Australia’s 2026 ski season outlook amid El Niño and climate change challenges
Consensus Summary
Australia’s 2026 ski season opened on June 10 amid mixed signals: early snowfall (20–40cm in Victoria and NSW) and strong resort interest contrasted with long-term forecasts of below-average snowfall and warmer temperatures due to El Niño. The Bureau of Meteorology warned of a 60–80% chance of drier, warmer conditions, while resorts like Thredbo and Perisher emphasized reliance on advanced snowmaking technology to mitigate risks. Climate models project ski seasons could shrink by 15–55 days by 2050, depending on emissions, with resorts diversifying into summer activities like mountain biking. Visitation trends show a decline from 2 million in 2015 to 1.7 million in 2024, though 2023 saw a rebound to 1.9 million. Economic output from Victorian alpine resorts exceeds $2 billion annually, supporting over 12,000 jobs, while cost-of-living pressures and rising lift pass prices (now often over $200/day) remain concerns.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts below-average snowfall for Australia’s alpine regions (except possibly Mount Mawson in Tasmania) for winter 2026, with above-average temperatures.
- El Niño is likely to form in the coming weeks, increasing odds of drier and warmer winter conditions in Australia.
- The 2026 ski season officially began on the King’s Birthday weekend (June 10, 2026), with 20–40cm of snow falling in Victorian and NSW alps before the weekend.
- Snowmaking technology (including 'snow factories' and all-weather snow guns) is being heavily relied upon to supplement natural snowfall, with some systems operating at temperatures up to 20°C.
- Australian ski resort visitation was 1.7 million in 2024 (down from 2 million in 2015), with a peak of 1.9 million in 2023 and a low of 901,000 in 2021 (pandemic).
- A 2024 Australian National University report projected ski seasons could shrink by 44–55 days by 2050 under current climate trajectories, or 28 days shorter if emissions are reduced.
- Perisher, Thredbo, Falls Creek, and Mount Hotham are among the major resorts reporting strong interest in the 2026 season despite forecasts.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for winter 2026 suggests a 60–80% chance of below-average rainfall and high temperatures in alpine regions.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Ruby Olsson (ANU researcher) stated the average ski season length could drop by 15–17% by 2030 due to climate change, based on the SkiSim2 climate model.
- Mia 'Miff' Rennie, a professional freestyle skier, noted a 'drastic' drop in snowfall and season length at Perisher over the past decade.
- Dr. Andrew Watkins (Monash University) observed that ski resorts now experience fewer regular top-up snowfalls and more 'big dumps,' with spring rain replacing spring snowfall.
- Josh Elliott (CEO of Snow Resorts Australia) mentioned resorts have invested in next-generation snowmaking systems operational up to 20°C above zero.
- A 2010 one-day lift pass cost ~$100; current passes often exceed double that, though Vail Resorts offered a $99 opening weekend special in 2026 (matching 2010 prices).
- Thredbo’s alpine coaster attracted 150,000 visits, and the resort is diversifying with mountain biking and hiking to ensure long-term sustainability.
- Alan Arthur (Alpine Resorts Victoria GM) stated resorts like Mount Buller and Mount Stirling rely on snow grooming, harvesting, and 'snow factories' to maintain coverage with just 2–3 decent snowfalls.
- Tim Cowan (University of Southern Queensland) noted that while El Niño reduces tropical moisture, big snow dumps can still occur from Antarctic blasts unrelated to El Niño.
- Michelle Lovell (Falls Creek Business Chamber) reported strong forward bookings despite forecasts, citing south-facing slopes that retain snow well for 10–14 weeks.
- Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce cited Australia’s Winter Olympics success (e.g., Josie Baff’s gold medal) as a draw for younger skiers and families.
- Mount Buller is planning a July event to welcome back Winter Olympians like Jakara Anthony.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian’s Jonathan How stated forecasts suggest daytime temperatures could reach up to 10°C next week, while the ABC did not mention specific temperature forecasts beyond 'unusually warm.'
- The Guardian reported Perisher’s Instagram account expressed excitement about early snow, while the ABC did not reference social media reactions from resorts.
- The ABC noted ski visitation peaked at 1.9 million in 2023, but the Guardian did not provide visitation numbers for comparison.
- The Guardian cited a 2024 ANU report on ski season shrinkage, while the ABC referenced an ARV/SGS Economics & Planning report on $2B annual economic output from Victorian alpine resorts without mentioning season length.
- Stuart Diver (Thredbo GM) told the Guardian he was 'pretty confident' of a good season despite BoM warnings, while the ABC did not quote any resort managers dismissing the forecasts.
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