Rising Australian national security anxiety and perceived threats over next five years
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged according to a comprehensive study by the Australian National University’s National Security College, which surveyed over 20000 people between late 2024 and early 2026. The research reveals that a majority of Australians—ranging from 68 to 72 percent—believe their country will face foreign military conflict within five years, with 45 percent expecting a direct foreign military attack on Australian soil. Concerns about terrorism have also spiked, particularly after the Bondi Beach attack in late 2025, with 72 percent now viewing it as a serious threat. Beyond military threats, respondents widely anticipate other crises, including climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, economic instability, and supply chain disruptions, with over 85 percent considering these likely. Despite these fears, most Australians feel their government is underprepared to handle multiple simultaneous shocks, and there is significant distrust in political messaging while security agencies like ASIO and the AFP retain public trust. The study highlights a public demand for clearer communication from authorities, though some worry excessive information could fuel panic. Global conflicts, such as the ongoing US-Iran tensions, have further amplified these anxieties, with young Australians showing the sharpest increase in concern. The findings underscore a growing burden on policymakers to address both preparedness and public communication about national security risks.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College surveyed over 20,000 Australians between November 2024 and February 2026, with additional qualitative data from 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions
- 68-72% of Australians surveyed in 2025-2026 believe Australia will be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years (ABC, NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
- 45% of Australians expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil within five years (ABC, NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
- 72% of Australians rated domestic terrorism a serious concern in February 2026, up from 55% in November 2024 (ABC, NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
- More than 85% of respondents considered climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions likely within five years (NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
- Less than 20% of Australians surveyed felt the country was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of the 15 listed threats (ABC, GUARDIAN)
- The Bondi Beach terror attack (December 14, 2025) significantly increased public concern about terrorism (ABC, NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
- Head of ANU’s National Security College is Professor Rory Medcalf (ABC, NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
- The survey data was collected before the current US/Iran conflict (February 28, 2026) (NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Security was stepped up ahead of memorial events following the Bondi shooting (ABC only)
- The survey captured views before the current Iran conflict broke out (ABC only)
- Two in three Australians considered it likely that Australia would experience 'unprecedented' natural disasters or another global pandemic (ABC only)
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, ranging from a foreign military attack to economic crises or another global pandemic (ABC only)
- Professor Medcalf said the public is open to a national conversation about preparedness to build confidence in resilience (ABC only)
- The AFP and ASIO were found to have high levels of trust and credibility, but politicians and media were seen as exploiting security concerns (ABC only)
- The survey found that a majority of Australians want more information from leaders on threats but others fear too much information could cause panic (ABC only)
- The report is titled 'Australian National University’s National Security College Community Consultations report' (NEWSCOMAU only)
- The sharpest increase in national security anxiety was among 18- to 24-year-olds, from 22% to 55% over 15 months (NEWSCOMAU only)
- The report states the public knows security risks are real, doubts preparedness, and is open to more information (NEWSCOMAU only)
- The survey tracked a substantial increase in national security anxiety, with almost two in three people now listing it as a concern (NEWSCOMAU only)
- The study was conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, preceding the latest Israel and US war on Iran (GUARDIAN only)
- Federal energy minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war (GUARDIAN only)
- The federal government was working to replace the tankers but conceded there would be 'bumps in supply' in the coming months (GUARDIAN only)
- The study found that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences' and 36% rated it 'catastrophic' (GUARDIAN only)
- The report shows a dramatic rise in the number of young Australians worried about national security (SBS only)
- The focus is on how global wars are driving national security fears among young Australians (SBS only)
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC states that 70% of Australians expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, while NEWSCOMAU and GUARDIAN report 68-72% (ABC vs. others)
- ABC reports that 45% of Australians expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil, but GUARDIAN states this was rated the greatest concern with 43% seeing it as 'major consequences' and 36% as 'catastrophic' (ABC vs. GUARDIAN)
- NEWSCOMAU claims the survey data was collected prior to the current US/Iran conflict, but ABC specifies it was collected before the current Iran conflict broke out (NEWSCOMAU vs. ABC)
- GUARDIAN mentions that the lowest concern was an onshore attack by a foreign military, but ABC and NEWSCOMAU emphasize it as a significant concern (GUARDIAN vs. others)
- ABC and GUARDIAN both mention the Bondi Beach terror attack in December 2025, but NEWSCOMAU states it occurred on December 14 last year (year discrepancy unclear)
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