Rising national security anxiety among Australians and perceived underpreparedness for future threats
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged dramatically according to a comprehensive ANU report based on over 20000 consultations, revealing that nearly 70% of Australians expect military conflict involvement within five years and 45% believe a foreign military attack is probable. The data, collected before the US/Iran conflict, shows heightened concerns across demographics, particularly among young adults, with terrorism fears rising sharply after the Bondi Beach attack. Over 85% of respondents identified multiple threatsâclimate change, AI attacks, disinformation, and economic crisesâas likely, yet most feel the nation is underprepared and the government shares insufficient information. While all sources agree on the scale of anxiety and perceived underpreparedness, interpretations differ: the Guardian emphasizes social cohesion and front-door security concerns, while NEWSCOMAU and ABC focus on military and informational responses. Contradictions include regional disparities in concern levels and varying critiques of political messaging, with the Guardian uniquely linking fear to multiculturalism debates and political exploitation.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National Universityâs National Security College conducted a three-volume report titled 'No Worries? Australian attitudes to national security, risk and resilience' based on over 20,000 surveys, 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions between November 2024 and February 2026.
- 45% of Australians believe a foreign military attack on Australia is 'probable' within the next five years, according to surveys from July 2025 and February 2026.
- Nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, with 68% in July 2025 and 70%+ in later surveys.
- Concerns about terrorism rose sharply from 55% in 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025.
- Over 85-89% of respondents identified climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis, and supply disruption as 'more likely than not' to affect Australia in the next five years.
- Most Australians feel the nation is underprepared for security threats and believe the government shares too little information about risks.
- The ANU report was published prior to the current US/Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The report highlights a sharp rise in national security anxiety among 18- to 24-year-olds, from 22% to 55% over the 15-month research period.
- The report explicitly states 'The cumulative picture is of a public that knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and â while aware the issues are complex â is open to knowing more.'
- The article mentions 'landmines' metaphor used by Pauline Hanson regarding One Nation's election gains in South Australia, though this is not part of the ANU report itself.
- The Guardian frames the report as revealing that 'national security starts at their front door' rather than territorial borders, emphasizing social cohesion, economic precarity, and trust in information ecosystems.
- The article criticizes political parties like One Nation and the opposition for exploiting fear by conflating social cohesion with multiculturalism, using phrases like 'the Australian way of life' to stoke division.
- It quotes Julianne Schultz's personal experience with One Nation's rise and fall in 1998, linking it to the current political climate.
- The Guardian highlights a stark contrast between Canberra residents (least worried) and the rest of Australia, noting Canberra respondents were more concerned about climate crisis, misinformation, and critical infrastructure than terrorism or foreign military attacks.
- The article references the Scanlon report on social cohesion and the Susan McKinnon Foundation report on democratic resilience as supporting evidence for structural issues.
- The ABC notes that security agencies like the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and ASIO have high trust and credibility, while politicians and media are seen as exploiting fears.
- The ABC includes a direct quote from Rory Medcalfe: 'The public seems to get that. That really puts a burden on government and the policy community to ask the question: how prepared are we, how resilient are we as a nation to be able to deal with multiple shocks at the same time?'
- The ABC emphasizes that fewer than one in five respondents thought Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of the 15 listed threats, including foreign military attacks, economic crises, or pandemics.
- The ABC mentions that the survey did not ask respondents to name specific countries that might pose a threat.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian suggests Canberra residents were the least worried about terrorism and foreign military attacks, while NEWSCOMAU and ABC do not mention this regional disparity in concern levels.
- The Guardian frames the ANU report as a call for investment in social and economic infrastructure, while NEWSCOMAU and ABC focus more on military preparedness and information sharing as primary responses to public anxiety.
- The Guardian explicitly criticizes political parties for exploiting fear by conflating social cohesion with multiculturalism, a claim not directly addressed or supported by NEWSCOMAU or ABC.
- The Guardian references Pauline Hanson's 'landmines' metaphor as a political distraction, but NEWSCOMAU presents it as a direct quote from Hanson without further commentary on its implications.
- The ABC notes that security agencies like ASIO have high trust, while the Guardian does not mention this distinction between agencies and politicians/media in its analysis.
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