daniel Andrewsâ deputy and the cancelled Commonwealth Games. Two key figures, Gabrielle Williams (left faction) and Ben Carroll (right faction), have been named as potential successors, though both have publicly dismissed any leadership ambitions. While the Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping is reportedly pushing for a change, the right faction remains reluctant to act without their support. Allan has repeatedly dismissed the speculation as âanonymous gossipâ from âscallywags,â and most senior ministers have reaffirmed their loyalty, arguing that a leadership spill would destabilize the government and risk costly by-elections. The ALPâs rules require a 60% caucus vote for a replacement, and some within the party advocate for a less dramatic âresetâ through retirements and ministry changes rather than a contested leadership battle. Despite the internal divisions, most sources agree a challenge is not imminent, with some cautioning that a change could backfire by signaling weakness ahead of the election.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan became Victorian premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrews stepped down
- Jacinta Allanâs net approval rating stands at -37% according to DemosAU (Herald Sun) and Resolve polling (The Age/ABC)
- Gabrielle Williams (Transport Infrastructure Minister) and Ben Carroll (Deputy Premier/Education Minister) are the most likely leadership contenders from the left and right factions respectively
- The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2024
- Laborâs factional structure includes about 39 seats for the Socialist Left faction out of 69 total caucus seats
- Jacinta Allan dismissed leadership speculation as âanonymous gossipâ from âscallywagsâ in multiple interviews (Guardian/ABC/The Age/Newscomau)
- Victoriaâs Labor Party last had a leadership spill in 1999 when Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby as opposition leader
- The ALPâs national party rules (adopted in 2013) require a vote of party members and caucus for a leadership challenge, with over 60% caucus support needed for a replacement (The Age)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping has been ânever happyâ with Allanâs appointment by Daniel Andrews and is now pushing for a change due to her polling performance
- A Guardian Australia source noted that a leadership challenge would require coordination between factions, with the right faction reluctant to act without the left pulling the trigger
- The Guardian reported that some within Labor argue for a âresetâ via retirements and ministry refreshes rather than a leadership spill
- The Guardian cited a 2022 branch-stacking scandal and defection of six MPs to the left as weakening the right factionâs ability to challenge Allan
- The Guardian mentioned that a contested spill would require a vote among party members, a rule adopted during the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era
- The ABC reported that Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely, with no one âcounting numbersâ for a full-throated attack
- The ABC highlighted that Jess Wilson (Liberal leader) is still relatively unknown to voters, with some Labor figures believing a new leader could help reset the campaign
- The ABC noted that a challenge could become self-fulfilling and destabilize the government, with some cautioning against instability sending a message to voters
- The ABC reported that Tim Richardson (Mordialloc MP) said Labor would âsmash itâ during the November election but was unsurprised by leadership speculation around Carroll and Williams
- The Age reported that backroom discussions have taken place about whether fresh leadership is needed to improve Laborâs re-election prospects, with one factional chief stating âanyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better resultâ
- The Age included a quote from a senior right faction figure stating that the âtransaction cost of changing the leadership for a second time this term would likely be greater than the benefitâ
- The Age mentioned that Laborâs Docklands HQ distanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a potential 20-seat loss
- The Age noted that leadership speculation has become a ârecurring featureâ of parliamentary sitting weeks
- The Age reported that Lily DâAmbrosio (Consumer Affairs Minister) labeled the reports of leadership tensions as âmanufactured gossipâ
- Newscomau reported that 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor according to a Redbridge survey commissioned by the Australian Financial Review
- Newscomau included Allanâs focus on the cost of living and her criticism of the Liberal Partyâs relationship with One Nation as part of her response to leadership speculation
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reported that the Socialist Left factionâs south-east grouping is directly pushing for a leadership change, but they emphatically denied this to the Guardian
- The Guardian stated that the right faction did not have the numbers to challenge Allan on their own in 2023, while the Age reported that the right faction is now more cautious about a challenge due to transaction costs
- The Guardian mentioned that the right factionâs most likely candidate, Ben Carroll, âechoed Allanâs commentsâ about the caucus being united, but the ABC reported Carroll as saying he âcouldnât be more proudâ of his role as deputy premier and denied seeking leadership
- The Age reported that some factional chiefs believe a new leader would lead to a better election result, while the ABC noted that some Labor figures caution against instability and a leadership change
- The Guardian and ABC both reported that Allanâs net approval rating is -37%, but the Guardian specifically cited DemosAU polling (Herald Sun) and Resolve polling (Age), while the ABC did not specify the exact polling source for this figure
Source Articles
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Jacinta Allan dismisses leadership rumblings as 'scallywag' gossip
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Allan rejects leadership speculation as âscallywag gossipâ as MPs publicly back leader
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