Australia's declining trust in US/China, rising fear, and shifting geopolitical alliances

Consensus Summary

Australians’ trust in both the US and China has plummeted to record lows, according to the latest Lowy Institute poll, with 21 per cent trusting US President Donald Trump and 20 per cent trusting Chinese leader Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs. The poll, conducted among 2,000 Australians with a 2.2 per cent margin of error, reveals a nation grappling with deep-seated fears, including a 53 per cent sense of global insecurity—higher than the 50 per cent recorded at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Support for an Australian nuclear deterrent has risen to 39 per cent, while concerns about immigration and cultural diversity have surged, with 55 per cent now saying Australia has too many immigrants and only 73 per cent viewing diversity as positive—a 20-point drop over two years. The findings mark a historic shift, as Australians increasingly see China as a greater military threat than the US, with 62 per cent expecting Beijing to pose a danger within 20 years, despite a slight dip from last year’s figures.

The decline in trust stems from a broader erosion of confidence in global institutions, exacerbated by Trump’s unpredictable leadership and China’s expanding military ambitions. The Lowy Institute, which has tracked Australian sentiment for 21 years, notes that while support for the US alliance remains robust at 73 per cent, it has fallen seven points since last year. Meanwhile, the AUKUS pact, announced in 2022, retains strong backing at 68 per cent, reflecting a pragmatic recognition that Australia’s security depends on balancing ties with both superpowers. Analysts like Sam Roggeveen warn of a shifting military balance, with China projected to field 25 nuclear-powered submarines within a decade and triple its nuclear arsenal by 2035, while spending trillions annually on defense—a trend the US appears unable to reverse. The poll underscores a growing dual skepticism among Australians, who distrust both Trump and Xi equally but remain divided over whether China’s rise is an economic opportunity or a security risk.

Key figures, including Lowy Institute researchers Charles Lyons-Jones and Sam Roggeveen, emphasize that Australians are not abandoning the US alliance despite their disapproval of Trump. Lyons-Jones notes that while trust in the US has hit a record low of 31 per cent, 73 per cent still view the alliance as important for security, a figure that has held firm despite Trump’s 'America First' policies. The ABC highlights that Japan, Germany, and New Zealand continue to enjoy high trust levels, with 89 per cent of Australians confident in Japan’s responsible behavior—a contrast to the US’s declining credibility. Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that economic pessimism is driving some of the shift, with 59 per cent of Australians now doubting their country’s economic prospects over the next five years, up 22 points since 2022. This financial anxiety may be influencing perceptions of China as a necessary trade partner, even as military threats loom.

The articles diverge in emphasis, with SMH and THEAGE focusing on the geopolitical threats and Roggeveen’s projections of China’s military expansion, while ABC and the Guardian highlight domestic economic concerns and shifting public attitudes toward multiculturalism. The Guardian, for instance, reports a 17-point drop in support for multiculturalism—from 90 per cent in 2024 to 73 per cent—describing it as the largest single movement in the poll’s history. ABC, however, frames the rise in trust toward China as a pragmatic response to Trump’s policies, noting that 61 per cent now see China primarily as an economic partner, up 11 points from last year. These differences reflect broader debates: Is Australia’s wariness a reaction to Trump’s unpredictability, China’s aggression, or a combination of both? The Guardian also uniquely attributes some of the shift to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s acknowledgment in May that the US under Trump is 'playing a different role,' signaling a more cautious approach to the alliance.

Unresolved questions linger over whether Australia’s growing distrust of both superpowers will lead to deeper strategic realignment or further isolationism. The poll suggests Australians are not rushing to abandon the US alliance, but the narrowing gap in trust between Washington and Beijing signals a potential turning point. Roggeveen’s warnings about China’s military buildup—including its plans for hypersonic missiles and a tripling of its nuclear arsenal by 2035—underscore the urgency of Australia’s defense planning. Meanwhile, the economic pessimism reported by the Guardian and ABC could further complicate policy decisions, as Australians weigh the risks of alienating either power. With Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party capitalizing on rising fears of immigration and cultural change, the political fallout may extend beyond foreign policy, reshaping domestic debates about national identity and security in the coming years.