One Nation poll surge threatens Labor and Coalition in Australia’s federal election
Consensus Summary
Two major polls released in late May 2026 reveal a dramatic surge for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which could win 46–59 seats (median 53) if an election were held today, according to RedBridge Group and Accent Research. The projections show Labor’s seat count dropping to 70–82 (median 76) from its current 94, while the Coalition would collapse to 7–21 seats (median 12), wiping out the National Party entirely. One Nation’s gains would come at the expense of both major parties, with Queensland as the strongest region and key Liberal MPs like Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie facing near-certain defeat. The poll follows David Farley’s recent by-election win for One Nation in Farrer, which both sources cite as legitimizing the party in voters’ eyes. A separate DemosAU poll shows One Nation’s primary vote at 28%, overtaking Labor’s 26%, with broader appeal beyond conservative voters. While ABC emphasizes caution from One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce and Labor’s Albanese defending economic policies, NEWSCOMAU underscores the risk of a fragmented parliament and Labor minority government. Both agree the results reflect deep voter dissatisfaction with the political establishment, though ABC highlights internal Liberal mobilization efforts and Albanese’s criticism of Taylor’s rhetoric on migrants.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- RedBridge Group and Accent Research poll (conducted 29 April–14 May 2026) projects One Nation winning between 46 and 59 seats, with a median of 53 seats if an election were held today.
- The same poll estimates Labor would win between 70 and 82 seats (median 76), down from its current 94, and the Coalition would win between 7 and 21 seats (median 12), wiping out the National Party entirely.
- One Nation’s projected gains include 37 seats from the Coalition and 16 from Labor, with Queensland as the strongest region (up to 21 seats, 18 with ≥90% win probability).
- The poll was conducted after David Farley’s One Nation win in the Farrer by-election (May 2026), which both sources cite as a catalyst for the party’s surge.
- Angus Taylor (Liberal) urged party mobilization in Victoria on 23 May 2026, calling for efforts to ‘rid’ Australia of ‘rotten’ Labor governments, per ABC and NEWSCOMAU.
- Pauline Hanson told the Australian Financial Review (cited by NEWSCOMAU) that voters now see One Nation as a ‘mainstream’ party after Farley’s by-election win, reducing perceptions of ‘wasted votes.’
- A separate DemosAU poll (14–20 May 2026) shows One Nation’s primary vote at 28%, overtaking Labor’s 26%, with the Coalition at 23% and Greens at 13%.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce called projections ‘hubristic’ and warned against assuming future election outcomes, stating the party faces ‘incredible responsibility’ from voters.
- Angus Taylor criticized Labor’s budget changes to negative gearing and CGT, calling public backlash ‘unlike anything in recent years,’ and threatened to block the NDIS bill unless Labor commits to a public inquiry.
- Labor backbencher Jerome Laxale said ‘more work needs to be done’ on CGT changes for small businesses, though Albanese defended the reforms as ‘the right thing to do.’
- Albanese criticized Taylor’s use of ‘migrants’ vs. ‘Australians’ language, calling it ‘not serious mainstream political language.’
- The poll snapshot (6,000+ voters) was described as a ‘low-to-high estimate’ of seat projections, not a definitive prediction.
- One Nation’s worst-case scenario leaves the Coalition with just 7 seats in NSW, Victoria, and the Northern Territory, losing all strongholds except Queensland and Western Australia.
- Liberal MPs Andrew Hastie (Canning) and Angus Taylor (Hume) face 100% and 98% chances of losing their seats to One Nation, respectively.
- DemosAU research shows Pauline Hanson’s leadership appeal (27% preferred PM) outpaces Angus Taylor’s (23%), with Barnaby Joyce polling above 20% if he led.
- RedBridge director Tony Barry noted One Nation’s vote may face an ‘unknown ceiling’ but is driven by ‘economic anxiety’ and frustration with the political system.
- The article highlights One Nation’s shift from attracting conservative Coalition voters to broader ‘protest voters’ since summer 2026.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC states the poll was conducted ‘during the Farrer by-election’ (implying full overlap), while NEWSCOMAU clarifies most research was done *before* the May 12 federal budget, with only a brief period covering the by-election.
- ABC frames the poll as a ‘snapshot of voter intentions now,’ while NEWSCOMAU emphasizes it as a ‘shock’ result that could ‘force Labor into a minority government,’ adding interpretive weight not present in ABC’s tone.
- NEWSCOMAU specifies One Nation’s 21 Queensland seats include 18 with ≥90% win probability, a detail not quantified in ABC’s article.
- ABC includes Albanese’s direct quote criticizing Taylor’s ‘migrants’ vs. ‘Australians’ language, while NEWSCOMAU omits this specific exchange entirely.
- NEWSCOMAU’s DemosAU poll (14–20 May) shows One Nation at 28% primary vote, but ABC does not cite this exact figure, only referencing the RedBridge/Accent Research seat projections.
Source Articles
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