Rising national security anxiety among Australians ahead of potential foreign military threats and crises
Consensus Summary
A new Australian National University study reveals deepening national security anxiety among Australians, with nearly half (45%) expecting a foreign military attack on Australian soil within five years and two-thirds (66-69%) anticipating involvement in a foreign conflict. The surveys, conducted between November 2024 and February 2026 across 20,000 participants, show a sharp rise in concerns—particularly among young adults aged 18-24—driven by global instability, terrorism (post-Bondi attack), and perceived government unpreparedness. Over 85% of respondents believe climate change, AI threats, economic crises, and supply disruptions are imminent, yet fewer than one in five feel the country is adequately prepared. While all sources agree on the scale of anxiety, the Guardian emphasizes economic disruptions and catastrophic consequences, ABC highlights distrust in political messaging, and SBS focuses on generational shifts. Contradictions exist in exact percentages for conflict likelihood and age-group breakdowns, but the core narrative of rising fear and perceived vulnerability remains consistent.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, with additional focus groups and interviews
- Nearly half (45%) of Australians believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely, very likely, or almost certain within five years (July 2025 data)
- Two-thirds (66-69%) of Australians surveyed in 2026 consider involvement in a foreign military conflict within five years likely to almost certain
- Concerns about terrorism rose sharply from 55% in late 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025
- More than 85% of respondents believe climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions are likely by the end of the decade
- Less than one in five Australians surveyed felt the country was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of the 15 listed threats
- The study was led by Professor Rory Medcalf, Head of the Australian National University’s National Security College
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The study found three in five Australians (60%) were worried about national security in February 2026, with the sharpest increase among 18-24-year-olds (55% in 2026 vs. 22% in November 2024)
- 69% of those polled in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a military conflict overseas likely to almost certain within five years
- 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% rated it 'catastrophic'
- Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, causing supply disruptions
- Australians expressed concern that governments share too little information about national security threats and distrust politicians while viewing the media as exploiting fears
- Security agencies like ASIO and AFP were seen as highly trustworthy, but politicians and media were perceived as untrustworthy or exploitative
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for 'clearer communication from government' to avoid panic or hysteria
- The survey highlighted a desire for a 'national conversation about preparedness' rather than panic, with respondents prioritizing resilience against multiple shocks
- The report explicitly states a 'dramatic rise in the number of young Australians worried about national security'
- The SBS headline focuses on 'global wars driving national security fears among young Australians'
- The report includes 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions alongside the 20,000 surveys
- The headline emphasizes 'more than half of Australians believe war likely in next five years' as the core takeaway
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian reports 69% of Australians considered foreign military conflict likely in July 2025, while ABC states 70% expect involvement in conflict within five years (no specific month)
- The Guardian mentions 45% of Australians considered a foreign military attack 'likely, very likely, or almost certain' in July 2025, but ABC does not specify the exact percentage for this exact phrasing
- The Guardian highlights 60% of Australians worried about national security in February 2026, while ABC does not provide a direct percentage for this exact timeframe
- The Guardian notes 55% of 18-24-year-olds worried about security in 2026, but ABC does not specify age-group breakdowns for security concerns
- The Guardian explicitly states 85%+ of respondents believed AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, etc., were likely, while ABC does not provide exact percentages for these specific threats
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