Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket face regulatory scrutiny in Australia and US
Consensus Summary
Two major US-based prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have grown into billion-dollar industries, offering bets on politics, sports, war, and pop culture. Both platforms are currently banned in Australia, where regulators like Acma and ASIC have warned about their unlicensed operations and risks of manipulation. Despite geo-blocking, Australians can access these markets via VPNs, with significant trading observed on Australian elections, economic indicators, and even specific words Prime Minister Anthony Albanese might use in Parliament. Ethical concerns persist, particularly over 'death markets' tied to conflicts like those in Ukraine and Yemen, and cases of insider trading involving military personnel. While some Australian politicians advocate for legalizing regulated prediction markets, gambling harm advocates warn of potential addiction and integrity risks. The Trump administration’s shift in regulation has also fueled the industry’s growth, with figures like Donald Trump Jr. serving as advisors to these platforms.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Kalshi and Polymarket are estimated to be worth over $20 billion combined, with billions traded weekly on their platforms.
- Polymarket and Kalshi are currently banned from operating in Australia, with geo-blocking used to restrict access, though VPNs can bypass this.
- Kalshi and Polymarket host markets on Australian politics, including the Farrer byelection (Polymarket: ~$500,000 traded, Kalshi: $98,572) and the next Australian House election (Kalshi: $16,000 traded).
- Kalshi hosted a market on specific words Anthony Albanese would use in Parliament (e.g., 'Iran', 'TAFE', 'Trump'), with $13,000 traded on these contracts.
- Polymarket offers 'death markets' on topics like Iran, Taiwan, Ukraine, Yemen, and Ebola, while Kalshi claims it does not offer such markets.
- Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the Trump administration shifted regulation to allow prediction markets, including sports betting.
- US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dycke was charged with using confidential government information to profit from Polymarket bets, allegedly making over $560,000.
- Australian regulators (Acma and ASIC) have warned about prediction markets, with Acma issuing a formal warning to Polymarket in 2025 for operating without a license.
- Kalshi and Polymarket have sponsorship deals with major US networks (CNN, CNBC, MLB, NHL).
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Kalshi suspended three US congressional candidates for betting on their own political races.
- US Republican Senator Bernie Moreno led an effort to prohibit US political staffers from using prediction markets, with Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer supporting the ban.
- Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski advocates for legalizing prediction markets in Australia but says markets on human organ trade should remain banned.
- Clive Palmer attended a Sydney event promoting FEX Global’s potential regulated prediction market, calling them an opportunity for wealth.
- US trader Caleb Davies made over $500,000 on prediction markets and reported suspicious activity, including insider trading on Spotify chart markets.
- Polymarket has been linked to war profiteering cases, including charges against an Israeli military reservist and civilian for using classified information to bet on military operations.
- Martin Thomas (Alliance for Gambling Reform) warned prediction markets could become a 'next wave' of gambling harm in Australia, with regulators struggling to keep up.
- Kai Cantwell (Responsible Wagering Australia) stated that prediction markets create 'serious integrity risks' due to lack of transparency and oversight.
- Polymarket took $28,000 in trading on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June cash rate decision, and $12,000 on whether Albanese would be 'out as prime minister' by June or December.
- ASIC described prediction market bets as 'high-risk and speculative,' noting no provider holds an Australian market license.
- Acma acknowledged that geo-blocking is ineffective due to VPN circumvention but has not formally investigated Kalshi beyond monitoring.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The ABC states Polymarket offers 'death markets' on topics like Iran, Taiwan, Ukraine, Yemen, and Ebola, while the Guardian does not mention this explicitly but focuses on broader ethical concerns.
- The ABC claims Kalshi does not offer 'death markets,' while Polymarket does, but the Guardian does not directly contradict this claim.
- The ABC reports that Kalshi has 'no current plans' to seek approval to operate in Australia, while the Guardian states Kalshi is 'committed to operating in a regulatory-first manner, including Australia,' without mentioning specific plans.
- The ABC highlights that Kalshi and Polymarket have powerful allies like Donald Trump Jr., while the Guardian does not mention this political influence.
- The Guardian emphasizes that Kalshi claims 'no trading' in Australia, while the ABC notes that geo-blocking is ineffective and Australians can access the platforms via VPNs.
Source Articles
Kalshi and Polymarket are billion dollar bets banned from Australia — for now
Kalshi and Polymarket have gone from obscure start-ups to two of the world's biggest prediction markets where users bet on yes-or-no questions spanning politics, pop culture and war.
‘We’re concerned’: US-based prediction markets taking bets on Australian elections and Albanese’s word choices
Regulators and gambling harm advocates have been closely watching the rise in popularity of Polymarket and Kalshi Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast US-based “prediction market” websites are taking tens of thousands of dollars in bets on Australian elections and even specific words the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, says in parliament, with gambling harm advocates and the wagering lobby raising alarm. Australian financial and media regulators said they were monitorin