Democratic victory in Florida special election flips Trump-endorsed GOP seat near Mar-a-Lago
Consensus Summary
Democrats secured a surprise victory in Florida’s 87th state house district special election, flipping a seat held by a Republican who won by 19 points in 2024. Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate with no political experience, defeated Trump-endorsed Jon Maples in a district including Mar-a-Lago, winning by 2.4 percentage points. The win follows a pattern of Democratic gains in special elections nationwide since Trump’s return to office, with 29+ seats flipped. Trump’s use of a mail-in ballot—despite his public criticism of the practice—added symbolic tension. Sources agree on the district’s Republican lean (Trump won it by 17 points in 2024) and Gregory’s focus on affordability issues, but differ on framing: Democrats emphasize a broader ‘blue wave,’ while Republicans dismiss the result as a low-turnout anomaly. Guardian sources highlight Florida’s shifting voter sentiment over economy and policies, while ABC focuses on Trump’s contradictory voting behavior and the district’s historical GOP dominance.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate, won Florida’s 87th state house district special election on 2025-06-10, flipping a seat previously held by Republican Mike Caruso (2024 winner by 19 percentage points).
- Donald Trump endorsed Republican Jon Maples in the race, calling him ‘backed by so many of my Palm Beach County friends’ and switching his personal residence to Mar-a-Lago during his first term.
- Gregory won by 2.4 percentage points (797 votes) in a district encompassing Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach County’s Trump estate.
- Trump voted by mail in the special election despite publicly criticizing mail-in voting as a source of fraud.
- The district’s previous Republican incumbent, Mike Caruso, resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk in 2024.
- Democrats have flipped 29+ state legislative seats since Trump’s return to office in January 2025.
- Gregory owns a fitness company specializing in pregnant and postpartum women and has no prior political experience.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Donald Trump’s White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales defended his mail-in ballot use, stating the president’s opposition to universal mail-in voting was about ‘commonsense exceptions’ (illness, disability, military, travel) not individual accommodations.
- A Brookings Institution 2025 report found mail voting fraud occurred in 0.000043% of total mail ballots (≈4 cases per 10 million votes).
- Emily Gregory described her victory as a ‘fairly out-of-body experience’ and ‘pretty shocked’ during post-election media interviews.
- Trump distanced himself from the loss, saying ‘I’m not involved in that’ despite endorsing Maples, who lost by 17 points in 2024.
- The article notes Trump’s 2024 Florida voter registration switch from New York to Florida during his first term.
- Former Republican strategist Rick Wilson (co-founder of the Lincoln Project) stated Florida’s ‘return to the center’ is driven by affordability issues like property insurance and healthcare costs.
- Reuters/Ipsos poll (2025-06) showed Trump’s approval rating at 36% with only 29% supporting his economic handling.
- Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) plans to raise $50 million for 2025 state legislative races, targeting Arizona and New Hampshire.
- Florida’s 28 congressional seats include 20 held by Republicans, with no Democrat winning statewide office since 2018.
- Independent voters in Florida exceed 3.3 million, described as a ‘wild card’ for midterm turnout shifts.
- Brian Nathan won Florida’s 14th state senate district byelection, and Miami elected its first Democratic mayor in 28 years (Eileen Higgins, December 2024).
- The article highlights Trump’s unpopularity in Florida despite his economic rhetoric, citing tariffs and deportation policies as voter frustrations.
- Emily Gregory, 40, is a fitness center owner for women and framed her campaign as addressing ‘kitchen table issues’ like healthcare and property costs.
- The Associated Press called the race for Gregory on 2025-06-10 with her leading by ‘more than 2 percentage points.’
- Jon Maples faced allegations he did not live in the district, which he denied.
- 314 Action (a pro-science PAC) endorsed Gregory, calling her win evidence of a ‘STEM wave’ and praising her ‘evidence-based’ approach.
- Heather Williams (DLCC president) tweeted ‘Mar-a-Lago just flipped red to blue,’ framing the win as a ‘giant blue wave’ signal for midterms.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC states Trump’s mail-in ballot use was ‘a non-story’ per White House, while Guardian 1 and Guardian 2 emphasize its symbolic contradiction to his anti-mail-in rhetoric.
- ABC reports Gregory’s margin as 2.4 percentage points (797 votes), but Guardian 2’s headline omits the exact margin, only stating ‘more than 2 percentage points.’
- Guardian 1 cites a DLCC strategy memo limiting 2026 ambitions to reducing Republican supermajorities in Florida, while Guardian 2 does not mention this internal strategy.
- ABC notes Trump’s 2024 Florida voter registration switch from New York, but Guardian sources do not specify the exact year of the switch beyond his ‘first term.’
- Guardian 1 describes Trump’s approval rating at 36% (Reuters/Ipsos), while ABC does not provide a recent approval rating figure.
Source Articles
Democrats flip seat in Florida district home to Mar-a-Lago resort
Democrats celebrate the victory as the latest sign voters are turning against Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections....
Could a Democratic triumph in Florida be a bellwether of a blue wave in red state midterm elections?
Emily Gregory’s victory in district that includes Mar-a-Lago has revitalized the party before the crucial November vote Sign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inbox Ca...
Democrats flip seat in Florida state house in district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Emily Gregory defeats Republican Jon Maples in district that is home to US president’s Palm Beach estate Democrats managed to flip a seat in the Florida state house in the district that is home to Don...