Leadership crisis within Victorian Labor Party over Jacinta Allan's premiership ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing growing internal pressure to step down ahead of the November 2024 state election, with multiple sources confirming backroom discussions about a potential leadership challenge. Her net approval rating sits at -37%, the lowest among state leaders, and concerns over her handling of past controversies like the cancelled Commonwealth Games and construction union corruption have fueled factional divisions. While Ben Carroll (right faction) and Gabrielle Williams (left faction) are widely seen as the most likely contenders, the Socialist Leftâs south-east groupingâcomprising about 39 of the partyâs 69 seatsâhas been identified as a key driver behind the push for change, though they deny involvement. Allan has dismissed the rumors as 'scallywag gossip' and insists she enjoys strong caucus support, with ministers like Jaclyn Symes and Lily DâAmbrosio publicly backing her. Despite the speculation, no formal challenge is imminent, with some factions warning that a spill could destabilize the party further. Polling suggests Labor is struggling to connect with voters, and while a leadership change is not ruled out, many within the party argue a more strategic resetâsuch as refreshing the ministryâcould be a safer path than a contested spill.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership speculation ahead of the November 2024 state election
- Ben Carroll (Deputy Premier, Education Minister, right faction) and Gabrielle Williams (Transport Infrastructure Minister, left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders
- Jacinta Allan dismissed leadership rumors as 'scallywag gossip' and stated she has 'great support from my strong and united team' (ABC, THEAGE, GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU)
- Recent polling shows Jacinta Allan's net approval rating at -37% (DemosAU poll in Herald Sun and Resolve polling for THEAGE)
- The Victorian Labor Party has 69 seats in the state parliament (mentioned in GUARDIAN and implied in THEAGE)
- The last formal Labor leadership spill in Victoria occurred in 1999 when Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby (ABC and THEAGE)
- Jacinta Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrews' resignation (GUARDIAN and THEAGE)
- Labor sources confirm backroom discussions about a potential leadership change have taken place (THEAGE, GUARDIAN, ABC)
- The ALPâs 2013 national party rules require a vote of party members and caucus, with more than 60% support needed to replace a leader (THEAGE, GUARDIAN)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- ABC reported multiple Labor figures, including MPs, confirmed preliminary conversations about a potential leadership challenge but stressed no one was 'counting numbers' to gauge support for a full-throated attack
- ABC mentioned that Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely, with some fearing destabilization could make Allan's leadership untenable
- ABC noted that Labor would need to move soon to oust Allan if a challenge is to occur before the election, warning a contested spill could bog the party down in a lengthy process
- ABC included a quote from Treasurer Jaclyn Symes: 'I'm right behind Jacinta Allan. The caucus is right behind Jacinta Allan'
- ABC mentioned that Labor MPs Tim Richardson and Nick Staikos dismissed the speculation as 'idle gossip' and 'nothing more than gossip and innuendo'
- THEAGE reported that factional powerbrokers who tried to move against Allan a year ago (when Labor won better than expected) are now agitating again due to recent polling
- THEAGE included a quote from a factional chief: 'Anyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better result'
- THEAGE mentioned that Laborâs Docklands headquarters distanced itself from claims recent internal polling showed Labor heading for a loss of up to 20 seats
- THEAGE noted that a senior right faction figure said the 'transaction cost of changing the leadership for a second time this term would likely be greater than the benefit'
- THEAGE included a quote from Energy Minister Lily DâAmbrosio: 'Jacinta Allan is our leader, and she will lead us to [election victory]'
- GUARDIAN reported that Labor MPs have cited Allanâs baggage including her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and corruption allegations in the Big Build construction union
- GUARDIAN mentioned that a grouping of Socialist Left MPs in the south-east (about 39 of 69 seats) are reportedly pushing for a leadership change, though they denied it
- GUARDIAN included a quote from an MP: 'Sheâs always on borrowed time because while she was notionally in the left she never had their support'
- GUARDIAN reported that some within Labor argue for a less dramatic course like bringing forward retirements and refreshing the ministry to 'reset' without a rupture
- GUARDIAN noted that a senior right faction figure said 'nothing will happen without the left pulling the trigger'
- GUARDIAN mentioned that a Redbridge survey found 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor
- NEWSCOMAU reported that Jacinta Allan faced internal leadership pressure due to weak personal approval ratings and concerns over organised crime in government infrastructure contracts
- NEWSCOMAU included a quote from Jacinta Allan: 'Frankly, I am not focused on speculating on anonymous gossip'
- NEWSCOMAU mentioned that Labor is seeking a fourth term at the November election and highlighted the Liberal Party's cozying up to One Nation
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC and THEAGE both report that Ben Carroll and Gabrielle Williams are the most likely contenders, but GUARDIAN emphasizes the Socialist Left faction's south-east grouping as the driving force behind the push for change
- THEAGE reports that a factional chief said 'Anyone other than Allan would lead the party to a better result,' while ABC and GUARDIAN emphasize that no one is actively 'counting numbers' or openly seeking support for a challenge
- GUARDIAN reports that a grouping of Socialist Left MPs in the south-east (about 39 of 69 seats) are pushing for a leadership change, but they emphatically denied it to GUARDIAN
- ABC and THEAGE both state that a leadership challenge is not expected this week, but GUARDIAN suggests some agitating for change believe it would be best to wait until after the May state budget
- THEAGE reports that Laborâs Docklands headquarters distanced itself from claims recent internal polling showed Labor heading for a loss of up to 20 seats, while GUARDIAN does not mention this specific polling figure
Source Articles
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