Victorian Labor Party leadership crisis over Jacinta Allan amid election speculation
Consensus Summary
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces growing leadership speculation ahead of the November 2024 election, with her net approval rating at -37%—the lowest among state leaders. Two key contenders, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (right faction) and Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams (left faction), have publicly denied interest, though anonymous sources from both factions confirm internal discussions. Allan dismisses the rumors as ‘scallywag gossip’ and insists she has strong caucus support, while critics argue her unpopularity stems from controversies like the cancelled Commonwealth Games and corruption scandals. The ALP’s 2013 rules require a 60% caucus vote for a leadership change, but no formal challenge has occurred since 1999. Sources disagree on whether a spill is imminent, with some warning it could destabilize the party further, while others suggest waiting until after the May budget or closer to the election to avoid costly by-elections. The Liberal opposition’s ties to One Nation and preference flows add pressure, but Labor remains cautiously optimistic despite polling challenges.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Jacinta Allan is Victorian Premier and faces leadership speculation ahead of the November 2024 state election
- Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (right faction) and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams (left faction) are the most likely leadership contenders
- Allan’s net approval rating is -37% according to DemosAU (Herald Sun) and Resolve polling (Age), making her the only state leader in negative territory
- Allan dismissed leadership speculation as ‘anonymous gossip’ and ‘scallywag’ gossip, stating she has ‘great support from my strong and united team’
- The ALP’s 2013 national party rules require a vote of party members and caucus, with >60% support needed to replace a sitting premier (though unclear if this applies to state premiers)
- Victoria’s last Labor leadership spill occurred in 1999, with no formal challenge since then
- Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023 after succeeding Daniel Andrews
- The Victorian Labor caucus has 69 seats, with the Socialist Left faction holding ~39 seats
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Allan described speculative reports as ‘anonymous gossip’ from ‘a few scallywags out there who might need a bit of a cuddle’
- A senior right faction figure said changing leadership would signal ‘no confidence in your own premier’ and ‘saving the furniture’
- Backroom discussions about leadership change have been driven by factional powerbrokers who previously failed to move against Allan in 2023
- One MP noted leadership speculation is a ‘recurring feature’ of parliamentary sitting weeks and would likely continue
- Labor’s Docklands HQ distanced itself from claims of internal polling showing a 20-seat loss
- Allan’s unpopularity is linked to her handling of the cancelled Commonwealth Games and the Big Build corruption scandal
- The right faction is reluctant to move without the left faction pulling the trigger
- ABC confirmed ‘preliminary conversations’ about a potential leadership challenge but no one is ‘counting numbers’
- Jess Wilson (Liberal leader) is described as a ‘relatively unknown quantity’ to voters
- A move on Allan is ‘not expected this week’ but Labor sources are divided on inevitability
- Ministers presented a ‘united front’ at Parliament, dismissing speculation as ‘idle gossip’
- Tim Richardson (Mordialloc MP) said Labor would ‘smash it’ in November but was unsurprised by leadership speculation
- The last formal challenge against a Labor leader in Victoria was in 1999 when Steve Bracks rolled John Brumby
- Allan’s baggage includes her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and the Big Build corruption scandal, with criticism over her response to publicized corruption
- The south-east grouping of the Socialist Left faction is blamed by some for pushing the leadership change, though they deny it
- One Socialist Left MP said Allan is ‘always on borrowed time’ due to lack of factional support
- A senior right faction figure said ‘nothing will happen’ without the left faction pulling the trigger
- Some argue a leadership spill would look like an ‘admission we think we’re going to lose’
- Gabrielle Williams is described as the left faction’s ‘most likely candidate’ in a challenge
- A suggestion to bring forward retirements and refresh the ministry was proposed as a ‘reset’ alternative to a spill
- The Herald Sun reported ‘more than a dozen senior sources’ from both left and right factions confirmed leadership discussions
- Allan focused on cost of living and criticized Liberals for ‘cuts and division’ with ties to One Nation
- A Redbridge survey found 69% of Coalition voters would direct preferences to One Nation over Labor
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports the south-east Socialist Left grouping is pushing for a leadership change, but they emphatically deny it
- The Guardian states Allan is ‘always on borrowed time’ due to lack of factional support, while The Age and ABC emphasize her ‘strong and united team’
- The Guardian suggests a leadership spill would signal an admission of impending loss, but The Age’s senior right faction figure says Labor is ‘nowhere near that point’
- The Guardian mentions Allan’s ‘baggage’ from the cancelled Commonwealth Games and Big Build corruption as key issues, but this detail is not explicitly confirmed in The Age or ABC
- The Age and ABC both report Allan’s net approval is -37%, but only The Guardian and NewsCorp Australia explicitly link this to her handling of corruption scandals
Source Articles
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