El Niño declared in 2026, with potential record strength and amplified climate impacts on Australia
Consensus Summary
In June 2026, the Bureau of Meteorology declared an El Niño event underway in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region exceeding the +0.8°C threshold and the Southern Oscillation Index at -23.3. Modeling suggests this could become the strongest El Niño on record, with potential warming exceeding 3°C above normal. While El Niño typically brings drier conditions to southern and eastern Australia from July to September, its impacts are being amplified by climate change, increasing risks of extreme heat, drought, bushfires, and coral bleaching. The event follows six consecutive years of either El Niño or La Niña, a rare streak historically. Experts note that while El Niño strength does not guarantee severe local impacts, climate change is making its effects harder to predict, with more moisture in the atmosphere potentially leading to intense but erratic rainfall. The last El Niño in 2023 resulted in Australia’s driest three-month period but weakened before summer, highlighting variability in outcomes. Both the US NOAA and Japan Meteorological Agency have also declared El Niño, though using different thresholds. Climate scientists warn that prolonged droughts and heatwaves are likely, though recovery depends on future rainfall patterns.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) officially declared an El Niño event underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean in June 2026.
- El Niño was declared after sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region exceeded the El Niño threshold of +0.8°C above average.
- The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is at -23.3, well beyond the El Niño threshold of -7, indicating high-pressure dominance over Australia.
- Modelling suggests this El Niño could become the strongest on record, with potential warming in the Niño3.4 region exceeding 3°C above normal.
- El Niño is expected to bring below-median rainfall for southern and eastern Australia from July to September 2026.
- The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Japan Meteorological Agency have also declared El Niño, though using different thresholds.
- Climate change is amplifying El Niño impacts, including increased risks of extreme heat, drought, bushfires, and coral bleaching in Australia.
- This El Niño follows a period of neutral Pacific conditions and is the first since 2023, with 2026 now on track to be the 7th consecutive year with either El Niño or La Niña.
- El Niño typically peaks in summer (November–January) and ends in autumn 2027, but climate change may prolong its impacts.
- The last El Niño (2023–2024) resulted in Australia’s driest three-month period on record (August–October 2023) but weakened before summer.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Felicity Gamble, BoM’s technical lead for extended prediction, stated: 'We have to keep in mind that we are in unprecedented conditions because of the global heat in the oceans.'
- The Climate Council warned of a 'dangerous double act' between El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.
- Amanda McKenzie (Climate Council CEO) said: 'The double whammy of climate pollution and El Niño will hit many of us hard.'
- The Guardian noted that the east-to-west trade winds are weakening, and pressure/cloud patterns are consistent with El Niño.
- The article highlights that past El Niño events coincided with lower winter/spring rainfall in eastern Australia, higher daytime temperatures in the south, and increased frost risk.
- ABC meteorologist Nate Byrne and Climate Council’s Andrew Watkins answered public questions about El Niño in a live blog.
- Andrew Watkins explained that El Niño events are cyclical (every 2–7 years) but their impacts are supercharged by climate change.
- Nate Byrne noted that Perth can expect a hotter and drier summer, though impacts wane westward, with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) playing a bigger role in WA.
- The ABC mentioned that the 2025/26 summer heatwave occurred despite weak La Niña conditions, showing variability in climate patterns.
- UNSW climate scientist Andrea Taschetto stated that climate models project stronger El Niño/La Niña events in the future, with more moisture in the atmosphere.
- University of Queensland’s Roger Stone said recent cutbacks to NOAA’s monitoring systems have made tracking El Niño harder.
- Stone noted that prolonged droughts (e.g., 1991–1995, Millennium Drought) were historically linked to moderate El Niño, not necessarily the strongest events.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states that the strength of El Niño does not 'necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia’s climate,' while ABC’s Roger Stone notes that the last 'super El Niño' (2019) had 'absolutely no effect on most of Australia,' implying a disconnect between strength and local impacts.
- The Guardian mentions that the 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires were not linked to El Niño, while ABC clarifies that the 2019/2020 fires followed a 2015–2016 El Niño and years of drought, not the 2019 event itself.
- ABC’s Nate Byrne says El Niño could last 'at least into 2027,' while Andrew Watkins specifies it 'typically peaks in summer and ends in autumn 2027,' with climate change potentially prolonging it.
- The Guardian emphasizes that past El Niño events coincided with lower rainfall in eastern Australia, while ABC’s Nate Byrne notes that the 2023 El Niño brought floods to eastern Australia despite drought risks, showing variability in outcomes.
Source Articles
BoM forecasts strong El Niño and warns climate change could amplify any effects on Australia
El Niño events linked with extreme weather around the world – and can increase risk of bushfires in Australia and coral bleaching on Great Barrier Reef Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Niño – the phenomenon linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia – is now locked in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The bureau warned climate change would amplify
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