Leadership crisis and potential challenge to Jacinta Allan as Victorian Premier ahead of 2024 election
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing internal pressure to step down ahead of the November 2024 election, with her net approval rating at -37% and persistent speculation about a leadership challenge. Ben Carroll (right faction) and Gabrielle Williams (left faction) are the primary contenders, though both have publicly dismissed any interest in challenging Allan. Two sources report that factional powerbrokersâparticularly from the Socialist Leftâare pushing for a change, while others emphasize that no formal challenge is imminent. Allanâs unpopularity, tied to issues like infrastructure corruption and her predecessorâs legacy, has created divisions within the party, with some arguing for a 'reset' through retirements or ministry changes rather than a spill. Contradictions exist over whether the left faction is actively driving the push, with denied involvement from those allegedly responsible. While most MPs publicly back Allan, internal polling suggests Labor could lose up to 20 seats, raising concerns about her ability to lead the party to re-election.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrews stepped down
- The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2024, less than nine months away
- Jacinta Allanâs net approval rating stands at -37% according to a DemosAU poll (Herald Sun) and Resolve polling (Age)
- Ben Carroll (Deputy Premier, Education Minister, right faction) and Gabrielle Williams (Transport Infrastructure Minister, left faction) are the most commonly named potential leadership contenders
- Jacinta Allan dismissed leadership speculation as 'anonymous gossip' and 'scallywag' gossip, calling it 'a few, a couple, handful of scallywags'
- The ALPâs Victorian caucus has 69 seats, with the Socialist Left faction holding approximately 39 seats
- No formal leadership challenge has occurred in Victorian Labor since 1999, when Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby
- Jess Wilson became Victorian Liberal leader late 2023, described as a 'relatively unknown quantity' to voters by ABC
- A Redbridge survey (Australian Financial Review) found 69% of Coalition voters would prefer One Nation over Labor in preferences
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- ABC reported multiple Labor figures, including MPs, confirmed preliminary conversations about a potential leadership challenge but stressed no one was 'counting numbers' for a full-throated attack
- ABC noted that Labor sources are divided on whether a challenge is inevitable or unlikely, with some fearing destabilization could make Allanâs leadership untenable
- ABC mentioned that a move on Allan is not expected this week but that a challenge could become inevitable if poor polling continues
- ABC reported that Labor would need to move soon to oust Allan if a challenge is to occur before the election
- ABC highlighted that a contested spill could bog down the party in a lengthy process, potentially costing by-elections if Allan resigns alongside supporters
- Guardian reported that Socialist Left MPs from the south-east grouping are directly blamed for pushing for a leadership change, though they denied involvement
- Guardian cited internal Labor polling showing Allanâs unpopularity is dragging on the partyâs re-election prospects, with just 20% of voters nominating her as preferred premier
- Guardian noted that the right faction, decimated by branch-stacking and defections, lacks the numbers to challenge Allan alone and is reluctant to move without left support
- Guardian reported that some within Labor argue for a 'reset' through retirements and ministry refreshes rather than a leadership spill
- Guardian mentioned that a leadership spill would require coordination between factions and a vote among party members, not just caucus
- The Age reported that factional powerbrokers tried but failed to move against Allan a year ago due to federal election results improving Laborâs position
- The Age included a quote from a right faction MP saying 'Change is death' and that transaction costs of changing leadership would outweigh benefits
- The Age noted that internal polling showed Labor might lose up to 20 seats, though party HQ distanced itself from this claim
- The Age reported that a leadership spill would require a vote of party members and caucus, with unclear thresholds for state premiers
- News.com.au reported that leadership discussions were under way across both left and right factions, citing more than a dozen senior sources
- News.com.au highlighted concerns over organised crime infiltrating government infrastructure contracts as a major issue for Allan
- News.com.au included Allanâs quote about focusing on cost of living and dismissing gossip as 'anonymous gossip peddled by scallywags'
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC and The Age report that a leadership challenge is not imminent, but Guardian suggests it could happen soon if the left faction moves before the May budget or election
- ABC states that no one has suggested 'counting numbers' for a challenge, while Guardian reports that some MPs are 'creating their own weather' and 'doing the numbers' privately
- The Age reports that factional powerbrokers tried and failed to move against Allan a year ago due to federal election results, but Guardian implies the right faction is still hesitant without left support
- Guardian claims that the south-east Socialist Left grouping is directly pushing for a challenge, though they emphatically denied involvement to Guardian
- News.com.au reports that more than a dozen senior sources across both factions confirmed leadership discussions, while ABC and The Age emphasize that no formal challenge is expected soon
Source Articles
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