Australia's declining trust in US/China, rising fear, and shifting geopolitical alliances

Consensus Summary

The latest Lowy Institute poll reveals a significant shift in Australian public opinion, marked by record-low trust in both the US and China, with 21% trusting Donald Trump and 20% trusting Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs. This marks the first time the two superpowers are distrusted equally, reflecting deepening skepticism toward global leadership amid rising fears of instability. Australians now feel more unsafe than at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 53% expressing unease, driven by concerns over economic downturns, cyberattacks, authoritarian states, and potential US-China conflict. Despite this, support for the US alliance remains strong at 73%, and the AUKUS pact enjoys steady backing at 68%, showing pragmatic recognition of America’s strategic importance. Meanwhile, attitudes toward China have softened slightly, with 61% now viewing it more as an economic partner than a security threat, though 62% still expect it to pose a military threat within 20 years. Domestically, there is a sharp decline in support for multiculturalism, with only 73% seeing cultural diversity as positive, down 20 points over two years, and 55% believing immigration levels are too high. The poll underscores a nation grappling with economic pessimism, geopolitical uncertainty, and a growing sense of insecurity, all while maintaining a cautious but firm stance on alliances and defense planning.