Australia's 2026 ski season outlook amid El Niño and climate change impacts
Consensus Summary
Australia’s ski resorts are preparing for the 2026 winter season amid forecasts of warmer and drier conditions due to an emerging El Niño event. Both the Guardian and ABC report that the Bureau of Meteorology predicts a 60–80% chance of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures for alpine regions, though short-term weather systems may still deliver snow. Resorts like Perisher, Mount Buller, and Falls Creek have invested heavily in advanced snowmaking technologies, capable of operating at temperatures up to 20°C, to mitigate reduced natural snowfall. Climate models, including SkiSim2, warn of a 15–17% shorter ski season by 2030, while long-term trends show declining snow depths since the 1950s. Despite challenges, resorts remain optimistic, citing strong early bookings, the inspiration from Australia’s Winter Olympics success, and adaptive strategies like snow harvesting and grooming. Experts emphasize that while El Niño increases the risk of a poorer season, individual weather events—such as cold fronts—can still deliver significant snowfall.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a 60-80% chance of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures for Australia’s alpine regions during winter 2026 (June–August).
- An El Niño event is expected to form in the coming weeks, increasing the likelihood of drier and warmer winter conditions.
- Australia’s ski season officially opens on June 9, 2026 (King’s Birthday weekend).
- Snowmaking technologies at Australian resorts can now produce snow at temperatures up to 20°C above zero, improving operational certainty.
- Snow depths in Australia’s alpine regions have trended downward since the 1950s relative to the long-term average.
- Perisher, the southern hemisphere’s largest ski resort in Kosciuszko National Park (NSW), reported early snowfall ahead of the season opening.
- Australian ski resorts have used snowmaking technologies for over 35 years to supplement natural snowfall.
- The Australian National University and University of Innsbruck’s SkiSim2 model predicts a 15–17% reduction in average resort season length by 2030 due to climate change.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Alpine Resorts Victoria (ARV) invested in new 'snow factories' at Mount Buller and Mount Stirling, capable of producing snow in variable conditions.
- Mount Buller and Mount Stirling have a south-facing section where snow holds well, potentially extending the ski season to 10–14 weeks.
- Falls Creek began testing snow guns ahead of the 2026 season.
- Jindabyne’s Chamber of Commerce expects increased visitation due to Australia’s Winter Olympics success, including gold medalist Josie Baff.
- Mount Buller is planning a July event to welcome back local Winter Olympians, including Jakara Anthony.
- Ski resort visitation in Australia was 1.7 million in 2024 (down from 2 million in 2015) but rose to 1.9 million in 2023, with 901,000 in 2021 (pandemic).
- Victorian alpine resorts generate over $2 billion annually and support 12,000+ full-time jobs, according to an ARV/SGS Economics & Planning report.
- Ruby Olsson (ANU researcher) stated that greenhouse gas emissions scenarios show a stark difference in adaptation costs for ski resorts, with lower emissions making adaptation cheaper.
- Dr. Andrew Watkins (Monash University) noted that ski resorts now experience fewer regular top-up snowfalls and more 'big dumps,' with spring rain replacing spring snowfall.
- Professional freestyle skier Mia 'Miff' Rennie (Perisher’s home athlete) observed a 'drastic' drop in snowfall and season length over the past decade.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast suggests below-average snowfall for most alpine regions except possibly Mount Mawson in Tasmania.
- Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach up to 10°C next week, risking early snowmelt at resorts.
- Snow Resorts Australia CEO Josh Elliott emphasized that resorts are committed to adapting with next-generation snowmaking systems.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states that Mount Mawson in Tasmania may be an exception to below-average snowfall, while the ABC does not mention this exception.
- The ABC reports that ski visitation was 1.7 million in 2024, while the Guardian does not provide a specific visitation number for comparison.
- The Guardian cites a 15–17% reduction in resort season length by 2030 from the SkiSim2 model, but the ABC does not reference this exact figure.
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