Israel's 2026 election: Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot in a tight race for power

Consensus Summary

Israel’s 2026 election concluded in a razor-thin deadlock, with exit polls showing Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party each securing 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Neither bloc reached the 61-seat majority required to form a government, leaving the country in political limbo. The election, held on October 27, was framed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, which reshaped Israeli politics and sparked three years of conflict in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Voter turnout surged to 77-78%, the highest in more than two decades, reflecting the historic stakes of the vote. The Palestinian parties, representing 20% of Israel’s population, dramatically increased their representation, with projections of 18 seats combined, up from 10 in previous elections. This surge in Arab-Israeli voter participation could prove decisive in coalition negotiations, as both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out forming governments reliant on their support.

The election’s outcome underscores the deep divisions in Israeli society, with Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners—Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich—projected to secure only six seats each, a significant decline from their previous influence. Netanyahu, who has led Israel for 19 of the past 30 years, including terms from 1996 to 1999, 2009 to 2021, and 2022 to now, faced a unified opposition determined to oust him. His campaign focused on security threats, including warnings of an Iranian nuclear attack, while Eisenkot positioned himself as a reformer offering a break from Netanyahu’s prolonged tenure. The election also highlighted domestic challenges, including corruption trials against Netanyahu and growing international criticism of his government’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank, where settler violence has escalated. The Guardian notes that Netanyahu’s bloc suffered a ‘crushing defeat’ in voter sentiment, despite Likud remaining the largest single party.

Key figures in the election included Netanyahu, who addressed supporters at 3am after polls closed, declaring Likud the largest party and rejecting any government reliant on Arab parties. Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff from 2015 to 2019, called for Netanyahu to resign, framing the results as a vote of no confidence in his leadership. Both leaders faced pressure to navigate coalition talks, with the Palestinian parties emerging as potential kingmakers. The Guardian reports that Netanyahu’s campaign included fearmongering tactics, such as suggesting the left and Arab voters were attempting to ‘steal’ the election, a claim rejected by the Central Elections Committee. Meanwhile, ABC highlights the role of Palestinian citizens of Israel, who have historically had low turnout but mobilized in record numbers this election, potentially reshaping the political landscape. The election also saw the rise of new parties, including Yashar and The Democrats, formed from mergers of left-wing and centrist factions.

While both ABC and the Guardian agree on the core outcome—a tied election with no clear majority—they differ in emphasis and framing. ABC focuses on the technicalities of coalition-building, noting that Likud is projected to secure 25 seats while Yashar could secure 21-23, with Palestinian parties holding 18 seats. The Guardian, however, portrays the election as a broader rejection of Netanyahu’s rule, with his bloc tied at 51 seats and facing an uphill battle to form a government. Contradictions also arise in specific projections: ABC reports Likud securing 25 seats, while the Guardian’s exit polls initially suggested Yashar had a slight margin before shifting to a tie. Additionally, ABC provides more detail on individual party projections, such as the United Arab List securing 5-7 seats, while the Guardian aggregates Palestinian party seats without specifying ranges. Both outlets agree that if no government is formed within 42 days, a new election will be called, with Netanyahu’s current cabinet serving as a caretaker government.

The unresolved question hanging over Israel is whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot can secure enough support to form a coalition. The Guardian suggests Eisenkot could theoretically govern with Arab party support, despite ruling it out before the election, while ABC notes that all but one party have previously ruled out forming a coalition with the Arab parties. Netanyahu’s refusal to consider Arab support could further complicate negotiations, as the Palestinian parties’ 18 seats may be essential to reaching the 61-seat threshold. The election’s high stakes and fragmented political landscape mean that coalition talks could drag on for weeks, with the possibility of a new election looming if no agreement is reached. Both outlets emphasize the historic nature of the vote, with the Guardian calling it the most consequential in Israel’s history and ABC describing it as the most seismic in decades. The outcome will determine not only Israel’s next prime minister but also the country’s political trajectory in the face of ongoing regional conflicts and domestic challenges.