Rising national security anxiety among Australians and perceived government unpreparedness
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged according to a comprehensive study by the Australian National University’s National Security College, which surveyed over 20,000 people between late 2024 and early 2026. The research reveals that nearly 70% of Australians expect their country to become involved in a military conflict within five years, with 45% believing a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely. Concerns have intensified across all age groups, particularly among young adults aged 18 to 24, where anxiety about national security rose sharply from 22% to 55%. Threats like climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, economic crises, and supply disruptions are seen as highly probable by over 85% of respondents. The study also highlights a widespread perception that Australia is underprepared to handle these challenges, with most Australians wanting more transparent communication from government but wary of poorly managed information releases that could cause panic. While ABC, Newscomaustralia, and SBS emphasize traditional security threats such as terrorism and foreign military action, the Guardian underscores broader concerns about social cohesion, economic precarity, and the need for better information sharing beyond military spending. The research was conducted before the current Iran conflict but after the Bondi terror attack, which significantly heightened fears of domestic terrorism. The findings present both a challenge and an opportunity for policymakers, as Australians appear open to national conversations about resilience but demand clear, actionable steps to address their concerns.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys of over 20,000 Australians between November 2024 and February 2026, with additional focus groups and interviews
- Nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years (ABC, Guardian, Newscomaustralia, SBS)
- 45% of Australians believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely within five years (ABC, Guardian, Newscomaustralia)
- 72% of Australians now consider terrorism a serious threat, up from 55% in late 2024, following the Bondi terror attack (ABC, Newscomaustralia)
- More than 85% of respondents believe climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions are likely within the next decade (Guardian, Newscomaustralia)
- The survey was conducted before the current Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026 (Guardian, Newscomaustralia)
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated the public is concerned about national security and wants more information from government (ABC, Guardian, Newscomaustralia)
- Over 60% of Australians believe the country is not prepared for major threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or critical infrastructure attacks (ABC, Newscomaustralia)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Security was stepped up ahead of memorial events following the Bondi shooting, with 55% of Australians considering terrorism a serious threat in late 2024, rising to 72% by February 2026
- The survey captured views before the current Iran conflict but after the Bondi terror attack, with 70% of Australians surveyed expecting a foreign military attack on Australian soil
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, with fewer than one in five thinking Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of them
- Politicians were considered untrustworthy, and the media was thought to exploit security fears, while security agencies like ASIO and AFP had high trust levels
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for clear communication from government to avoid panic or hysteria, with Australians wanting more information but cautious about poorly managed releases
- The report 'No Worries? Australian attitudes to national security, risk and resilience' was a three-volume study revealing that national security anxiety starts at Australians' front doors, not borders
- Canberra residents were the least worried about traditional security threats like terrorism or foreign military attacks, instead focusing on climate crisis, misinformation, and critical infrastructure
- The Guardian criticizes political parties like One Nation and the opposition for exploiting national security fears to score short-term political gains, conflating cohesion with multiculturalism
- The report highlights a mismatch between Canberra’s security priorities and those of the broader community, with the latter prioritizing safe communities, economic prosperity, and robust democracy
- The Guardian suggests social cohesion, economic infrastructure, and better information sharing are key to addressing national security concerns, rather than just military spending
- The article references the Scanlon report on social cohesion and the Susan McKinnon Foundation report on democratic resilience as supporting evidence for structural issues
- The headline focuses specifically on how global wars are driving national security fears among young Australians, without additional detailed data
- The report included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions across the country, in addition to the 20,000 surveys
- The survey found 68% of people considered it 'more likely than not' Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict in the next five years (July 2025 data)
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian suggests Canberra residents were the least worried about traditional security threats like terrorism or foreign military attacks, while ABC and Newscomaustralia do not differentiate regional concerns in their reporting
- The Guardian implies that the ANU report may be used to justify increased military spending, but ABC and Newscomaustralia do not explicitly address this potential use case
- The Guardian criticizes political parties for exploiting national security fears, while ABC and Newscomaustralia do not include this political critique in their reporting
- The Guardian highlights that the ANU report was a three-volume study with detailed focus groups and submissions, but ABC and Newscomaustralia only mention the 20,000 surveys without elaborating on the broader research methodology
- The Guardian notes that the ANU report defines national security as starting at Australians' front doors, emphasizing social cohesion, while ABC and Newscomaustralia focus primarily on traditional security threats like foreign military attacks and terrorism
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